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Thursday, August 16, 2007
Matt Towery :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Real Issue In 2008
by Matt Towery
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Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


This spring, I reminded readers about a 2006 column of mine. That original column warned that America was headed off a cliff with its commitment to a bloated housing market, and that the mortgage industry would come tumbling after.

In March, I amplified on these themes with the suggestion that the real-estate slowdown had started. I offered that the impact on the financial world might stretch far beyond U.S. borders.

Piddling underneath the dark clouds of this gathering storm has been Congress, with its endless train of investigations into everything from the U.S. attorney general to "the sport of wrestling."

President Bush, meanwhile, is so obsessed with Iraq that he might as well move there.

Those outside the insulated bubble of Washington, D.C. -- remember us? -- nevertheless recognize the real issue for the 2008 elections.

It goes something like this: Am I about to lose everything I gained from those days when Alan Greenspan reversed the Fed's policy of instituting multiple hikes in interest rates?

You remember: The interest-rate increases Greenspan implemented to "cool off" the economy, the increases that triggered a recession.

We recovered from that Greenspan blunder only after the Great One reversed engines and started cutting interest rates as fast as he had raised them.

The trouble is that this monetary finagling created a gold-rush mindset among Americans. The nation was informed that the only lasting wealth was land ownership. Land, that is, that many purchased with the bank's money, upon which borrowers then borrowed again to use as a giant credit card to pay for the good life.

Now we're seeing that the underpinnings of the American economy aren't as stout as thought. Greenspan's wild ride has left his Fed successors and government leaders with a big fat mess.

Mark it: In the coming months there's a strong likelihood that a full-blown economic panic will grip this country.

How can the economy be strong when we have lost manufacturing to other emerging nations, when we're taxing our citizens to pay for the well-being of Americans and everybody else in the world, when we have citizens with negligible personal savings, and when we have an aging population that thinks early, lavish retirement should be an entitlement?

Trust me. We're in a five-alarm financial mess. Anybody who thinks the situation is limited to the so-called "sub-prime lending" world is crazy. There are plenty of standard loans out there with borrowers worried sick about making payments -- on their properties, yes, but often on home-equity loans.

And neither political party has the slightest concept of what to do. The Republicans have committed to endless war with endless costs, all the while giving huge tax breaks to oil companies.

From the Democrats come repeated calls to repeal tax cuts "for the wealthy," which would only punish those who make just enough money to buy goods or provide jobs to others.

Unless we create a special "you're-too-darn-rich" tax that forces those like Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, George Soros and Oprah Winfrey to pay taxes at an 80 percent rate, any tax hike on the "rich" will only accelerate economic decline.

Newt Gingrich blasted President Bush this week, saying that Bush and Congress should return from vacation and pass a bill that expatriates illegal aliens who break the law.

That's fine, but not enough. Gingrich is aiming to hit a hot-button issue the public cares about. But he and every other politician who's a slave to Washington consultants and pollsters don't realize that while the public may be angry about immigration, they may be becoming terrified over the economy.

Deal with what really matters, guys. One thousand people this week alone lost their jobs when a non-sub-prime lender went bankrupt.

Consumer spending and confidence are about to crash. The stock market is now artificially supported by infusions of federal cash printed so rapidly that the ink hasn't dried.

Want an issue to bring Congress and the president back from vacation? You just found it.

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About The Author
Matt Towery is a former National Republican legislator of the year and author of Powerchicks: How Women Will Dominate America.
 
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©Creators Syndicate
Yep
My 401 has been tanking faster than the Titanic.

Sucks!

DriveClean
Not to change the subject but everytime I visit Townhall the spam DriveClean takes over my browser. My antivirus software blocks it but it is very annoying. Anyone else experiencing this?

MATT TOWERY NEEDS TO GO BACK TO SCHOOL
Matt, you need to re-educate yourself out of the CFR GLOBALIST Keynesian School of Economics and attend a few RON PAUL seminars!

Maybe Larry Kudlow and Ron Paul can both help you rethink where you got off on the wrong track and help you get back on the right track!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_vPUqPTims


I don't often disagree, Mr. Towery...
...but this time I must.

