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Thursday, October 09, 2008
Larry Kudlow :: Townhall.com Columnist
Will McCain Make the Investor Connection?
by Larry Kudlow
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Was the Copenhagen Global Warming Summit Walk-Out a Win for the U.S.?


While the presidential candidates were debating in Nashville on Tuesday night, the Asian stock markets were selling off by 10 percent. Earlier in the day, the U.S. market plunged by 500 points. These were big-time drops, yet presidential debaters never talk about the stock market. Nashville was no exception.

Roughly $2 trillion in U.S. shareholder capital has been lost in the past 15 months. Stocks are down 20 percent over the last month alone. Those are nasty hits. Stock market people are very unhappy campers right now. And the bad-news financial statements for September are now either in the mail or on the kitchen table. But there were no references to investors either by John McCain or Barack Obama on Tuesday night. This is nuts.

The investor class is a huge voting bloc. Shareholders in recent national elections represented nearly two out of every three votes cast. And most surveys put the investor-class population at slightly over 100 million. This includes direct investment through brokerage accounts, although the vast majority of investor-class members own IRAs, 401(k)s and defined-benefit plans, such as state and city pension funds.

So why aren't the presidential contenders trying to connect to investors? More glaringly, why isn't McCain?

After the debate, I checked in with TechnoMetrica's Raghavan Mayur, who puts out the respected IBD/TIPP poll. Mayur consistently ranks among the top pollsters in terms of accuracy, including his work on investor preferences. For September, Mayur's data show McCain with a small 45-41 lead over Obama among investors. That's roughly within the poll's margin of error, and for McCain it isn't enough.

Four years ago this September, George W. Bush had a 10-point lead over John Kerry among investors. In November, Bush won investors by a 53-42 margin. By this measure, McCain is now way behind. And I suspect it may be a function of his reluctance to talk directly about investor taxes -- especially on capital gains and dividends.

The Bush tax cuts in this area were very popular among shareholders since they reduced the cost of capital and raised after-tax investment returns. Of course, McCain has pledged to maintain President Bush's investor tax cuts at the current 15 percent rate, while Obama proposes to raise them to at least 20 percent. But McCain seldom talks specifically about cap-gains and dividends, and the polling numbers strongly suggest he's not connecting with investors.

Obama constantly bashes businesses and successful high-end earners, and one would think investors would be totally turned off by this. But Mayer's polls don't confirm it. Why? Perhaps investors sense a lack of tax-cutting passion from Sen. McCain.

For example, during the debate, McCain did mention how he and Obama differ on tax policy. At one point, McCain even compared Obama to Herbert Hoover. "My friends," he said, "the last president to raise taxes during tough economic times was Herbert Hoover, and he practiced protectionism, as well."

McCain later said: "I've got some news, Sen. Obama -- the news is bad. So let's not raise anybody's taxes."

But McCain never got specific on capital gains and dividends, and he failed to educate voters on just how important investment is to healthy job-creating businesses.

Ditto for McCain's proposed corporate tax cut. The senator wants to slash the business tax rate from 35 percent to 25 percent. It's an excellent plan. But McCain doesn't explain how two-thirds of the benefits of a corporate tax cut go to the workforce through higher wages, with the rest then going to shareholders. He also doesn't point out that ordinary folks actually pay the corporate tax, since firms pass this tax cost along in the form of higher prices. So McCain could, in fact, call a corporate tax cut a consumer tax cut. But he's not doing this.

McCain also needs to put investors on red alert about Obama's middle-class tax cut. The Illinois senator's huge government-spending plans will overwhelm his ability to cut taxes for 95 percent of the people. In fact, McCain needs to remind voters that Bill Clinton made exactly the same promise as a candidate in 1992 before he broke it as president in 1993.

Time's running out. The investor class vote -- which still looks up for grabs -- has simply got to be a McCain priority if he is to win in November. Rag Mayur doesn't have his October polling results in yet, but he thinks the race will be much tighter than mainstream pundits believe. Message to Sen. McCain: The investor vote could well tip the balance.

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About The Author

Lawrence Kudlow is host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company

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Maybe many investors are just stupid
Gee, that would be hard to believe.

You want to know why many seem to support the Chosen One. Maybe they rely on the MSM for their news. It did a great job of sweeping the Obama/Fannie Mae connection under the rug. Everyone needs to watch the Youtube video "burning downt the house" which shows Obama working for a law firm that sued banks for not making enough sub-prime loans.

