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Saturday, September 23, 2006
Larry Kudlow :: Townhall.com Columnist
The GOP's Bush-led turnaround
by Larry Kudlow
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President Bush continued his bold pre-November offensive this week, focusing our attention on the war, national security, the totalitarian regimes in the Mideast and even taxes.

Talking about the potential for a Democratic shift in Congress, the president warned a Florida audience: "If they get control of the House of Representatives, they'll raise your taxes. It'll hurt our economy. And that's why we're not going to let them get control."

The president also warned that Democrats would raise taxes in a futile attempt to balance the budget: "They will raise your taxes and figure out new ways to spend your money." He then added the real money line, good supply-sider that he is, "The best way to balance the budget is to keep pro-growth policies in place."

Bush is doing a great job this political season. His polls are rising everywhere, as are the numbers for congressional Republicans. The House GOP 2006 contract on TradeSports.com is up to nearly 57 percent, from 38 percent two weeks ago. That's an amazing turnaround, and huge credit goes to Bush.

On all topics, it seems the Bush message is resonating. In particular, it's nice to see him claiming ground on the economic front. This is territory he fought for, and he shouldn't give it up.

This week on CNBC, I asked prospective Democratic Ways and Means chair Charlie Rangel if he would roll back the Bush tax cuts on capital gains and dividends. Rangel deflected the question, speaking instead about raising the cap on the alternative minimum tax. Earlier, in a Bloomberg news interview, Rangel said he "cannot think of one" of Bush's tax cuts that merit renewal -- another crafty answer since the investor tax cuts aren't up for renewal until 2010.

Rangel, who emphasizes the need for bipartisan tax, budget and entitlement cooperation, knows the president will veto any tax-hike proposal while he is still in office. (By the way, bravo for Rangel's trashing of Hugo Chavez and his patriotic defense of Bush.)

Indeed, the chance of any tax-cut rollback is pretty thin. But Bush is being politically savvy when he warns Americans about the Democrats' fiscal wish list. On the economy, Bush knows he has the argument, data and momentum on his side.

Oil and gasoline prices have plunged over the past month, taking away a big Democratic issue. The broad stock averages have had a nice run since Labor Day and are closing in on five-year highs. This rally is a measure of the future economy and business profits, and it signals continued growth as far as the eye can see. And while investors are abandoning the energy sector, consumers are spending -- making the retail stock index one of the hottest plays on Wall Street.

At the same time, inflation indicators such as gold, commodities and energy have been pummeled. Long-term interest rates have dropped quickly from 5.25 percent to 4.6 percent, another sign of diminishing inflation fears. Consequently, the Federal Reserve hasn't touched interest rates at its last two meetings, while many on Wall Street are now betting the next Fed move will be a rate cut, not a hike.

Meanwhile, the monetary base, which measures the Fed's dollar-creating activities, has been flat-lined, with literally zero growth over the past eight months. As Milton Friedman taught us, excess money is the cause of rising inflation. But the Fed is taking care of that problem, which is why forward-looking market indicators (i.e., gold, energy and long-term bond rates) have all dropped significantly. In fact, if you combine the rising stock market with the falling inflation markets, the clear forecast is for non-inflationary growth.

This is just what the doctor ordered -- and another chapter in the greatest story never told.

No, you won't hear Democrats admit that government policies under Bush are working. In fact, the Democrats have stopped even talking about the economy. But most Americans seem to be coming around. A recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll reveals that 54 percent of Americans believe the economy is doing well. Almost one in three respondents say lower gasoline prices have enabled them to spend more on household items. And while half of those polled say they disapprove of Bush's management of the economy, that number is down from 59 percent at the beginning of August.

The Democrats, without an economic message of their own, are losing their audience. Even their anti-Wal-Mart tirades are falling short, with a majority of Americans saying the retail giant is good for the economy.

Bush is involved in quite a political turnaround. His national-security offensive, buttressed by his strong stance on tax cuts, is working. If he keeps it up -- and there's every reason to think he will -- the GOP Congress may be poised to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

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About The Author

Lawrence Kudlow is host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company

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Pistol

I know lots of liberals. I don't know any socialists.

Again, how do you blame the doctored photos of a Lebanese photographer on American liberals?

Do some research, if you care to, into gun laws in Europe and the crime rates. The statistics may surprise you.

"I am uninterested in your proofs which seem mostly to be merely someone else's opinion, or poll or interpretation."

