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Thursday, January 10, 2008
Matt Towery :: Townhall.com Columnist
Live from New Hampshire: National Media Prove They're Completely Out of Touch
by Matt Towery
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Was the Copenhagen Global Warming Summit Walk-Out a Win for the U.S.?


We finally have conclusive evidence that the national TV networks are completely out of touch with reality. Let me share with you exactly how a series of events led to their inevitable conclusion that Barack Obama was a cinch to win the New Hampshire Democratic Primary, which he didn't. Hillary Clinton won.

Watching some of the broadcast anchors waiting for election returns Tuesday night from quaint New Hampshire university towns was a scream. Their wishful thinking -- and broadcasting -- that Obama might somehow come storming from behind to rescue their polling and their pundits was so obvious that even the water-cooler gang at their offices were laughing Wednesday morning.

The real story of this media farce starts in Iowa. Thankfully, our firm, InsiderAdvantage, was one of a handful of national pollsters that had in our final polls both Democrat Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee winning their respective races in Iowa.

Most of the major cable news networks got the races wrong in both states. What's even more interesting is that they're usually more accurate than they have been over the past week in Iowa and New Hampshire.

What happened to them was what I call the Des Moines Register effect. The Iowa newspaper conducted its own poll of that state's caucuses, and the D.C. Beltway folks decided to crown it as the definitive poll in Iowa.

In my view, they should have said it was the definitive vote-persuader in Iowa.

Since most pollsters in Iowa didn't ask the critical question of who Democratic poll respondents would select as their second choice if their first choice didn't win at least 15 percent support on the first "ballot," these pollsters didn't have the benefit of seeing what we saw the night after the Register's poll was released: That Obama suddenly had a large lead where he hadn't before that influential poll came out.

These "second choice" voters, who up until then had been planning to vote for John Edwards, "mysteriously" started to drift in a big way towards Obama.

When the Register declared along with their poll release that a huge percentage of political independents were going to participate in the Democratic caucuses so that they could help Obama, the poll became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Remember that in a state as small as Iowa, a pronouncement of such a startling shift in momentum can charge up voters overnight. Our tracking poll provided ample evidence of exactly that.

And so Obama Fever hit. Some reporters told colleagues that they had a hard time covering Obama because he was so charismatic and refreshing that they couldn't help but like him. And the writing of Hillary Clinton's obituary commenced.

What everyone forgot is that New Hampshire is not Iowa. New Hampshire voters love to do two things. First, they love to vote contrary to traditional wisdom. Second, they love to play games with pollsters. That's why when it comes to polling, we stay as far away from New Hampshire as we can.

The fact is the D.C. media establishment has become as out of touch as the D.C. political establishment. Both probably still don't realize that the economy has become the big concern of voters.

Their "inside baseball" analysis sounds plain silly. Consider Carl Bernstein's comment that, basically, Hillary Clinton's win in New Hampshire meant that she was running the campaign now, not Bill.

Give me a break. It doesn't take a political whiz to know that Hillary's recent teary moment and Bill's argument that Obama is a fantasy candidate being treated with velvet gloves by the media, were both deliberate strategies right out of the mastermind of one William Jefferson Clinton, the smartest Democratic campaign strategist alive.

And as for the Republicans, one analyst stated that John McCain won in New Hampshire because he was early on considered the national Republican front-runner, and Republicans always nominate the front-runner.

Sure thing. Tell that to the Ronald Reagan campaign of yesteryear.

In the coming days, this caravan of outdated and under-informed media elites will be rolling through places like South Carolina and Florida. Because these states have more subtly nuanced demographics than any states up to now in the presidential season -- such as race for the Democrats and moderates versus religious conservatives for the Republicans -- we will have a chance for some real entertainment.

But it will likely be some time before these media dukes and duchesses ever learn to let go of their own biases long enough to get proper exposure to the real world -- even after they witnessed it firsthand Tuesday night in New Hampshire.

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About The Author
Matt Towery is a former National Republican legislator of the year and author of Powerchicks: How Women Will Dominate America.
 
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It was the weather, stupid!
I'm a town moderator for a small NH town and here's what happened in NH: The ice had melted off the sidewalks and everyone that could crawl to the polls came out to vote.
The nursing home crowd surging through the doors pretty much guaranteed a closer race than the pollsters had predicted. And a lot of those votes were anti-Obama rather than pro-Clinton.

Fraud Robert, aka "Frobusto"
Wow...

That was really "on topic".

Is seeing your name at the top of the comment thread THAT important to your fragile ego?

Primus54
Careful or Frobusto will get on the "bat phone" (short for moonbat phone) and call for backup with his echo chamber buddy, his alter ego, Hal Dorkahue.

One Excuse
Re the N.H. polling debacle (or is it Obacle), Rasmussen pollster says it got tripped up by 38% of the voters making up their minds in the last 3 days. I don't remember reading that a qualifier as to the projected winners. Pollsters sometimes get lucky and get it right. Don't ask the weather experts for their latest projection of the hurricanes for next season. They are not even sure about the true number for the season past.

