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Thursday, April 10, 2008
Larry Kudlow :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Cleansing Power of Recessions
by Larry Kudlow
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Recessions are part of capitalism. They happen every so often. We've had two in the last super-prosperous 25 years. And it looks like we're entering a third one after Friday's jobs-loss report.

The unemployment rate went up to 5.1 percent, which is still a low number in historical terms. But the March labor report showed a loss of 80,000 payroll jobs, while payrolls in the prior two months were downwardly revised by 67,000. Non-farm payrolls have fallen for three straight months after peaking last December. Private-sector jobs have dropped four consecutive months.

This is a big warning sign. Within the private-sector report, professional and business services payrolls -- one of the biggest gainers over the past 15 years -- dropped 35,000, the third straight monthly decline following a December peak. Meanwhile, the household survey that picks up entrepreneurial small-business totals is now down 678,000 jobs since a peak in November.

The recessionary handwriting looks to be on the wall. Other recession indicators used by the National Bureau of Economic Research, such as disposable income and overall business and retail sales, are now several months below their peaks of last fall.

Lest we get too gloomy, there were some positive spots in the employment report. For example, the median duration of unemployment actually fell to a 15-month low of 8.1 weeks in March, the lowest level since December 2006. This indicates that about half of the unemployed are finding jobs in about two months. (Hat tip to professor Mark Perry of the Carpe Diem blogsite.) Additionally, aggregate hours worked in March actually rose, as did the private and manufacturing workweeks.

So while there is an economic correction at work, it could prove relatively mild. Let's remember, the United States has experienced 10 recessions since 1947, averaging 10 months in length. But in the more recent high-tech quarter century, in which tax rates and inflation have been historically low, the two recessions of 1990-91 and 2000-01 lasted only eight months.

If the current slump began in November, it could be over by late summer.

And let's also remember that recessions are therapeutic. They're even necessary to create the foundations for the next recovery. Economic excesses always occur in free-market capitalist economies, and from time to time they must be cleansed. Just think about the excessive risk-speculation, leverage and housing prices of the current episode. If anything, recessions make for clean starts.

And think of this: Despite housing woes, credit problems and the sub-prime virus, banks are still lending to businesses. In other words, we don't have a genuine, across-the-board credit crunch. This is very good news, and more evidence that an economic contraction will not be drawn out.

That said, there are two related issues that worry me. First is the continued decline in the value of the dollar, which has permitted the global commodities boom (energy and food) to leak into higher U.S. inflation. Bulging commodity costs have depressed the profits of non-financial domestic businesses, where after-tax earnings are down 24 percent from a peak in late 2006.

Profits are the mother's milk of stocks, businesses and the economy. And because profits have fallen, some businesses are contracting and laying off workers in order to bring costs back in line with revenues.

If Washington really wants to help the business sector recover, nothing would be better than an across-the-board cut in corporate tax rates. This competitiveness-enhancing action would lower tax costs, boost jobs and lift worker wages. The growth incentive would reignite the economy. A permanent corporate tax cut would be far better than a temporary consumer rebate.

The other worrisome issue is inflation. The March jobs report showed a continued easing of hourly wage growth. After a 4.3 percent peak in late 2006, average hourly earnings for non-management workers has slowed to 3.6 percent for the 12 months ending in March. Consequently, headline consumer inflation of 4 percent continues to erode average wages. While most all market observers are focused on the sub-prime credit crisis, it's the pick-up of inflation in recent months that has dampened consumer-spending power and corporate profits.

As lawmakers in Congress contemplate a massive FHA housing bailout package, they would be better advised to look more carefully at the recession-ending benefits of lower business tax rates and a stronger greenback.

In fact, liberal economists should look at a new Rasmussen poll in which 48 percent of voters say the best thing government can do is get out of the way by reducing taxes and regulations. Only 36 percent disagree. What's more, 59 percent of voters believe it's more important to create economic growth than to reduce the income gap between rich and poor. Finally, 49 percent say the best government policy is to reduce spending.

Keynesian-style politicians please take notice.

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About The Author

Lawrence Kudlow is host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company

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Larry
Larry the CFR man thinks recessions are therapeutic.