Huh. How about facts and statistics? I don't make a habit of quoting other folks' analysis, unless their underlying data is solid.

"Some people think bush stole a couple elections."

Nah. More people voted for Gore, but that's another matter.

"I don't feel anything is accomplished in a discussion with impugning the opponents veracity or intelligence."

How about accuracy?

BS Detector
Man, you get around. I am impressed. You take enough valid exception to my statements to actually make me consider going searching for documentation to support things i have experienced and which i know to be true, supposing Alheimers hasn't carried me away yet. Next time in the library i'll dig into the reference stuff i used the last time some liberal bet me a wad we were spending more on the miiitary than on domestic spending. Of course that was so long ago it only cost HEW about a dollar to give a dollar away to somebody. I hear the ratio is now up to $2.83. Don't ask me to prove it. I don't really care enough if you believe it to spend the effort.

I don't blame all the world's ills on "Liberals". (I dislike current usage of the word, just as i dislike using gay for homosexual. Thomas Jefferson was a Liberal. Most people who call themselves liberal today are socialists.) Timothy McVeigh was not a liberal. He was a right wing nut. Few right wingers have much trouble seeing that, just as we saw Nixon as an abuser of his office and forced him to resign. Items like the dna on the blue dress, Rather's forged document, the doctored photo are hard established facts. They are not somebody's study. The Iraq war is a fact. Discussions of should we have gone or can we win are mostly opinion. If we win or lose with the clarity of the winners/losers of WWII, that will be a fact. To some people the Nazi death camps are not a fact. I've talked to enough people i trust to believe they are a fact.

The recent confiscation of firearms in Britain and Australia has resulted in just the overnight change in the crime rate you say is impossible. Home invasions are now more prevalent in London than NYC. But don't ask me to prove it. You and your handle imply you are tired of unchecked facts, fair enough. I don't use them. If i'm uncertain i qualify my claims. I am uninterested in your proofs which seem mostly to be merely someone else's opinion, or poll or interpretation. Some people think bush stole a couple elections. To them this is a fact. No one has ever proved this to me. Perhaps i seem wishy washy to you. I don't feel anything is accomplished in a discussion with impugning the opponents veracity or intelligence. Ideas are ideas. Once again, i admire your energy and passion. Your motives are your own.

NRAlifer wrote:

"You forgot to mention how Carter allowed the Shah to fall thus ushering the current islamofascist nutjobs in Iran."

And you forgot to mention how we installed an autocratic, authoritarian regime and propped it up for decades prior to 1979. That kind of policy is bound to make enemies of those repressed by it.

"Gutted the military."

Really? In what way?

"52 Hostages."

Absurd. You want me to say 220 dead marines?

"14% PRIME RATE"

You can do better than that; it hit 21.5% in December 1980. Of course, that was Paul Volcker's Fed getting inflation under control, and can't be blamed on Carter. Not mere facts will stop you.

"1. Go on TV and tell Americans to expect less and get used to being seocnd-best."

Hogwash. Find it on the web and provide a link.

You forgot 3. Supporting the Afghan resistance, which was an important factor leading to the end of the Soviet Union. But I'm sure you'd call this "arming the Taliban."

Pistol

How you can blame all the world's ills on "liberals" is beyond me. "The doctored photo was that one printed by Reuters, altered to add more smoke toa burning building in Lebanon." Which liberals had anything to do with this?

As for dishonesty, there's lots on both sides.

Florida crime: since there's never been a drop in crime like you describe, I'll have to assume you've made a mistake here. There's never been such a precipitous decrease in crime in Florida - so perhaps your "overnight" description was just a dramatic overstatement.

"These are the folks that predicted 40,000 body bags to kick Saddam out of Kuwait." Can you support this claim?

"I have heard predictions of a return to Jim Crow if a Republican is elected." Where?


Sam sam sam sam sam

"My taxes got raised under George W. Bush too."

Please tell us which of your taxes were raised. Property taxes? Go whine to your local leaders.

"I pay almost 40-45% in income taxes."

What country do you live in? Seriously, how do you come to this ludicrous conclusion?

"The Republicans are tax and spenders."

No, the Republicans are borrow and spenders.

"5) The appointment of 'Weimar-Helicopter' Ben Bernanke. More of that 'Positive inflation silliness'"

Man, are you out there. Who was a better candidate for Fed chairman?



sam

"Who are you "BS Detector"? You wouldn't be by any chance "Larry Kudlow" since I see so many of your postings which is having to defend this article."