The "issues" for 2008 will be the same as the ones for 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006: trustworthiness and competence. The voters didn't turn out the Republican majorities in 2006 over any particular policy matter. No, not even Iraq. They voted as they did because the incumbent Republicans had failed to live up to their self-engineered images. The voters didn't refuse to anoint Al Gore, VP of a propsperous, peaceful administration, because of any particular policy issue, but because Gore was so plainly a liar and an incompetent, prone to taking credit for others' accomplishments and quoting Bible verses inaccurately, yet unable to distinguish between Michael Jordan and Michael Jackson.

In the trustworthiness/competence races, the GOP has the tiniest of edges. It could yet disappear completely -- and that would tip the race to the Deomcrats. Or it could swell with a late-inning burst of demonstrated fidelity to Republican promises of low taxes, Constitutionally limited government, and the absolute priority of the defense of the realm, in which case the GOP majorities would return under a President Thompson or Giuliani and the Democrats would be cast back into the darkness.

We shall see.

Please, people....
The only candidate that understands the financial mess we're in and actually TALKS about it is Ron Paul.

http://www.ronpaul2008.com


Econ101: "Sowell vs. Krugman
- the debate of the century"

There hasn't been anything like this since 1925, when Jennings and Darrow clashed in Dayton, TN - in the trial that came to be called the Scopes Monkey Trial.

Now, coming soon to a television screen near you - brought to you by the Fox(N) and CSPAN(Z) faux networks - a debate that will provide definitive answers to a divided nation on crucial economic questions of the century such as "What is the correct role of Government in American Economics".

A clash of Titans - panel leader Krugman (for the Left) and panel leader Sowell (for the Right).
-------------------excerpt ends------------------
To read the article, visit http://voice.townhall.com

pianogirl -- Anything New????????
You show up at all TH blogs with your silly Ron Paul political banner. It will not work. Ron Paul WHO? You and the other blogger will not convince the other 50 million voters to change.

TeeHall
Ignore Ron Paul at America's own peril.

Timely article.
It appears likely the economy will be a much more important issue in '08 than is currently thought.

Lowery nails it. It not only is the apprehension of loss of jobs that worries many Americans, but the effect the likely economic downturn(or possibly far worse)has on their savings, their 401s, their retirement.

If the economy is as sour in '08 as some believe, it will hurt GOP prospects in the elections. I say this not in a gleeful sense.

For although I totally reject Bush's disastrous crusade to democratize the mideast(our nation will be living with the negative consequences of this crusade for generations to come)the democrats are controlled, like puppets on a string, by the radical interest groups, especially enviro extremists.

I fear any policies enacted by democrats, at the behest of these enviromental fanatics, will hurt the U.S. economy.

Excuse me
Towery, not Lowery.

Did anyone see the movie, "Brazil"?

Great movie, and the name confusion is relevant.

The solution
is easy. Lower the interest rate.

Here's the short term fix
Congress's solution to the mess caused by their continual manipulation of markets, is not to begin to undo the tangled, unfathomable web of interdependent special interest laws; it will be to add 100 million new Americans to the economy.

It will bolster things for a while, but it will drive up the cost of everything and it will drive this country to an even lofter brink of disaster, once our resources and/or environment hit a rough patch. ANd at that point, it will be every man for himself.

And by the way
Unless the Republicans make immigration the centerpoint of their '08 campaign, they will lose the 08 election to the MSM and the Clintonistas.

If, by some miracle, they dare to run the immigration gauntlet, they can sweep into office with majorities in both houses, and set about righting this leaky ship.

How's that for flowery intercourse?

To H20skier
Yes! It looks very official too. I have no helpful ideas, either.

The poor get poorer
The economic downturn will happen as predicted, but lets not forget that it will result in a transfer of wealth from the disadvantaged to the rich as designed by the Federal Reserve Corporation. Thanks to our fiscal policies we are also forced to project our military might around the world to protect the dollar.

