President Ford and Senator Bob Dole adopted conciliatory and neutral stances and both lost their Presidential elections. In 1976 Ford, possibly the weakest incumbent in American history, fell to Jimmy Carter in a surprisingly close race. Carter won 51% of the popular tally and 297 electoral votes. Democratic analysts sensed trouble ahead since Carter dominated only in the South, but he did just enough elsewhere to win. In 1996 President Bill Clinton handily dispatched Dole, claiming 49% of the popular vote to 41% for the Republican champion, with 8% going to the Reform Party candidate, Ross Perot, who garnered a surprising large percentage as a third-party candidate (although this was down substantially from his 1992 total) precisely because of convictions and passion. Voters identified with his outrage over taxes, and his chutzpah in forging ahead and putting his money where his (outspoken) mouth was. Ross Perot, an unknown in the early 1990s, became a household name by shooting from the hip and not mincing his words. Minor candidates split the remaining two percent of the votes. Clinton, whose ethical problems and character shortcomings were already common knowledge, rolled up 379 electoral votes in a clear and convincing victory.

Will John McCain repeat the mistakes made by President Ford and Senator Dole and join the ranks of failed Republican Party candidates? What does seem crystal clear is that a candidate with no vision, no firm ideological convictions, and a penchant for alienating his natural base of support faces a very difficult challenge on the first Tuesday in November. With his seemingly conciliatory position on abortion, as displayed by his recently entertaining the idea of a pro-choice Vice Presidential candidate, he does little to distinguish himself from his opponent, a man who voted against life support for infants born after botched abortions. Conservatives have no reason to vote given such choices.

John McCain needs to repeat what he did in the interview with Rick Warren at the Saddleback Church on Saturday. His voting record on abortion, for example, demonstrates his convictions on life with action. Now he needs to send a strong message to voters. He needs to cling to those convictions with the same tenacity he clung to his patriotism and life itself while a prisoner of war in Vietnam.

Then he needs to say it to the American people—loud and clear, and with conviction.

Brian E. Birdnow has a Doctorate in American Political History and teaches at a university in the St. Louis area. He is currently writing a biography of Gerald R. Ford. Dr. Birdnow can be contacted at bebirdnow@aol.com.