Paranoia, the destroyer. You think Kudlow would bother?

"I certainly don't believe positive inflation is good either."

Note that isn't what I said. I said a bit of inflation is far better than a bit of deflation. Which it is.

"To bad our government and George Bush wouln't know what capitalism or what a balance sheet is."

Um, okay.

"George Bush" is not only good at putting our balance sheet in the red, but he ran is oil business into Bankruptcy. "GOOD Economic Leader". Defend that "BS Detector".

Um, okay, but only because you asked so nicely. Bush's company never went into bankruptcy, so you might want to check your facts. BTW, do you have any idea how many late 70's Texas oil companies were defunct by 1986?

"Whose [sic] doing the real BS? I think the article speaks for itself."

My my my. You sure have gone over the edge, haven't you?


The Cost of Gasoline
I don't know if anyone else has ever done the math, but this has never made sense to me. A barrel of oil is 42 U.S. gallons. I have read that a barrel of oil yields (at best) 22 gallons of gasoline. If you do the math, when oil was $70.00 per barrel (world market), $70.00 divided by 22 gallons = $3.18 per gallon. Gas never hit that high where I live. Now I realize the byproducts of oil refining are used for plastics and rubber (etc.) and may offset the final cost. If you assume the oil refiners sell the gas to retailers, cost, overhead and profit is added in, then $0.44 per gallon state and federal tax, gas would be substantially higher than $3.18. Figuring out the cost relative to the barrel seems impossible. It would seem to me that correlating the cost of oil vs. gasoline is way beyond my pay grade.

Phylo...
I'm going to echo previous sentiments about your mental capacity....

"There is a difference between gas prices and oil prices you idiots. I said gas prices, and the oil companies DO set the gas prices."

Gas prices in Minnesota are DIRECTLY tied to the price per barrel of oil. Remember the case of Midwest Oil of Minnesota? If not here is a reminder... http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8404471/

Oh and to your claim that gas companies "set" gas prices, I refer you to this....

http://www.al.com/opinion/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/opinion/1159003003197600.xml&coll=3

The bottom line here is that people quit driving as much because the kids are back in school. Labor Day is a traditional time for gas prices to drop. Couple that with the fact that commodity speculators were selling high due to the conventional wisdom that 2006 was going to be a record hurricane year (and it was not) and a glut due to hoarding and you have all of the markings for a rapid decent in oil prices. Nothing sinister, just the market place at work....




DS Detector of 5:12
Sorry to leave you hanging out there. My wife and i went out for a cruise through the local Barnes and Noble, just got back.
I could have been more clear when i used the term "90% of the lefties". I am/was speaking of the pillars of the left, the people whose words appear on TV and in the newspapers. I'll be glad to include those of leftist persuasion on this board. These are the folks that predicted 40,000 body bags to kick Saddam out of Kuwait.
I have heard predictions of a return to Jim Crow if a Republican is elected. When i mentioned forged and doctored documents i was thinking of Dan Rather and the forged documents concerning Bush's NG tour. The doctored photo was that one printed by Reuters, altered to add more smoke toa burning building in Lebanon. I am relying on honest memory for the 30% crime drop here in Florida, you can certainly look it up if you are interested. A drop in rape and burlaries has followed every instance in which honest civilians are allowed to carry firearms. Florida just passed a law which allows a home owner to defend his home without seeking to escape if he can. Here again, disaster was predicted, but nothing of the sort has happened. Maybe i'm a victim of selective perception. Perhaps you can come up with some predictions from the left which are upon us. Meanwhile i'll keep your request in mind and if some other erroneous prediction from Kennedy or Pelosi comes to mind, i'll let you know.

At least GWB has idiot friends.
I live in Texas where I have known for more than 6 years GWB was (is) a big spending moron who is not a conservative. You should check out our current governor as he is actually worse than gwb.

Anyway, I happen to be in the half of the population who actually pays federal taxes and bush did not help me or my fiends. Maybe you have noticed but my social security taxes have almost increased 100% in the past ten years under democrat and RINO control. Remember when payroll taxes increased to 15% to fix the social security problem. They can not raise these taxes anymore that so they have to increase the income which is subject to social security every year. Soon they will pass what I make. I also happened to notice that all my deductions went away as I make too much so my taxes went up. One hand gives and the other hand takes them away.