The poor get poorer
The economic downturn will happen as predicted, but lets not forget that it will result in a transfer of wealth from the disadvantaged to the rich as designed by the Federal Reserve Corporation. Thanks to our fiscal policies we are also forced to project our military might around the world to protect the dollar.

h20skier writes:
RE: DriveClean

Same thing here. Still trying to find a solution. I've even e-mailed the TH to see what is going on with it.

No reply yet.

Markets go up then down then up

.....Matt ...

.....your article is a pile of giberish ...

.....a dollar invested in the stock market in the 1800's would be worth millions today ...markets go up and down by their very nature ...even the great depression could not stop the market ...

.....Smart investors see recessions and dips as buying oppertunitys ...a depressed market is a garage sale of solid stocks at bargain basement prices that have nowhere to go but up ...men like Warren Buffet have made themselves rich by buying companies that were on the ropes during a recession ...

.....Only fools sell stocks when the market is falling ...remember the old cliche ...buy low sell high? ...

.....As for what the 2008 election is all about it is simple ...broken down to base elements ...If you think Socialism is the answer ...then vote for the Democrats ...

.....If you think our Republic is worth saving and fighting for ...then vote for the Republicans ...

.....GW was given both houses of Congress and he blew it by trying to be Bi-Partisan ..."he was a uniter not a divider", he said and he dragged the Party left into Democrat territory ...

.....2008 offers the conservatives a second chance to get it right if they nominate the correct leader ...Socialism and Free Markets are diametrically opposed ideologies ...there can be no compromise .....COLOSSUS

As for the econony....
The best solution to fix the problems is to pass HR 25/S 1493 as it is written, then stand back and let the markets show what they can do.

The biggest economic fear I have is the election of a Democrat for President and their continued control of congress after the next election cycle. Why? Higher taxes.

"I want to take those profits" - Hillary Clinton 2007

"the tax cuts may have helped you. We're saying that for America to get back on track, we're probably going to cut that short and not give it to you. We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good." - Hillary Clinton 2004

Great Blog Comments
Your comments were 100% on point! Thank you baseballdoc.
Incidentally, not all Republicans are created equal. The best of the best has to be Mitt Romney. He is on the mark in every critical area facing our Nation. It is amazing to see how the Left criticizes his every move, how his victory in the Iowa straw poll is slighted by the inuendo that it was due to "buying" of the vote---rather than the truth that a majority of Iowans feel his platform of strong economy, strong family and strong military is the obvious best course for the Nation.
With the economic problems facing our Nation, is it not the wisest course to have a man of problem solving ability at the head? Duh! Who has demonstrated that ability over and over again in every position of trust he has been given.
There is no doubt that Clinton will win her party's nomination. What a tragedy that we have to put up with her lies, her socialist propaganda, and the threat of losing our Nation, our Constitution, and every Christian value with ilk like her as a mainstream choice. Ugg.

Bankruptcy
They should all just declare Bankruptcy, The lending organization allowed this situation to occur because of their greed. So now every citizen, who should have known better, is in a bind. Their rates and taxes went up (big surprise). Once all these people declare Bankruptcy the government will bail out the banks as usual spreading the misery. That way the shakers and movers won’t be hurt and we can all just pay a little more. Or as someone previously stated they could lower the interest rates. OH they don’t want to do that? Maybe it’s because some inflation will push more of us up a tax bracket. Sorry if I sound paranoid.

Something to remember
A 401K is a long-term investment. The market goes up and down between now and retirement time. When it goes down, your contributions are buying low - (say) Microsoft at $28 instead of $35. 401K's work because the market goes up in the long run.

The Real Issue In 2008
Sounds like Warren Small is a racist and a very small minded person.

The chicks have come home to roost
If the economy tanks, and, regrettably, I think it will, the Democrats will take George Bush's numerous optimistic speeches about our "robust economy", place them in television commercials, and use them to politically slaughter the GOP in '08.

This will be an effective tactic.

When the overall health of our economy is in dire straits, financial, quick-fix gimmicks may alleviate the superficial problems, but the underlying faults will simply manifest themselves further on down the road.