If investors want to buy into the lie of forty-times-earnings, they might as well buy into the lie of Barack Barry Obama.

Populist Scapegoating Nonsense
This is the bane of the McCain campaign, that and the fact that the reason he doesn't actively appeal to investors is because he doesn't know how the economy works.

He's never run a business. Valiant service aside, he's been collecting a government paycheck his entire life, and was the beneficiary of it as a child. His wife is wealthy, and he really doesn't even understand his own finances (how many homes), and it doesn't interest him.

I love the man (McCain), but he just is not fluent on all of the facts Kudlow talks about (ECON 101) and he doesn't think it matters. How else could he think that going after Obama's character (old news) will matter a hill of beans when stock-markets are crumbling the world round. Instead, we're stuck with a marxist-agitator socialist (Obama) giving the appearance of understanding that which he does not either.

So McCain is stumbing about trying to appeal to Independents who don't know what they stand for, by using "bipartisan" rhetoric that stands for nothing. He is a national hero, and means well, but he is not a Reagan-conservative.

MARKET BLUES - perhaps
every word of this article is right on - and certainly these are terrible times - there might be an element of fear in investors beyond all the obvious reasons - combined with the obvious reasons might be the impending doom of an Obama presidency. Even to a person with a basic knowledge of economics - trickle up never made any sense - the foundation of today's problems.
Under Obama we are looking to a future where entitlement programs of every kind will be put forth. Already - Pelosi is pushing another stimulus package - in this house those checks never show up. Who are the rich?? To Obama they include hard working people - perhaps professional status or trades people, basic bookkeepers in many households - watching the budget day, after day, after day, caring for the employees, the elderly parents, educating the family, trying to share in the upbringing and future of the grandchildren.
Not only will financial burdens be heavier for many, many of us but we will wonder how we got a President who is forced to wear a flag pin, or cover his heart during the national anthem - has long associations with a good number of anti American characters and a radical left group ACORN - sat on boards that provided funds for radical programs and people. Provided million of taxpayer dollars to the likes of Tony Rezko - WHAT ARE WE THINKING HERE???
A bad day with John McCain is a wondrous thing compared to any day with a very questionable Barack Obama.

McShame..
is a dim bulb. It is fairly stupid for someone to support open borders, free trade, amnesty, bigger government, free spending (but not pork?), etc. McShame is a member of the CFR as is Kudlow. One World Government via the financial systems is upon us. The show is over. It is near time for Obama, the libs, Hollywood, socialists to consume us.

This is a good analogy
We know what McCain is like, he'll get the job done, but he doesn't spell things out every step of the way and only had one minute to answer the questions tossed at him.

Keep up the good fight, Kudlow! It's up to us. Those trading floors look like high school cafeterias, I didn't really expect much out of some of them and that's one reason we took control of our own portfolios.

Check this out, it's hilarious and the plumber analogy sums it up pretty well. :)

Red State Update: The Palin-Biden Debate (Remembrances Of)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIQEMWq6lTo

Hey Larry
For more interesting than this...,

That bailout you spent so much time cheer-leading for, has just worked out great hasn't it?

We all feel positively indebted to you and all the knuckleheads that voted for this turkey. So in addition to dumping a ton of cash on it, the market hates the government intervention and it hasn't stopped dropping since.

You and and the boys and girls in Washington got any more presents planned for us?


Warren Buffett is out of touch...
he is totally ignoring that small businesses are the ones who provide the most jobs in this country and penalizing them with Obama's tax plan will destroy them, personally. Someone who makes $250,000 a year will suffer hardships that Buffett will not with his billions, and if we did away with this antiquity of a SS system, his secretary would not be burdened either. She also didn't risk everything she has on starting a small business, she has a cushy and secure job. Totally unimpressed with his arguments for Obama, he really does seem old and spoiled.

Maybe some of these traders who are losing their jobs will wake up and realize how much their own well being depended on the health of small businesses, too.

Slipstream, this will take more
than a week to fix and hedge funds are dumping stocks *at any price* in order to meet redemption requests from their investors who no longer trust them. That is making everything worse, fyi. They also have a habit of dumping in Sept and Oct, even when things are going well, so give it some time.