People not living on the border probably did not notice that gwb signed a treaty with mexico (that's what my senator told me) to give their citizens reciprocal social benefits. This means their citizens who are legal here get full social security benefits and our citizens working there get all of their benefits. There are none. Any way, when you accept the Senate plan, all of the illegals get to claim the time they worked here illegally so they can also get social security. Do you think any of them and the half of the country which does not pay taxes will get the earned income tax credit. Now, you know why gwb needs you (if you pay taxes) to give up most of your social security. He and congress can not pay all of the claims.

Please read a book on the federal reserve so you can understand the difference between what affect a president has or the federal reserve has on interest rates.

On a lighter note
I am thankful for liberals. Without them and their hairballed conspiracy theories, I'd have to spend a buck fifty every week to get the Sunday paper for the comics. Here I get it for free!!! Gotta love America.

Otter
Otter my friend, I hate to break it to you. Since you are here at this website one would think you would understand the dynamic:

1) George Bush has a re-election rolling around in less than 2 months.

2) George Bush controls all the oil companies.

3) In an effort to ensure his re-election, he is manipulating the oil/gas prices on the market to bring them down, including in Canada, in time for the election so he can be re-elected.

4)...

Oh wait a minute, he's not up for re-election...therefore it must be...

1) There is a congressional election in less than 2 months.

2) George Bush controls all the oil companies.

3) In an effort to ensure his parties re-election, he is manipulating the oil/gas prices on the market to bring them down, including in Canada, in time for the election so he can be re-elected.

4) Oh wait...Canadians don't vote in our elections...drat! Another problem with my liberal conspiracy theory...therefor it must be...


1) There is a congressional election in less than 2 months.

2) George Bush controls the pope.

3) He manipulated the pope in time for him to irritate all the peaceful muslims to cause another terrorist attack elsewhere in the world, all in a demonstration to show he has made us safe from terrorism...

You get the picture...

Answers to BS
Don't you know? Bush was blamed for the economy when it was "it's the economy stupid"...are you saying he only gets blamed when things are bad but not credited when things go well?

I bought my house when Clinton's fake economy burst and refinanced when 9/11 brought our economy to a screaming halt and in trying to help rebuild it, Greenspan brought the interest rates down.

While neither had anything to do with my being able to afford a house, it had everything to do with my Democratic friend being able to buy a house at the time he did because he had BOTH more money in his take home pay AND lower interest rates...or did you miss the "and" in my sentence?

TheHistorian wrote:

"I remember the late 1970's when we had Democrats at the wheel, and gasoline was RATIONED! You had to have an odd license number to fill up one day, and an even one on the next!"

Remember that it was the Democrat Congress and Nixon administration that instituted the odd-even rationing, along with price controls, in 1973. It was idiocy. Let the market work it out. The Federal government didn't do it again in 1979, though many states did.

"Fortunately, we were rescued by the Gipper who cut taxes and let interest rates kill the inflation."

"The Gipper...let interest rates kill the inflation"? How about Paul Volcker's Fed pursued an incredibly strict (and appropriate) monetary policy, which brought on the worst recession since the 1930s and brought inflation under control, setting the stage for on of the longest and strongest expansions in history?

And why aren't you claiming that Reagan somehow cured the energy crisis?

"But now you Democrats know how to rescue us from lower taxes, moderating energy costs, and a low unemployment rate?"

I'd guess they'd say that they know how to rescue us from a crushing national debt, that unemployment is probably unreasonably low and should be expected to increase a little, and that energy costs are very difficult for the government to influence.

"Even here in Ohio, with the stupidest Republican governor I have ever seen, we are doing much better than we were in 1978 under the wonderful Democrat Richard Celeste."

Are you sure you're from Ohio? Because I James Rhodes, Republican, was Governor of Ohio from 1975 to 1983. Does that mean you're now going to vote Democratic? Because during the national problems faced in the 70's there was a Republican in the state house? Brilliant.


Sanity102 wrote:

"The last person who complained to me about GW's tax cuts was a card carrying Democrat...who eventually admitted that...the lower interest rates DID allow him to buy a home."

"You aren't claiming that Bush had anything to do with lowering interest rates, are you? I'm thinking Mr. Greenspan would tell you differently. The lowering Fed rates, which directly impact mortgage rates, were in response to a struggling economy.

