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Friday, July 20, 2007
Larry Kudlow :: Townhall.com Columnist
A Stock Market Vote of Confidence for Bush
by Larry Kudlow
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Was the Copenhagen Global Warming Summit Walk-Out a Win for the U.S.?


It has been widely reported that President Bush simply refuses to turn against the surge in Iraq, or even compromise on it. At the same time, he admonishes Congress to toss out troop-withdrawal timetables and to give Gen. Petraeus' new counterinsurgency plan time to work. And you know what? While the Democrats stand against nearly all of the president's wartime policies -- and in the process court defeat -- the stock market is standing with Bush, and the chance for victory.

Early last week, when the Democratic leadership of Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi launched their latest antiwar offensive, stocks dropped about 150 points. Then, in a press conference a few days later, after Bush discussed clear successes in Iraq's Anbar province, the Dow Jones soared nearly 300 points, marching ever closer to the 14,000-point plateau.

Of course, shares trade on the profit and interest-rate fundamentals of the economy. But if you ask folks on Wall Street what their biggest worry is, most will say it's another 9-11. They rank another attack far ahead of passing sub-prime mortgage problems or wiggles in consumer spending.

The stock market, in fact, is voting for the president to stay on offense. Here's a case in point. The highest-ranking Iraqi leader of al-Qaida in Iraq was just arrested, after which he told interrogators that Osama bin Laden's inner circle enjoys considerable influence over the Iraqi al-Qaida branch. "Communication between the senior al-Qaida leadership and al-Masri frequently went through al-Mashhadani," said Brigadier Gen. Kevin Bergner. "There is a clear connection between al-Qaida in Iraq and al-Qaida senior leadership outside Iraq."

And Wall Street connected the dots, too: That day, the Dow had been down 150 points. But it rallied back 100 points after the Iraqi capture came across the tape.

This brings me to a larger point. Despite the criticism President Bush has received over his Iraq War policies, isn't it interesting that stock markets have been booming since early 2003, when Saddam was overthrown and the president signed his supply-side tax cuts into law? (Bush, of course, never gets any credit on either of these points.)

In just the past year alone, the Dow has gained a remarkable 30 percent. Meanwhile, Europe and Asia are up about 30 percent, Japan 23 percent, and emerging markets more than 60 percent. Clearly, the world is voting -- with real money -- for the American system of free-market capitalism. And it's my strong suspicion that the majority of the global investing community supports the Iraq War and a steadfast U.S. commitment to stop terrorism. They seem to know that if the United States doesn't do it, no one else will.

I have long believed that stock markets are the best barometer of the health, wealth and security of a nation. And today's stock market message is an unmistakable vote of confidence for the president. Even the best low-tax, limited-government economic policies can be thwarted if the men and women going to work in the morning can't get safely back to their homes and families at night.

And the fact that the world economy is experiencing the greatest economic boom in history is a direct rebuke to jihadists everywhere. Al-Qaida despises our country and its capitalist freedoms. And unless stopped cold in its tracks, it will strive to destroy the U.S. financial system and free-market development around the world. Continued...

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About The Author

Lawrence Kudlow is host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company

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Writers
As I read the financial reporting each day, it seems the movement or not was caused by IBM this or Google that. Sometimes it is Chavez this or Ahmadinejad that. Very short term cause and effect of little consequences. If Bush-opposition is worried about his medical examination, it showed in yesterday’s market. I have the right to be shallow and unconvincing as anyone.

When the yummy years of Clinton I’s presidency were winding down in 1999 the broad stock market indexes were topping out, also. Was the topping out a signal of an impending economic contraction, a breather to allow earnings to catch up to prices, both, neither or something else. True, corruption had taken over in the auditing profession and hundreds of startup companies had no revenue and more had no earnings. Maybe it was just time for some “creative destruction.”

I recall that in the mid 1960’s when the service sector overtook the manufacturing sector as the largest component in the national economic equation. A friend was just beside himself with excitement. The trend didn’t happen overnight and I saw little to be excited about. I believe I was reading Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds at the time. Then came “The Great Society” and by 1970 the thirty year declining trend in the poverty rate ended.

Writers must write even when they have little to write. Kudlow does have his own TV show which I watch so don’t be really harsh on him until you have your own TV show.

Money supply up 13.7%
US stock market has to make 13.7% to break even. Hey Ben Bernanke (Fed Chairman) you ready to drop dollars out of helicopters? I have my weapon against you and that is gold and silver.
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