When the curtain closd in the booth
most Democrats and independents admitted to themselves that Frat Boy Obama had no chance of being elected in wartime, with a recession possible to boot. And they decided to pull the lever for Her Shrillness.

Iowa is a vote for Class President and Obama was the guy who wanted the job the most. But making a summer out of that one swan was like cheering Peugeot for leading the first two laps of the 24 Hours of Le Mans (unless you are French.) Try again in August.

Obama met the perfect storm
...interesting article. Regarding Obama in NH, I might add:

1) The youth vote is irresponsible and doesn't actually vote.

3) Obama is an "image" candidate, not an issues candidate. "Image" candidates attract attention, but not committed voters. It's easy to stay home if an interesting TV show is on, or whatever, when you're going out to vote for an "image" candidate.

2) Independents supporting Obama, believing that Obama was already the clear winner, either voted for McCain as a republican "can't win spoiler" or, stayed home.

Maybe it bears checking
The Diebold optical scanners used in about 60% of the New Hampshire precincts have been proven to be quite hackable. The documentary "Hacking Democracy", aired by HBO in the fall of '06 demonstrated this pretty effectively.

I think it would be interesting to compare the results in the precincts where the votes were hand-counted with those in precincts where the Diebold scanners were used.

While it's probable that voter vacillation accounted for Hillary's win, it's my understanding that the known problems with the Diebold machines have not to date been addressed in New Hampshire.

Smart Voter Backlash?
I am of the opinion that many voters are not allowing the media, the pollsters and, pundits to dictate who we should vote for and worse who can even be considered a viable candidate.

A note to Republicans: THIS doesn't have to be a "Dem Year" as we are being told it will be by the elite chattering class inside the Beltway, on TV and, in newspapers across the land.

A few instances of voter backlash in support of my theory...

Iowa - It was not by coincidence that Fred Thompson's numbers spiked (more on the Luntz groups on my blog) when he refused to raise his hand in response to moderator (an oxymoron?)Nurse Wretched's Global Warming opening salvo(was that actually a question?) from the liberal left.
People in the focus group sent Fred's numbers soaring. It certainly looked to me like people connected. It gave them a feeling of having their own presence on stage and, of having the fortitude to not play the media game. I think it was something many more outside the focus group felt as well.

NH - Forget that the pollsters got it wrong again there. Mrs Bills comeback there might possibly be explained by something as mundane as voter fraud... Funny, I actually thought at least one of her competitors would claim as much (they clanged a free throw). But I digress...

FoxNews - Honestly...isn't it a bit early to be whittling the Candidates down or weeding anyone 'out' at this stage? Where were U.S. Congressmen Paul and/or Hunter?
Then to have moderator, Chris Wallace admit he actually directed most questions to the top three?? Three what?? Most important? What was the criteria used? - The voters ask. Thanks for the effort BUT I prefer to pass on that kind of streamlining for now.

W/O=


Media Bigots
The New Hampshire primary truly did expose the bigotry and foolishness of the national media. Chris Matthews was all over himself, blaming voters for lying to the pollsters. Blaming others is becoming a popular past-time with the celebrity media.
Ohg.
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/01/09/clinton-and-obama-exp ose-media-bigots/

Hurricane Obama
I think the pollsters mispredicted the results in both campaigns because they are using the same computer models that the Gore-Bull Warmies used to predict a heavy Hurricane season for the last two years.

Garbage in, garbage out.

Ohg Rea Tone - I think the difference
in the polls has to do with the fact that so many people:

1) Screen their calls with Caller ID

2) Don't have a land line.

3) If they get a pollster calling them, they hang up the phone.

Therefore, they get a skewed sampling, because anyone smart enough to avoid talking to them don't get questioned. Sorta like the smartest people avoiding jury duty.

The pollsters probably got all the Oprah voters answering their phones.

its quite simple
obvioulsly this author has his own agenda (and his own polling operation) but the polls had the mccain victory correct and as far as iowa the idea of a self-fulfilling prophecy is sophmoroic thinking at best.

hillary won because women saw her emotional frustration and angst.

even my wife who is not particularly political and not a hillary supporter per se said "why don't they just leave her alone".

i lieterally heard this echoed by a number of women interviewed.

secondly, the indies went to mccain instead of obama.

thirdly, the youth vote (surprise) didn't materialize for obama.

i am surprised he did as well as he did quite honestly.

One more thing about younger voters

1) They don't tend to vote.

2) Boomers still outnumber them.

3) Old people vote because they are P.O.ed about marginalized. The more that the self-appointed culture gurus dismiss the Boomers, the angrier they get. If anyone thinks the gray mafia is active now, just wait!

The Media ain't out of touch...
The Media ain't out of touch, they are pushing their agenda. The Media has for years helped voters (SHEOPLE) decide on who they were going to vote for.

The Internet & Talk Radio have enter society as a medium that is allowing individuals an opportunity to know the truth, and these New Mediums are quite easily demonstrating the MSM's transgressions. Prior too the Internet, those who had a different opinion or those who new the facts were not allowed the forum to educate the voters and the American People.