"As for higher NON FEDERAL taxes like state or city taxes...my taxes have gone up but this has more to do with being in a Blue state with REAL DEMOCRATS who love to raise taxes..."

Just curious - what state are you in?

sam wrote:

"The dollar has lost value to the "Euro" and the "Canadian" dollar over the past 5 years. If you want to compare the dollar to the over inflated "Zimbabwe or Argentina currencies" I guess that is true...

That's a very convenient timeframe you're talking about there, especially when compared to the hundred years you threw out earlier. In fact, it's timeframe most favorable to your argument in history.

Compared to the pound, for example, from 1905 through 2000 the dollar tripled in value (it's fallen back from about 1.4 in 2000 to about 1.8 $-per-pound now).

"Gold has risen 3 fold in dollar terms over the last 5 years."

And from 1980 to 1985, gold lost 40% of its value relative to the dollar. Certainly, the dollar is worth less in terms of commodities than it was 100 years ago. But so what? Slight inflation is so much better than slight deflation.

"Gold is not only a tool for Preserving wealth but for personal and economic freedom."

What are you, a gold salesman? :-)

Wait....
...I still have four more years left....

Phylo -- I bet you LOVED 1978
I remember the late 1970's when we had Democrats at the wheel, and gasoline was RATIONED! You had to have an odd license number to fill up one day, and an even one on the next! Gasoline was projected to sell for $1.80 by 1983(DOE forecast), taxes were outrageous, the economy was in free fall with inflation high and growth low (stagflation). Fortunately, we were rescued by the Gipper who cut taxes and let interest rates kill the inflation.


But now you Democrats know how to rescue us from lower taxes, moderating energy costs, and a low unemployment rate? You want us to elect you because you did such a great security job under Bill Clinton. You can guess how I will vote. Even here in Ohio, with the stupidest Republican governor I have ever seen, we are doing much better than we were in 1978 under the wonderful Democrat Richard Celeste.

About GWB
Had to re-sign up as Sanity 102...but in reply to Austindawg...

The last person who complained to me about GW's tax cuts was a card carrying Democrat...who eventually admitted that despite the Liberal talking points, his union job paycheck WAS bigger and the lower interest rates DID allow him to buy a home. As for higher NON FEDERAL taxes like state or city taxes...my taxes have gone up but this has more to do with being in a Blue state with REAL DEMOCRATS who love to raise taxes...and since our SS tax is computed on our Average Wage Indexing Series, it going up every year means that our wages have gone up...and that's a bad thing?

And do you comprehend that illegals don't get to claim SS benefits? In fact, some Bush Bashers claim that shoring up SS is the only reason Bush doesn't want a non-compassionate immigration bill...illegals contribute to the fund and take nothing out.

I know...it sounds so slick to call any immigration bill "amnesty" but no one that has ever paid a traffic ticket ever claims to have received "amnesty". Laura Ingraham for all she talks about illegals following the law, barks at all the tickets she gets when she breaks speeding laws and seems really in favor of being given some type of "amnesty" which does not include paying any fee.

If you mean "prosecute" the war as in dissing those who can drive the price of oil to $10 a gallon and tanking this nation's economy, then yes Bush does refuse to be such a political and diplomatic idiot.

Thank God.

And when in 2 years, we no longer have such a leader...then you can decide if Bush was a Liberal or a very smart Conservative, not only played by reality rules but moved and directed them back to...sanity 101, 102, or whatever version is needed by then.

Toomuchsense wrote:

"We all know that conservatives would take the vote away from african americans. Food out of the mouth of minority babies. Dump mercury and other toxins into all our rivers, streams and lakes. Ban vegans. Make all citizens say the rosary. And worst of all, ban 'the daily kos.'"

Come on, you silly little troll. There aren't that many conservatives who say the rosary.

Pistol wrote:

"Otter - How come intelligent good hearted people pay any attention to what over 90% of the Lefties say? They predicted blood running in the streets here in Florida prior to the must issue concealed firearms permit."

I guess your definition of "Lefty" must be pretty restrictive, to find 90% of them who predicted "blood running in the streets."

"When it passed, crime dropped 30% overnight."

I'd love to see the data - can you point me to it? Because the economy has such a profound impact on crime rates, it must always be taken into account.

"The forged photos and documents on the left..."

What are you talking about?

sam wrote:

"That is like saying the dollar has not been falling for the last 90-100 years."