That is what we are witnessing now.

Americans individually have amassed something like $14,000 in credit card debt, on average. This does not include debt for home mortgages or auto loans. They have refinanced and taken what equity was in their homes and gone on spending sprees.

"American" corporations have moved capital, both intellectual and physical, overseas, gutting our manufacturing base, the result being high paid manufacturing jobs have been replaced by lower wage service jobs in health care and retail trades.

This administration, along with some democrats, had been promoting globalization schemes, resulting in the lowering of American standards of living, while raising the standards of living of our 3rd world trading "partners".

The chicks have all come home to roost now.

P.S...a slight correction.
Depending on the source, American household consumer debt(credit card debt), ranges from $7,000 to more than $11,000.

What a relief. Cough.

Between globalization, immigration &...
taxation, our politicians are going to be the death of this country's economy yet! Exporting our manufacturing jobs while clamoring to allow more immigrants into the country to take all the available farming jobs & you get a situation of people not being able to find replacement jobs if they lose their job. Getting more 'education' isn't going to be much help. The employers who need highly educated employees are importing them from India instead of hiring Americans. The next President should be someone intelligent enough to find solutions for these problems (like maybe Ron Paul) instead of acting ignorant of the fact that our economy is in serious trouble.

jerabau OK but
Its not just this administration Clinton took the same position as did many previous administrations.

Duncan Hunter
"Trustworthy and competent" describes only one candidate. Duncan Hunter can win the nomination and the election. No other GOP candidate is seen as either trustworthy or competent. The two mentioned by Mr. Porretto, and the rest of the MSM darlings are shifting scenes and reading new lines throughout the show. Duncan Hunter Is
A Straight Shooter. Duncan Hunter Walks The Walk.

Government Spending
Couldn't find a good place to put this, but knew that the folks here would appreciate it.

Nearly a million dollars to ship two washers to a base in Texas?

http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2007/08/pentagon_paid_what_for_two_19c.html

Dead wrong
We did indeed have a housing bubble which is now slowly but surely dying out, and may snowball into a stampede over the financial cliff. However this isn't an election issue. No one campaigns on housing mortgages, much as no one campaigns on transfats in McDonald's foods. My vote will be cast on the basis of social positions. You're trying to tell me it'll be due to economics. We're both outside of the mainstream here on how people will cast their ballots.

It's not the economy, stupid. It's the war.

It's the War
http://eteraz.org/2007/08/14/us-comptroller-slams-us-economic-inequity/

More BUSH borrowing than all other previous presidents COMBINED!

If you think that it's other things, you're not paying attention.

to Truth First and Last
Excellent 11:05am post.

Major dittos!

Major GAG on Hillary the commie/socialist who INTENDS to destroy our nation!

h20skier, et al
Townhall is probably activating the DriveClean spyware already on your computer. Try removing the .exe file using the Add or Remove Programs control panel, if you haven't yet. Otherwise, you may want to try AdAware or Spybot to remove all traces of DriveClean before logging on to Townhall again.

Townhall should not/can not be able to execute DriveClean on your computer all by itself.

Hope that helps.

BrianR, 12:44am post
I hope you're still making regular contributions to your 401(k); if you are, you're getting to add cheap shares to your portfolio. And if retirement is 5 years or more down the road, you'll be happy that today's purchases have lowered the average cost-per-share of your investments.

The only real threat to your portfolio (outside of cataclysm) is the election of H.C. to the White House. If you see that coming, I'd want a bit more cash in my portfolio to cushion the inevitable slide.

Thing to do now is to bust your buns to make sure she doesn't get there!!!!

Bush vs Reality
My favorite Bush line heard lately is "There is no inflation" (he actually said this on TV about a week ago). Here is what I paid this morning at the supermarket: $2.69 for a half-gallon of milk, $4.59 for a box of Shredded Wheat, $1 for one orange, $3.69 for a loaf of bread, $1.91 for two zucchini squash in the month of August, $5.32 for two small filets of catfish. I do understand that the cost of food is not calculated in the inflation rate. I wonder whether I am the only American consumer who finds that deceptive.


