The latest Treasury report on budget spending and tax receipts is noteworthy. Revenues continue to soar at roughly a 12 percent pace, a trend that began more than three years ago when the Bush tax-cut plan was implemented. Meanwhile, spending continues to expand at an 8 percent rate. So here’s the tragedy: If Congress had held spending in the last three or four years to 6 percent annually -- still twice the inflation rate -- we would have a balanced budget by now.
In economic terms, it’s hard to find any clear links between deficits and the economy. In fact, as lower tax rates have expanded the economic pie, thereby throwing off a huge volume of new tax collections, the deficit has come down to only 1.9 percent of GDP. As for overall U.S. Treasury debt, this remains below 40 percent of GDP -- lower than any of the other G7 industrial countries. What’s more, both 10- and 30-year Treasury bonds currently yield less than 5 percent, strongly suggesting that there is no looming U.S. debt crisis.
And yet, in political terms, many voters are unhappy with debt creation to finance bigger government. On the radio I am constantly hearing callers ask, “How will we ever repay this debt?” It’s a nagging political attitude that Republican strategists have long overlooked.
In November 7 exit polls describing the most important voter issues, the economy weighed in at 82 percent, corruption at 74 percent, terrorism at 72 percent, and Iraq at 67 percent. Possibly, it’s still the economy, stupid. Despite plunging gas prices, a low 4.4 percent unemployment rate, and a soaring stock market, voters are worried that debt-financed overspending will make the future economy worse than today’s.
During the Gingrich congressional years, and particularly during the fight for the balanced-budget amendment of 1997, limited spending coupled with low tax rates was the winning message that gathered both conservatives and Ross Perot independents into the GOP tent. Now is the time to return to these very same principles.
The recent passing of Nobel economist Milton Friedman, who for decades advised Republicans to maintain this limited-government, low-tax message, should be another reminder and a spur to action. |