OK, so we learned some big things from "the thumping": Voters
don't like corruption, or the mess in Iraq.
Here are some other things I learned in the '06 elections:
Americans aren't anti-immigrant; they are
pro-assimilation.
In Arizona, more than 70 percent of people voted for four
state ballot initiatives on immigration: English as the official
language, stripping illegal aliens of the right to bail, denying
illegal aliens state-subsidized benefits (adult education
programs and child care, among others), and denying punitive
damages in lawsuits. Yet according to exit polls, when asked how
they prefer to treat illegal immigrants, Arizonans picked "a path
to legal status" over "deport them" 57 percent to 38 percent.
But they hate it when people get away with breaking the rules.
In the Weekly Standard, Frank Luntz reports: "Among the Americans
who swung from the GOP to the Democrats (Republican Rejecters),
'unethical and illegal behavior going unpunished' was number two
on the list (behind illegal immigration)." Let me rephrase what
Luntz is saying here: Among voters who switched from the GOP to
the Dems this election, illegal immigration was the No. 1
issue.
Evangelical is the new black.
African-Americans are the most reliable voting bloc for
Democrats. Despite Ted Haggard, Mark Foley, Dick Armey, John
Ashcroft, Ryan Sager, David Kuo, and all the other sophisticated
efforts to persuade evangelicals that the GOP is simply cynically
using them, evangelicals turned out. According to The New York
Times, "white evangelicals and born-again Christians made up
about 24 percent of those who voted, compared with 23 percent in
the 2004 election." Seventy percent of them voted GOP, compared
to 72 percent in 2004. Evangelicals alone may not be enough. But
without them, Republicans are nowhere.
You may beat a so-called gay marriage ban, as long as you
never use the word "marriage" ... or "gay."
In 2004, gay rights made a variety of arguments against these
amendments, including "don't write discrimination into the
Constitution." In 2006 in Arizona, gay rights groups poured money
into a new strategy. Here's how the Houston Chronicle reports it:
"Opponents practically erased gays from their arguments in the
months leading to the vote, focusing instead on the impact the
law could have on unmarried couples in general. ... The group's
advertisement points out the approach they decided to take. There
were no photos of gay couples. The ad ... features photos of a
young heterosexual couple, a child and two elderly heterosexual
couples." Continued... |