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Friday, October 10, 2008
Larry Kudlow :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Light at the End of the Crisis
by Larry Kudlow
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Fear and panic have taken over the stock market, the banking system, and the economy. It is one of those moments in history when people feel helpless, frustrated, and bewildered about what’s going on and why it’s happening.

Stocks are being pummeled in ways we haven’t seen in nearly a century, both here and overseas. The Dow Jones is down nearly 20 percent this week, its second worst week since December 1914. The S&P 500 dropped over 20 percent in what looks to be the worst week in the history of that index (going back to 1928).

Behind all this, the credit system is completely frozen. Banks are now loathe even to lend to each other in the overnight markets that are so vital to the daily financing of American business. And the profits outlook is deteriorating badly, sparking fears that we may have a deep and prolonged recession.

And yet, much good may ultimately come of this terrifying correction.

I commend everyone to read the Wall Street Journal op-ed of Friday written by John Steele Gordon, an eminent financial historian. Gordon writes that there have been financial panics roughly every twenty years throughout American history. He goes all the way back to Hamilton, who orchestrated the first banking bailout in 1792. From this came a regular money-supply system, a credible U.S. government debt system, and something of a disciplined banking system.

Gordon hopes that out of the current crisis we get a better system of well-capitalized banks regulated by a more unified government supervisory apparatus. My view is that the panic will pass and long-run American prosperity will continue. This may seem Pollyannaish right now, but I have great confidence that our free-market economy will come out better, with a strong financial underpinning, when the storm finally ends.

Paradoxical as it may be, strong government actions to stabilize banking are necessary to preserve the free-market-economy system. No free-market economy can survive without stable banking and credit. Without readily available credit, entrepreneurs can’t put their new ideas into commercial practice. And without that vital innovation, economic growth suffers.

The trick now is to use government levers in smart and efficient ways. Banks need to be recapitalized without punishing current and future shareholders. Henry Paulson is working on this. More than likely, the Treasury man and the G-7 finance ministers are figuring out a plan that will temporarily guarantee all short-term interbank lending in the New York and London money markets.

Britain has done this for its High Street banks. But the American and European banks in London are not guaranteed. This is the message of the LIBOR market, which has seized up. As of Friday, the three-month LIBOR dollar rate and its spread against Treasury bills have again increased significantly. This, in turn, is dragging down stocks.

In New York, the market for commercial paper issued by banks also has faltered. In fact, financial commercial paper has dropped nearly $160 billion in recent weeks. That’s why the authorities have to step in with a short-term backstop. Other measures to relieve banks of their distressed assets, backstop money-market funds, and guarantee all banking deposits will have a positive effect over time, as Paul Volcker noted in the Journal this week.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has essentially moved off its fed funds rate target and is instead focused on injecting huge quantities of new cash into the banking system. The most basic money supply controlled by the Fed is now growing at a 16 percent rate after being nearly flat for 18 months. In the last five weeks the Fed has injected nearly $700 billion through a variety of lending facilities. This is important. The demand for liquidity during this period of asset and credit deflation cries out for massive new cash supplies from the central bank.

Then there’s oil, which is almost forgotten in this panic. The $150 oil shock and elevated prices at the pump are what worsened the credit crunch and hastened the recession. But now oil is about $80 a barrel. When the dust finally clears, lower energy prices will be an important tax-cut, pro-recovery factor. Meanwhile, the exchange value of the U.S. dollar is up 16 percent in recent months. That’s an anti-inflationary sign of confidence.

And as John Steele Gordon writes, hopefully we have learned to stop forcing banks to give mortgages to un-creditworthy customers, and to stop encouraging Fannie and Freddie to package these bad loans.

I recall the despair that surrounded the S&L/junk-bond credit crunch twenty years ago. Nobody believed prosperity would return for a long time. Commentators on the left wrote about the decline of the U.S. economy and American power. Yet the 1990s witnessed a strong prosperity boom; the free-market model of capitalism triumphed and the socialist model in Russia and elsewhere collapsed.

Yes, the months ahead are going to be tough. But I remain optimistic that our free democracy and free-market economy will survive this crisis as well.

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About The Author

Lawrence Kudlow is host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company

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Huh?
Good God what happened to Kudlow?

"The trick now is to use government levers in smart and efficient ways."

He can't be serious. How could he read this and not giggle or cry?

Every week he writes a column how some smart guy has figured this all out and Happy Days Are Hear Again.

Larry why have you given up on free-market solutions? You are hardly even worth the paper you write this crap on.

GOVERNMENT CANNOT GET US OUT OF THIS! THEY CAN ONLY GET US FURTHER INTO IT! Write that article Mr. Kudlow.

