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Thursday, November 02, 2006
Larry Kudlow :: Townhall.com Columnist
Cheney's optimism, and mine
by Larry Kudlow
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Was the Copenhagen Global Warming Summit Walk-Out a Win for the U.S.?


So can we expect two years of Congress and the Executive Branch trying to outdo each other on spending control? Markets won't mind at all.

And what of the outlook for even higher regulations on business? Stories of CEOs backdating stock options fill the financial pages these days. But will this fuel new restrictions on hedge funds and private equity funds?

"I'm reluctant to see additional regulation," the vice president said. "In general ... I think you can make a case that Sarbanes-Oxley went too far."

Pelosi herself said the Democrats want to relieve some of the over-regulatory pressure of Sarbanes-Oxley. More stolen bacon?

Cheney shrugs, "We'll be happy to work with them on it."

The vice president ended our talk by noting how optimistic he is with the elections only days away: He thinks the Republicans will hold the House and Senate. I'm optimistic, too, but for a different set of reasons.

Adding all this up, key Democrats say they won't raise taxes if they take the House -- and if they do try, the president will be there with his veto pen. Think Grover Cleveland, who holds the American record for presidential vetoes. The Democrats also are at least talking spending restraint, as are Cheney and his boss. And not only is the veep saying no to new regulations, there could be bipartisan agreement that Sarbanes-Oxley has gone too far.

This could be the real message of the Goldilocks market: a Reaganesque policy mix of low tax rates, limited spending and less regulation. It would continue the greatest story never told.

Or am I being too optimistic?

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About The Author

Lawrence Kudlow is host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company

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comrade major
A budget deficit is better than a surplus????? The Bush Administration is selling our country to China to run his war. Deficit spending is no more reasonable for a country than it is for an individual. It leads to bankruptcy.
Tax cuts lead to an improved economy?? only for the very rich. I am part of your productive class and our buying power has regressed considerably since the tax cuts. My college educated daughter can't find a full time job with benefits. Health insurance costs have skyrocketed, while the CEO's pocket billions of back dated stock options. Health care costs have skyrocketed because 60% of the health care dollars goes to administrators who deny you benefits that you have been approved for.
The Republican Congress has spent more money they don't have than any other Congress in the history of the country (and that is adjusted for inflation dollars).
Bush hasn't vetoed anything because he has issued signing statements saying 'I don't have to follow this law, because I don't believe it should be a law.'

Publik Skool
MAY, now you should think before you type. You hurt Dick Cheney's feelings. I see it took you 30 minutes to compose your follow up post. I eagerly await your next clearly stated rejoinder.

JohnnyC (hey, like me)!!!
Thanks for the history lesson. Indeed, we are confronting a portion of the world that regards events that took place in 1099 as equally relevant as what happened yesterday--the Mongol invasions also play into Arabs/Persians collective memory. Given that, I happen to think that given Arabs'/Persians' fatalism, tendency to harbor age-old grudges, and tribalism will doom it for a long-time as a backward and unproductive region of the world.

With Iran, they'll find some long-standing insult on which to justify their adversarial attitude, whether it's Mossadegh or World War II occupation. It's just flat out irrational. I'd rather stick with my guy who talks to God than their guy who talks to God and is hoping for return of the 12th Imam (okee-dokee), or even John Kerry, who thinks he is God.

As far as the budget deficit, I would actually counter that running a budget surplus is more damaging than a budget deficit, especially during a recession, as we were facing in 2000-2001. A treasury cannot (and should not) stockpile public funds, primarily because calling in bonds before their maturity will have long-term negative consequences for the market. During a time of historically low interest rates, say from 2001-2005, it is optimal to incur a reasonable, long-term debt. For example, I can afford the mortgage on a $450,000 house (equal to approximately my entire savings) because I locked in a low interest rate in 2004. I'm confident my future revenues will allow me to pay off my house. Back to the federal budget, increasing debt also helps to "starve the beast" and offset any potential expansion of government.

That was the aim behind the tax cuts of 2001, which spurred a turnaround in our economic fortunes that we (the productive class) still enjoy. The higher tax brackets got a greater tax cut because they pay more in taxes--the math is pretty simple. The non-productive underclass may not have benefitted to the same extent, but as they lack essential skills in the modern marketplace, they will be perpetually behind the powercurve and contribute little if anything to the future. As far as the current economy, the only significant difference between the height of the Bush boom and the height of the Clinton bubble is the notable absence of boiler room operations (although there are a lot more spammers than there were in 1998).

Looking to the election, perhaps a Democratic majority in one of the houses would encourage Bush to invoke his veto power a little more aggressively than he did. In general, I guess I'm one of the few (though no pollster's ever asked my opinion) who doesn't think the current Congess is the living embodiment of evil. Some good legislation has come out of it, namely bankruptcy reform and movement on the illegals issue. But I do agree that the earmarks need to be reined in. Congress does best when it does least.
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