The Media has violated their profession to report the facts, neutrally, and are not held responsible for their blatant lies and misrepresentations.

This must be changed, but how without further Government intervention and risks to our Freedom of Speech. Any wonderful ideas out there. I have noticed that americansolutions.com where individuals are allowed an oppty to provide ideas does not address this issue.

Another issue, what to do about the NEA and Academia, who have indoctrinated our Young to their ideals and have violated the concept of education. That concept is to teach both sides of an issue and allow the brain of each individual to massage the information and choose their own beliefs. This is not being done today. In fact, they choose to do the opposite and shut up and penalize those who favor a different opinion.

I Agree
with your 3rd point Mountain Rose unless you are thinking it is not a Republican problem as well.

I recently had a discussion with a purported Huckabee supporter who assured me that the "moral" Christian community wasn't adverse to having a "Big Government" if it suited the writers' wing of the party's purpose?? Even hinting that Fiscal Conservatives had no morals and should 'move over'! I had a hard time believing he was really a Republican but what if he was...
Another Huckabee supporter (in NH) said he was registering & voting for Huckabee "because he plays a guitar". Would anyone venture a guess as to what party that guy belongs with?

What is to become of the Reaganites? Who will best follow the lessons of Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater?

Fact #1: We will never again have another Reagan, another Goldwater. Not this cycle, not ever. They were unique.
Fact #2: We do have a Thompson.

W/O=

Watching the circus
ReligiousLib, you might want to tell your wife that "they" don't need to leave Hillary alone because she volunteered for this when she went into politics! LEAVE HER ALONE?!?! She's running for President of the most powerful nation on earth! She wants to be the Commander in Chief who sends my friends into battle against REAL bullets. "Leave her alone" my sainted aunt...sheesh...if she didn't have a skin tougher than an Abrams tank, she wouldn't - and shouldn't - be where she is now.

Jimmy D is right - the msm got it wrong because they 'report' what fits their own agenda. What crap. These days, I try my best to ignore them.

Did Hillary Cheat?
Several polling stations ran out of ballots; were they in districts favorable to Obama? I realize that with an other candidate this might seem paranoid, but these are the Clintons.

And a note to Barack Obama: when killing a vampire it is not enough to drive a stake through its heart, you must also chop off its head. And Hillary's heart is hard to find.

what's funny is...
that we mindless idiots in the real world are suppose to bow to the choices made by two of the smaller populated states of our union (we aren't even suppose to realize Romney won "gold" in Wyoming, another sparsely populated state one would think would meet the same obvious? qulaifications of NH and IA).
I mean Huckleberry only won IA because of those crazy "evangelicals" so we are to discount that win, and Romney only won Wy which must be inhabited by cowboy yokles so forget any national indicators out of that election, but ol' McCain won NH by what, a plurality and 5% points over Romney, so he's the instant GOP champion. forget that he won in NH by less than he did in 2000 or that Romney actually won among registered Republicans...you know that "straight talk" McCain, he's on the way to Washington. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

grandmakarla
although i understand your point, a woman running for president is unique and i was simply relating the visceral reaction of some women to that moment.

now whether they thought it was unfair or whether they saw hillary in a more human light, either way, that moment changed the minds of some women who had not intended on voting for hillary.

FOX NEWS CAVES INTO RON PAUL
FOX NEWS CAVES INTO RON PAUL SUPPORTERS

MBO-Following the New Hampshire primary, six Republican candidates will attend Thursday night’s debate in Myrtle Beach, state party officials said today.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee have all accepted their invitations, said Rob Godfrey, spokesman for the state Republican Party.

“The stakes couldn’t be higher this election, and we couldn’t be more excited to extend a warm South Carolina welcome to six White House hopefuls who are seeking the Republican nomination,” said Katon Dawson, chairman of the state GOP.

READ MORE
http://controlcongress.com/uncategorized/fox-news-caves-int o-ron-paul-supporters


Dumb column
It doesn't take a conspiracy theory to figure out why the actual election results were different from the polls taken a few days before the primary.

Hillary's tear-shedding episode brought her more support from women. The polls were right--women just changed their votes after seeing/hearing Hillary cry.

How can somebody who's too uninformed to know this actually get a national column?

New Hampshire Punditry

Towery's agenda is clouding his analysis
What is Matt Towery talking about?

"Thankfully, our firm, InsiderAdvantage, was one of a handful of national pollsters that had in our final polls both Democrat Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee winning their respective races in Iowa."

Actually, his firm was one of many who got that right. Some got it more right than his. (See RCP)


"...these pollsters didn't have the benefit of seeing what we saw the night after the Register's poll was released: That Obama suddenly had a large lead where he hadn't before that influential poll came out."

Actually, his firm had Clinton +1 before the Register and Obama +1 after the Register. Wow, that's a huge jump!


How come "the weather" is always to blame when turnout is low, but when it is nice, as it was in New Hampshire, no one seems to think it didn't impact the older (Clinton) vote?
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