Larry's Fed buddies created this mess with easy money. We pay a private banking cartel, (the Fed) interest to print our money. They control the money flow. They are already contracting the money supply. Articles I am reading say business loans are also being constricted.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/28/business/lend.php

"Credit flowing to American companies is drying up at a pace not seen in decades, threatening the creation of new jobs and the expansion of businesses, while intensifying worries that the economy may be headed for recession."

"The combined value of two major sources of credit - outstanding commercial and industrial bank loans, and short-term loans known as commercial paper - peaked at about $3.3 trillion in August, according to data from the Federal Reserve. By mid-November, such credit was down to $3 trillion, a drop of nearly 9 percent."

"Not once in the years since the Fed began tracking such numbers in 1973 have these arteries of finance constricted so rapidly. Smaller declines preceded three recessions going back to 1975.
This is a very big deal," said Andrew Tilton, a senior economist in the U.S. Economic Research Group at Goldman Sachs. "You're basically crimping the growth of the more vulnerable companies. If they can't borrow the money, their options are much more limited. They'd have to have less ambitious hiring plans, buy less machinery and cancel projects."


Larry cont.
This is all purposeful folks. Property doesn't evaporate. JP Morgan CHASE, ie the Rockefellers used the Fed to get Bear Stearns at a firesale price.

Recessions are very profitable for the big fish waiting to swallow up all the little ones.

Larry's CFR friends are scumbag traitors working for the destruction of this country and the creation of the North American Union.


"If Washington really wants to help the business sector recover, nothing would be better than an across-the-board cut in corporate tax rates."

I am just guessing, but I imagine Larry is referring to BIG business. The poor self-employed slob can still expect to get killed by taxes.








the Fed
Under the guise of reform the Fed is trying to get control over all the financial markets.

If you want to study how much good they have done for us read, "Greenspans Bubbles, the age of ignorance at the Federal Reserve".

The Fed shouldn't exist and the power to print money returned to the gov where it is supposed to be in the first place.

WND has a good DVD called "The Money Masters" very good if you want to understand the banking system.

Let them eat cake!
The title says it all!

"The Cleansing Power of Recessions"

"As lawmakers in Congress contemplate a massive FHA housing bailout package, they would be better advised to look more carefully at the recession-ending benefits of lower business tax rates and a stronger greenback."

"And let's also remember that recessions are therapeutic. They're even necessary to create the foundations for the next recovery."

Like a colonic
My econ prof says a mild recession can be cleansing in the manner of a high colonic but a lot less pleasant.

-Ray

Middle class grows fearful?

Middle class grow fearful about their prospects

Are you?

MSN-Growing numbers of middle-class Americans say they are not better off than they were five years ago, reflecting economic pressures amid growing debt, a study released Wednesday shows. Their short-term assessments of personal progress, according to the study, is the worst it has been in almost half a century.

The survey by the Pew Research Center, a Washington-based research organization, paints a mixed picture for the 53 percent of adults in the country who define themselves as “middle class,” with household incomes ranging from below $40,000 to more than $100,000.

It found that a majority of Americans said they have not progressed in the past five years. One in four, or 25 percent, said their economic situation had not improved, while 31 percent said they had fallen backward. Those numbers together are the highest since the survey question was first asked in 1964. Among the middle class, 54 percent said they had made no progress (26 percent) or fallen back (28 percent).

READ MORE

http://controlcongress.com/uncategorized/middle-class-grow- fearful-about-their-prospects

Kudlow an inflation hawk?! What a joke.
This guy of ALL people, should not be allowed to forget how he egged the FED on to lower interest rates to next to nothing. What a crock. Worried now about inflation? Genie's out of the bottle, fool.

And HEY Larry. Does it worry you that the U.S. owes over 50 trillion dollars and more in the next 50 years with NO way to pay and a younger generation that is becoming more and more socialist and less likely to vote for policies that expand the economy?

What the hell are you smoking, pal?

Larry, Are You A Flip-Flopper?
When I saw your TV debacle a couple of weeks ago you were doing your over-shouting at your panel, saying there is NO recession. What's new today? Crystal ball rolled off the table and got broke? 31 years of consecutive trade deficits. No problem, sell some newly printed treasuries or have China buy some property next to your house. Historic credit card and housing debt. What more could one ask for? You have been a member of the Council on Foreign Relations since 1988. Are you any richer? Like preaching their stuff?