Obama + Socialism = Dream Realised
"A nation can survive its fools and even the ambitious, but it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is formidable, for he is known and carries his banners openly against the city, but the traitor moves among those within the gates freely, his sly whispers rustling through the alley and heard in the very halls of government itself. He rots the soul of a nation; he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city; he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist."
Cicero

. 3000 people from this source will work for him in the White House.

http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/viewSubCategory.asp?id=8 00

Radical and Socialist Influences: Saul Alinsky,Khalid Abdullah Tar,iq al-Mansour, Bill Ayers, Carl Davidson, Frank Marshall Davis, Bernardine Dohrn, John L. McKnight, Democratic Socialists of America, Gamaliel Foundation, New Party, Socialist Scholars Conference.

Political Allies and Advisors: Ali Abunimah, Mohamed Salim Al-Churbaji, David Axelrod, Joe Biden, Gregg Craig, Jim Johnson, Marilyn Katz, Anthony Lake, Robert Malley, Raila Odinga, Alice Palmer, Eli Pariser, George Soros, Cass Sunstein, Dorothy Tillman, Joyce Wheeler, Tim Wheeler.

Foundations: Chicago Annenberg Challenge, Joyce Foundation, Woods Fund of Chicago

Money Scandals: Nadhmi Auchi, Robert Blackwell, Jr., Tony Rezko

Religious Affiliations: Louis Farrakan, Rev. Joseph Lowery, James Meeks, Rev. Otis Moss, Rev. Michael Pfleger, Rev. Al Sharpton, Jim Wallis, Rev. Jeremiah Wright

Organizational Affiliations: ACORN, Arab American Action Network, Chicago Annenberg Challenge, Davis, Miner, Barnhill & Galland, P.C. , International Crisis Group, MoveOn, National Council of La Raza, Planned Parenthood, Federation of America, Project Vote, Sojourners

Academic Affiliations: Rashid Khalidi, Edward Said, Cornel West

Government can be used
but only as a tool to remove an obstruction.

When any flow is slowed, such as a crimp in a fire hose, you only need to remove the restraint, not replace the functioning hose with an inferior hose.

i.e, such as replacing capitalism with socialism.

Unless that money
trickles back into our accounts and we know who is going to be President, don't bet the farm we're coming back anytime soon.

Mr. Bill Runs Away

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRInK00i19U

Right now, I trust myself at the wheel more than Mr. Hands.



What we need to see...
tax incentives for any *qualified* home buyer, not some puny $1000 rebate and no capital gains tax cuts for house flippers who hold the properties for two months. There has to be investing in RE, not short term speculation, to fix this MESS.

I can't believe Sen Elizabeth Dole is the only one I've seen mention this and now she's behind some big tax hiking lib who lies all the time, so this election is going to make a big difference in how I approach things. She wrote that bill to get oversight into Fannie and Freddie that McCain endorsed, too, and is on the Senate Banking Committee.

I'll tell you what, Kudlow, it's the PUBLIC I don't trust. I did pull most of my money out of the market when it hit 14,000 last year, but didn't panic and contribute to the banking problem by pulling my money out of there, like some Chicken Little. They just made everything worse. I do think some of what the Fed and Treasury are doing is a good thing, too, but we need to stimulate housing or none of it will work. COMMON SENSE, PEOPLE.

Obama, the One-Man Depression...

Tell the Truth Larry...

Barack's agenda of Higher Taxes and Central (commie) Government has scared the hell out of investors!

Go ahead, tell me who is going to invest in a "Free-Market" that is run by a Marxist named Obama?

Barack = Fear

WOW-twice
Townhall has put this article on their site two times---an oversight I hope! So I am posting my reply on both:

Do you really believe
that the government can fix this mess THEY made? The author believes that "the levers" of government will help this economy? Really? More like the thumbscrews of government! Want a fast infusion of cash into banks, Wall St., et al? DO AWAY WITH ALL TAXES ON CAPITAL GAINS! This isn't rocket science...since when does government have ANY right whatsoever to gain from the risks that others are willing to take with their money already taxed once when they earned it? Remember Reagan's words?---Government isn't the solution, it's the problem. Free market my eye. I've never seen it and, no doubt, many American's alive today haven't either. I cannot believe the author's childish hope or that of the "eminent financial historian" Mr. Gordon. I've heard enough garbage from "experts" and that collective bunch of morons in Congress for far too long.

Stocks And Scares
Is it possible the markets are afraid of having liberals (Socialists) run the country with Obama at the helm to steer this sinking ship?

The bailout was suppose to soothe the fears. It did not work. Nothing has. If Obama's numbers plummet,would the markets rise? Inquiring minds need to know.

Our Future In America
Please hear me. When I was growing up, I was always told: you are judged by the company you keep. Birds of a feather flock together. I know these are simple statements, however true. We
must judge Barack Obama by the company he has kept and is still keeping. He and His Own will
destroy America as we have known all these years
Yes, He will Change America, but not for the better. John McCain may not be the Best, but he will keep us from becoming a Socialist Nation.
Wake Up America ! VOTE JOHN MCCAIN
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