The real issue in 2008!
The real issue in 2008 is...aliens! Real, live, aliens. One of my friends who frequents Area 51 told me just last night that the federal government is doing its best to conceal the fact that over 90% of the illegals are really from Tau Ceti 5! That's why it's been so hard to round them up, what with their cloaking devices and transporter technology and all.

My friend also told me that the aliens sometimes abduct people and--I swear I'm not making this up--turn them into supporters of gay marriage! The horror, the horror.

There's only one defense--starting immediately, all decent Americans (that means conservatives) have to wrap their heads with tinfoil. That's the only thing that blocks the alien mind-rays.

The politician who can save us from this menace can only be....[Sorry, I forgot my tinfoil...]

Humor from a Liberal?

.....A little out of character n'cest pas? ...

..... Liberals do not do humor well but nice try .....COLOSSUS

BadBoy
You are GOOD!!!

I. Scary Sound Bites Do Not Equal Facts
Is this column meant to inform or frighten? If the latter, nice job, because it certainly doesn't fairly present the facts:

Towery's assertion seems to be that you can borrow to buy a house, then borrow again against that house as you see fit. The fact is, you borrow on the equity that you either put into the house when you bought it or that was created through property value appreciation. If owners were "borrowing, then borrowing again," it was because they had equity value at the time the loans were made. Property values have flatlined or declined in some areas, so the equity in some homes is now worth less. This is why some home equity loans and zero-down loans are now underwater. The lenders that made these loans available and the investors that bought securities collateralized by these loans are the ones that are suffering, as is appropriate. The difference between now and 1997 - 1999 is that there is substantial liquidity in the market waiting to buy these now-distressed loans at the new values. Lenders and investors that got too loose over the last couple of years will reset to more conservative credit standards. If there is a panic, it will be because irresponsible members of the media fanned the flames of what is a containable issue.

The mortgage company that filed bankruptcy, American Home Mortgage, was a leader in the subprime sector that originated many of the poorly underwritten loans. And the number of layoffs was closer to 600. But what the hell, 1,000 sounds better.

Tight money did not create the 2001 recession. The tech bubble and business overinvestment were two of many contributing factors. If Towery has not heard of the business cycle he should not be writing on economic matters. From where I sit Greenspan helped to engineer one of the softest landings from a bubble economy in U.S. history, limiting the recession to one fiscal quarter.

II. Scary Sound Bites Do Not Equal Facts
No one "informed" the U.S. public that the only safe investment was land. This was during a period where the S&P consistently posted double-digit returns year-over-year, yet we are expected to believe that some omnipotent investment manager told everyone to plow money into real estate?

Are there people afraid of missing payments on sub-prime, prime and home equity loans? I'm sure there are. But the U.S. economy is at full employment, wages are up and even with recent developments defaults remain below historical averages.

More manufacturing jobs have been created in the last 10 years than have been lost, at higher wages. If we lost three million jobs to overseas manufacturers but created eight million, wouldn't you way we're better off?

So Towery's ultimate suggestion is that Congress should return from vacation and save us by doing...what, exactly? The market has swiftly and mercilessly punished lenders and investors who abandoned good business sense and overadvanced against inflated real estate asset values. Those loans are now being revalued and will change hands between willing buyers and sellers. What exactly is Towery trying to convince Townhall readers that the government could do (other than the mercifully politically neutral Federal Reserve providing liquidity over the last week) that would not make matters worse? Restrict future lending? Bail out the very lenders that created these problems for themselves?

It is this kind of selective reporting that underminds any argument and is routinely used by the MSM to scare up better ratings. How else to explain that more than 2/3 of Americans believe that we are in a recession right now, despite one of the longest economic expansions (6 years) and bull markets (4+ years) in U.S. history? Towery, give your readers all of the facts and trust them as adults to make their own judgments, rather than selective half-truths designed to support your chest-pounding.