Well, it's all relative, first off. The dollar's value compared to what? Compared to goods - okay. Compared to other currencies? Not a chance.

But secondly, it's not true - there was delation in the 1930's -- adding mightily to the severity of the Great Depression.

Austindawg wrote:

"[GWB] is not an idiot but he is a democrat..."

Wha?

"Did your taxes go down? Any drop I had tax rates were more than off set by social security tax increases, other fees, state taxes. Yes, they are related."

The Social Security tax rate has not changed since 1990. The amount of income to which it applies has increased by about 12% since 2001, which is about the same as wage inflation during the same period.

"GWB wants to cut my social secuity so he can give more social secuity to people who do do not pay social security taxes, especially illegals."

This is so far off-base it's not even funny. Please, cite something that might lead you to believe this. It'll be fun.

"He wants to give amnesty to 20-30 million people."

You mean the 11 million illegal aliens living here?

"He will not honestly prosecute the war but reminds us that we are predjuiced if we speak unkindly agianst the very folks who want us all dead."

Wait, are you talking about Bush or Al Sharpton?


Phylo Se Fizer wrote:

"I said gas prices, and the oil companies DO set the gas prices."

Well... yes and no. Regional differences in business costs, competition, and taxes have big impacts on prices. A mile from me, regular's $2.45 - 15 miles south - $2.15. While I have heard the claim that the oil companies actually control pump prices, without evidence I don't believe it.

"Oil prices, by comparison, are down to $63/barrel down about 10% from it's previous highs of $70/barrel. How do you explain the difference?"

Simple - there's a lot more to it than just crude prices.

Sanity101 wrote:

"1- SECURITY. No attack in 6 years..."

I don't need to say anything here, do I?

"2- ECONOMY. Unemployment is record low..."

Current unemployment rate 4.7% (bls.gov). Rate was lower in 1966-69, 1988-2000 (EROP).



jevica wrote:

"The only reason [I believe] Rangel [and the others] came out against what Chavez said was they are afraid of the backlash that would happen in this country. The comments by Chavez were nothing the Democrat liberal-left base soes not feel about Bush, and Pelosi, Rangel and the rest say all the time."

Paranoid much? Do you see that you start by saying that Bush can't get a break from your political opponents, and then attack your political opponents in the same way you compain about? Give people credit unless you care to document why you don't.

What you need to understand is that we're all on the same side in far more ways than we're not.

If you attack your opponents by calling them traitorous, then the terrorists have already won (I've been dying to say that).


inkling_revival wrote:

"Oil prices dropped because oil refiners in the US have been stockpiling it for the better part of a year. Every available resource has been pointing it out for months, and predicting a drop in crude oil prices due to the overstocking."

Um, pray tell, why would they do that? Did they expect prices to RISE? Put yourself in their shoes - would you hold on to a product to sell later if prices were at an all-time high now? You might, but the risk would be very high. In reality, crude stockpiles are about 5% higher than a year ago. I don't think this change would have nearly the impact you seem to think it would.

Or maybe, as was widely reported, the drop in prices is due to (a) the end of the peak summer season, (b) concerns about slowing growth, and (c) receding fears about the hurricane season.

Responses

First off, I don't understand how, in a column about the economy and taxes the term "deficit" or "debt" doesn't appear once.

Note that it's taken almost six years for tax revenue to regain the year 2000 level, and that where we had a $236 billion surplus then, we now have a $300-400 billion deficit.

The good economy we have today has been purchased with $3 trillion of debt that we'll have to deal with at some point, and there is no end to the deficits in sight.


Now, on to the rebuttals...


But "seriously", Phylo...
I'm really interested in your "thoughts". You stated:
"If the GAS prices go up after the election, I'll expect a sincere apology from each and every one of you."

Will George do this regardless of who wins the elections? If we'll all be punished for voting for Democrats, are you recommending we vote Republican?

Also, I'm curious as to what Bush's intention is if the GAS prices continue to come down, or remain level, after the elections? I'm quite certain you can read something evil into that scenario, too? Come on, cover all your bases.

I believe in you Phylo. xoxoxo
Phylo,

Don't let those nasty conservatives get you down.

We all know that conservatives would take the vote away from african americans. Food out of the mouth of minority babies. Dump mercury and other toxins into all our rivers, streams and lakes. Ban vegans. Make all citizens say the rosary. And worst of all, ban "the daily kos."