LARRY
Now that all your "Fat Cat" friends have been insulated from the affects of a RECESSION,you give the O'Kay sign.The "FED" and the government have "Bailed Out" the wall streeters and the only people left to suffer are the CITIZENS.When will "US" learn?SADDDDDD...

Recessions are not part of capitalism
They are part of the cycle created by government intervention and central banking.

Larry, why won't you read anything by Mises or Rothbard?

Recessions are a good thing!
Terminal cancer clears out hospital wards and opens up spaces for other patients (provided they have health insurance).

Bank robberies are good, they put money back into the economy.

High oil and gas prices are good because they force us to cut back on unimportant necessities like food and clothes.

Unending war in Iraq is good because it allows us to try out new weapons.

Car crashes are good since we can learn alot about how to make cars safer.

Home foreclosures are a good thing because they force people out into the street that shouldn't have had them in the first place while allowing vacant house to be vandalized which allows prices to drop in those neighborhoods, thus creating affordable housing (for people that can't afford them-the ones that are now in the street.)

Us Americans take too many "good" things for granted.

Ron ROTFLMAO

To work or not
Think of all the jobs that are opening up each day as people who grew up poor, save their money, paid off the homes, and have reach the ripe old age of 65. These are the people who work for the American dream one drop of sweat at a time.
That was before credit cards.

Today you do not have to work your tail off all your life to get that American dream you get to retire early the modern way.

I wonder how many cab drivers who should have know better that 0% down was too good to be true. That someone has to pay for when the bills come due. Put it on credit cards.
It looks that it will be the tax payers who will have to give that million dollar home to the cab driver who will get that American dream after all.
Rob banks with credit cards.
I do not feel sorry for those who get caught sealing from the banks the old fashion way since if they are not smart enough to do it the modern way they should be lock away in a cold damp place.

Kimberly
"I can only imagine the utter outrage from Kudlow if this recession were of a Democratic president's making."

Please tell us how any President can put us into a recession.

In a capitalist society, the government can only affect the economy by getting in the way of the capitalist with excessive regulation, over taxing them and then spending future tax dollars (debt).

If you know anything about our government then you know that there's no such thing as the Bush tax cuts. Only Congress can raise/lower taxes and only Congress can approve spending. The President's only power over either is the veto.

I'll be only too happy to blame the previous Republican Congress and the current Democratic Congress for the huge growth in government and debt.

Please don't kid yourself into thinking that either Hillary or Obama could do anything (other than vetos) to stop them, or that this is "Bush's" recession.

And I repeat


Just the other day Kudlow said:

Let’s remember, the U.S. has experienced ten recessions since 1947.

And I repeat- - - - -

And lets remember that people who had studied economics, and people who made their living doing and saying things about the economy, each and every time said, “A recession is coming a recession is coming.”

Then they said, “See we told you so, we told you so.”

Next comes, “We can tell how to get out of it, we can tell how to get out of it.”

Next, “See we told you, we told you.”

Then “See things are booming, things are booming.”

Well, if you economists are so smart why didn’t you use your brilliance to correct the problem before it hit, rather than after?

And you lawyers, since you draw up, or at least approve each and every document and activity of a financial institution, why didn’t you say stop.

Since the economists know how to cure a recession, they must know how to stop one. Since the lawyers know they are creating documents and situations that will cause the recession, why not just stop doing it sometime.

Of course we know the economist gets paid a lot of money to make his claims, and the lawyer is only interested in the legal system, and his wallet and his ego.

Have you ever heard of a lawyer who was interested in the Justice system, that is where as a defense attorney he insists that his client is guilty and must be punished. Of course not, that doesn’t fit the pattern.

But put the blame where it belongs, on the people who create the problem in the first place.

I have been in well over 100 escrows with property and trust Deeds, and I can assure you there was no doubt the money lenders were sitting up this mess, and I am thrilled to find them in real trouble.