FairTax
Sign HR 25 into law and that will start "The Fix." Before long, people will start getting pissed off that the Imperial Federal Gov't steals 23% of their spending and gives it to someone else, so they'll demand the gov't do less. Pretty soon, we'll be electing representatives who only run on what they think the rate will be, and then the soap opera that is Washington DC will no longer be much of a concern to the average citizen. Then we can focus on real issues that gov't is responsible for, like capital punishment and contract enforcement.

Francis W. Porretto writes:
Thursday, August, 16, 2007 5:41 AM
"I don't often disagree, Mr. Towery...
...but this time I must.

The "issues" for 2008 will be the same as the ones for 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2006: trustworthiness and competence. The voters didn't turn out the Republican majorities in 2006 over any particular policy matter. No, not even Iraq. They voted as they did because the incumbent Republicans had failed to live up to their self-engineered images. The voters didn't refuse to anoint Al Gore, VP of a propsperous, peaceful administration, because of any particular policy issue, but because Gore was so plainly a liar and an incompetent, prone to taking credit for others' accomplishments and quoting Bible verses inaccurately, yet unable to distinguish between Michael Jordan and Michael Jackson..."
=====================
I echo your sentiments!

It wasn't the war - it was and continues to be the lack of trust - where we can actually believe that members of Congress and presidential candidates will have the best interests of our country at heart.

ETHICS!

FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY!

ELIMINATE ALLLLLLLLL EARMARKS!!!

SECURE THE BORDERS - DEPORT ALLLLL ILLEGALS - BUILD THE DARN FENCE - ENFORCE THE CURRENT LAWS!

These are all important matters that need the immediate attention of all candidates, congressional and presidential.

This will be a huge issue
come election time if things continue as they are until then.

baseballdoc
I agree, this article is mainly gibberish. Matt should have taken a few more econ classes in his undergrad days.

Consumer spending will slow, the baby boomers have spent themselves into bankruptcy borrowing against home equity. Now, retirement is looming and they still owe 100% or worse of the value of their homes. Too bad, so sad. This mini-crisis is mostly media manufactured. Even if the fed wanted to lower rates to assuage the crisis du jour, they may be unable to. The fed funds rate is proving that the market is imposing higher rates whether the fed likes it or not. Thus, the economy is doing just fine and may even be overheated. The business cycle is called a cycle for a reason.

Blaming a person's propensity to overspend on monetary finagling by the fed is really reaching. I am starting to think Mr. Towery may be batting for the other team. Blame everything on the government and then make them even more powerful in order to set things right. Makes about as much sense as pouring gasoline on a fire.

The US Dollar is next after housing
This economy is designed to tank. Watch in the next 3-5 months, the dollar will fall faster than the housing market.

These elites are buying up Euros, B. Pounds, and oil.

I have got my money out of the dollar and am investing in companies that are yielding 6-12% in companies that yield dividiends.

There is going to be a hyperinflationary recession for 5-7 years in this country.

2008 elections
Christians, Republicans and conservatives had better vote for who they would like as president or this nation is not going to be what it once was. We will not recognize it as the GOOD OLD U.S.A.Trust me , I am an EX Canadian. God bless America!!!!

No Relief in Sight
The best thing the government can do to help the American ecomonoy is to leave it alone. When you make economic policy based on politics, everyone suffers.

Look this country is past it's hay day. Not only are we tremendously overtaxed, but we're sold down the river by both political parties, relegated to generators of tax revenue and having politician's will imposed on us.

This government does not represent its people, that's why Congress has a 30% (or so) approval rating. Let's face it, we, the people are fed up, and the politicians are doing a great job of trying to justify why they screw everything they touch up.

1. We need a thrid political party
2. We need the end of the "electoral college"
3. We need power tranferred back to the people.
4. Political brainwashing via the government-media complex is rampant.
5. Lack of personal responsibility is killing this country.

Socialist liberals like Hillary Clinton will do to this country what Chavez is doing to Venezuela. And they will convince us why it is so wonderful.

Of course we could disagree, but then we will end up in "re-education" camps.

This country has lost its way.
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