While energy and other commodity prices have experienced a wicked plunge since the summer, in recent days -- ahead of the Fed’s new policy decision -- the dollar has fallen and commodities have rebounded. But the question is this: In the future, will the Fed be able to unwind its huge cash-liquidity injections? The same can be asked about government bailouts for banks and quite possibly Detroit. Yes, this is an emergency. But it’s also unprecedented government intervention in the economy. How we restore traditional free-market capitalism remains unsaid and unknown. That is worrisome.
Stocks cheered the Fed’s move by rallying nearly 400 points on Tuesday. Savvy investors Ken Heebner and Robert Doll -- two financial and political conservatives -- strongly endorsed the Fed moves on CNBC. This massive easing almost certainly underscores the likelihood that stocks bottomed on November 20. Both the monetary surge and the upturn in equities are pointing to economic recovery next spring or summer.
Meanwhile, on the fiscal policy front, everyone has been focusing on Obama’s huge big-government-spending infrastructure play. But Team Obama is also drawing up plans for a massive purchase of mortgages in order to get long-term borrowing rates down to 4.5 percent -- a full percentage-point drop. The specifics are sketchy, but there’s no question the Obama Treasury, led by Tim Geithner, will be working hand-in-glove with Geithner’s former Fed boss Ben Bernanke to drive down mortgage rates and stop the housing slump.
Perhaps Bernanke himself scored a few points with his historic shock-and-awe easing move. It’s as though Bernanke is telling the new president: Hey, I’m on your team.
But I still believe the best economic stimulus would be a move to cut tax rates across-the-board for individuals and businesses. No matter how much money the Fed prints, or how many roads or mortgages Uncle Sam buys, none of it creates new incentives for private enterprise, risk-taking, and investment.
To complement the Fed’s easy money, permanent tax cuts would increase the production and investment that would soak up the excess money and create non-inflationary growth. Alas, supply-side tax cuts are nowhere to be found right now.
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