But I am not thrilled to see the tax payer and home owner getting the worst of the trouble.

knight_of_baawa
"Recessions are not part of capitalism
They are part of the cycle created by government intervention and central banking."

Wrong on at least two counts. 1) where are you going to get a money supply without central banking? Gold standard? Right, there never was one single economic collapse while we were on the gold standard.

2) Capitalism depends on speculation and speculation leads to wild fluctuations and crashes. Ever hear of the Tulip market? Oh, but maybe there was a nascent central bank manipulating the tulip craze. Tulip regulators.




JDHSon-OCajun
Other than you guys, here is a summary of the postings to this column:

WAAA! WAAA! WAAA!

Whazzup TH?
Why has this article been reposted since April 6th?
I've been reading here for several years and do not recall a word for word reposting of an article with a new date of posting that this article has had.

recessions
"Not once in the years since the Fed began tracking such numbers in 1973 have these arteries of finance constricted so rapidly. SMALLER DECLINES PRECEDED THREE RECESSIONS GOING BACK TO 1975"

Constricting the money supply caused recessions. The results are more severe when they create a huge bubble before pulling out the rug.

The transcript of "The Money Masters" is online under that name.

Geezus, Kudlow!
"...issues that worry me. First is the continued decline in the value of the dollar,..".

Oh Geezuz, Kudlow, spare me the crocodile tears! You've been rooting for "cheap money" since the days of Greespin's announcements of "irrational exuberance". Take your dollars, convert them to Euro's, and retire to France! Yes, France! Where even the British who retire there have to buy health insurance with a devalued Pound.(spit!)

Recessions are not good things...
...but they are inevitable cycles in any economy. Do we all honestly think a stock market and GDP can grow infinitum without taking a breather now and then? It's not a CFR conspiracy. As for long-term trends affecting econimics, look at demographics. As our demographics change, our economy changes. And just like demographics, economics are cyclical.

What we don't need is a fed govt. exacerbating a bad situation by piling additional taxation and regulation upon businesses that are already stressed by reductions in revenue and inflation. I'm afraid that is what we're about to get. See you all in the unemployment line.

JD's Handsome Son of 9:40
Your conclusions are supported by my many years experience in school systems. As noted by Thomas Sowell in his latest, Republicans would be well advised to seek black votes by emphasizing the Democrat committment to substandard schooling. Kwame Kilpatrick of Detroit mayor fame is a great example, He refused a $200,000,000 offer to build charter schools in Detroit. In no other area is Mencken more accurate " Democracy is a system in which people can vote for what they want and they deserve to get it, good and hard". Paraphrased from memory.

A recession is when your neighbor loses
A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.
A depression is when you lose your job.

HA-HA-HA-HA
Patent's pending on joke!

IF THEY DON'T HAVE BREAD LET'UM EAT CAKE
Keynesians like Kudlow bark and bark about Free Tree this and Free Trade that but its all phony baloney because they and the big boys with their diapers on are calling all the shots.

The same crybabies are the ones who slander people like Pat Buchanan as Protectionist when they themselves refuse to let the Economy work things out...nooooooo.... its protectionism for Bear Stearns at Tax Payers expense and the Americans who invested in the American dream can rot in hell as far as they are concerned...After all, we shouldn't give them a free handout right? But the corporate elites...well, thats a different story isn't it? What hypocrites. Talk about Protectionists???? The Globalists are the Biggest Protectionists of all...when it comes to themselves..thats why they created the cartels like Nafta, Cafta, WPO, EU, IMF, Federal Reserve. Its Managed Trade...not Free Trade...what fool could believe otherwise?

They are against Protectionism if it will help the American Middle class though. They don't appear to be too concerned that China and the EU subsidize and protect their industries and workers though...why not, lets employ 40,000 Europeans and continue to keep up the European Welfare state. Afterall, with permanent military dollars in Europe that provides lucrative government jobs to Germans...local nationals and pensions not to mention the leases of paid money for every base we rent...the Europeans are plainly spoiled. China is not even worth talking about...poisonous human food, dog food, toys and toothpastes, and a polluted environment that would cause Americans to go to prison if we did half of what the Chinese do to their environment not to mention the dumping in the Oceans of the world and we wonder why whales wash up on the shores dead??
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