Investor Connection?
Pegging investment to the stock market is risky and it should not be a surprise to anyone in the game. But the long term trend is that the market will recover over time and, therefore, is not in the same “dire straights” category of people losing their homes. Stability of the credit market also has higher priority. For people having investments as part of their retirement planning and nearing retirement, they should have shifted their portfolio to a much less risky mix. That’s finance 101.

Sign of the Times
I saw this short article from the Associated Press this morning while scanning some new sites and wanted to share it with everyone:

----------

NYC National Debt Clock runs out of digits

Wed Oct 8, 10:03 PM ET


NEW YORK - In a sign of the times, the National Debt Clock in New York City has run out of digits to record the growing figure.

As a short-term fix, the digital dollar sign on the billboard-style clock near Times Square has been switched to a figure — the "1" in $10 trillion. It's marking the federal government's current debt at about $10.2 trillion.

The Durst Organization says it plans to update the sign next year by adding two digits. That will make it capable of tracking debt up to a quadrillion dollars.

The late Manhattan real estate developer Seymour Durst put the sign up in 1989 to call attention to what was then a $2.7 trillion debt.

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Connect with concrete numbers
1. McCain should say that by doubling the dependent exemption a middle class family of 4 will save almost $2000 ($7000*28%), i.e. almost twice Obama's tax "cut".

2. McCain must say what eliminating the 2001-3 tax cuts mean including re-introduction of the marriage penalty and death tax. Also he must give $ cost for a middle class family as Obama's website say that his tax cut is relative to taxes in the 1990s (hey BHO we're in the 21st century).

3. McCain must sell his corporate 10% tax cut. 1st he should question the $300B cost. If 10% of corporate profits=$300 B then corporate profits =$3 T unlikely with a GDP of ~$13T. Perhaps McCain could say he wishes that were so. McCain should attack the static accounting mind set and say that tax revenues can increase with decreased tax rates. Finally he should say he supports successful American businesses such as Ebay/Google etc. Also he should find some small successful small businesses to highlight - perhaps a restaurant named something like "Kate's Diner" and say how he will help keep them in business as opposed to Katie's Diner.

Missed opportunity
Well said , Mr Kudlow, except McCain made a blunder ,in my view , by offering another $300 BILLION for "housing speculators" (my label).
He also missed a golden chance by failing to call attention to the connection between Obama and the DEMOCRATIC heads of Fanny May and MAC!!!! The media will never touch that one!
Regards , Paul in Dallas ,Or

AMERICA: 7/4/1776 - 1/19/2009
America is full of idiots, the media is in the tank for Obama, and John "Democrat lite" McCain is campaigning on par with Bob Dole in 1996. ACORN will have dead people voting by the tens of thousands in Ohio and Florida, and the parasites will likely outnumber the producers on election day.

Hold on to your guns and your wallets - Czar Obama will be coming after both.

As for me, I'm on my way to Alaska or Texas whichever first starts working on secession. "The Republic of Texas" existed before, it can exist again. And the next version will have a fully patrolled border.

America: 7/4/1776 - 1/19/2009
Amerika: 1/20/2009 - the revolution

A frightening "Obama Timeline" at:
http://colony14.net/id41.html

An even more frightening list of "What Obama would do..." is at:
http://colony14.net/id35.html

THE RIGHT DEAL
Liberals had their New Deal with FDR and their Fair Deal with Truman. Now they want to lead us into the future with the worse deal in history, with a bad deal for our economy and foreign policy, with the Wrong Deal of Barack Obama. It's time for a Conservative Deal my friends, a Right Deal for fixing our economy and country. McCain-Palin: The Right Deal for America, the best deal
deal for the future.

Click ApolloSpeaks and read my uplifting and inspiring piece: John McCain, Hero of Destiny: Signs of Republican Victory

Apollospeaks
Good to see someone with some common sense. I had to leave the Iran war collumn as I started laughing so hard I couldn't type when donaphoo said he worked for Ronnie(Reagan)! LMAO not used with permission!!!

The Pope is right
The Bankers and Wall St. house of sand has fallen.

AmericanWoman
Governments can affect but cannot fix markets. Markets will set the appropriate price; government intervention and setting it's version of price only serves to confuse the market and slow the finding of appropriate levels.

Congress votes this 'rescue' in and markets immediately head south

It's no coincidence when the Feds start talking about buying directly into businesses the market heads straight for the toilet again. Why? More confusion, more inadequate information about what this all means and more Federal level mucking around in markets when it can't even make government work right.
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