BrianR
The professor in my AC machines class many years ago used to say"If at first you don't succeed, try try again. Then try something different. No use being a dammed fool about it". Guess he read Einstein too.

Pistol: LOL
You wrote: "they repeated the same discredited charge" as to shall-issue laws. They sure as he11 did, every single time, for a total of about 40 times so far.

It reminds me of Einstein's definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different result.

Otter
How come intelligent good hearted people pay any attention to what over 90% of the Lefties say? Like the predictions in Canada, they are totally wrong over and over. They predicted blood running in the streets here in Florida prior to the must issue concealed firearms permit. When it passed, crime dropped 30% overnight. But as each new state came up with a copy cat law, they repeated the same discredited charge. Facts don't faze the professional Lefties, but how come folks like Phylo, Kimberly, and other knee jerk Lefties pay any attention. The forged photos and documents on the left have no effect, as they charge the right with inexplicable lies and rediculously complex deceptions. Maybe they are paid pros.???

Question for Phylo
Does Bush also control the gas prices around the rest of the world, for example, in Canada (see Otter's Post)? Wow! With that kind of power, I'm sure glad he's on America's side... In the wake of Katrina, I've been hoping that he doesn't get mad enough at Vermont to direct hurricanes here.

Phylo:
Alright, then let's try this (since what you said is the same thing, but I'll rephrase to please you).

There is a difference between gas and oil prices, however they are directly linked, as oil -- the source of gas, FYI -- is sold on the spot market. To clarify for you, when oil goes up gas goes up. When oil goes down gas goes down.

The idea that Bush controls the price of either is nuts. It would take the cooperation of entities such as Iran, OPEC, Venezuela, etc. I'll skip the irony this time, as you don't seem to get it, and simply point out that these entities wouldn't spit on Bush if he was on fire, let alone do anything to aid Bush in his goals to get Republicans elected this fall.

Plain enough for you this time?

Gas prices in Canada
have fallen even farther than they have in the US. When I moved up here (met my Canadian wife on the internet, felt her job chances were better than mine if we stayed in Canada), gas prices were in the high 70s per litre, often jumping into the mid-80s.

Now they are heading for the LOW 70s, at least in my region.

It is SO nice to see the economy come roaring back- right when left-leaning economists were calling for a recession (just like the one that did NOT happen last year! Which was predicted if Bush won in 2004))

response to Brian R
Brian R said: You say that gas prices and oil prices aren't directly related. That's probably the stupidest thing you've ever written yet, and you've written some real doozies.

Phylo: I suppose it would be if I had said it, you idiot. What I said is that there is a difference between gas prices and oil prices.

Do you deny that?

Phylo out.

Nanarae . . .
good post!

Phylo, oil goes up, gasoline goes up; oil goes down, gasoline goes down.

The process of turning oil into gasoline (refining) is more complicated than just an equal proportionate relationship. Labor costs, transportation (trucks use diesel, Phylo), federal regulations, taxes, etc., all have influences regarding the cost of fuel for your SUV (which you don't want me to drive).


GOP turnaround
Well, they always say that when money is involved, that's when you can believe the polls. I thought we were given up for dead in August. Now Iowa Markets has Rep House/Senate up to 57% (same as Tradesports), from 30% in August. The Rep Congress probably doesn't deserve it, but thanks to Bush, a little luck (finally!!) and lower gas prices (which should have happened a long time ago, maybe if Phylo took 5 seconds to read Bloomberg's commodity report, she'd know daily where gas prices were going) those sorry asses in Congress will have been saved.

Phylo: only one idiot here. You.
You say that gas prices and oil prices aren't directly related. That's probably the stupidest thing you've ever written yet, and you've written some real doozies.

I won't even bother with trying to say anything about how the world of economics operates. I'm sure it's WAAAAY over the peak of your tinfoil hat.

GWB
He is not an idiot but he is a democrat. He is the republican party's worse nightmare. Did your taxes go down? Any drop I had tax rates were more than off set by social security tax increases, other fees, state taxes. Yes, they are related.
GWB wants to cut my social secuity so he can give more social secuity to people who do do not pay social security taxes, especially illegals. He wants to give amnesty to 20-30 million people.
He will not honestly prosecute the war but reminds us that we are predjuiced if we speak unkindly agianst the very folks who want us all dead. He will do down in history as a "James Buchanan" who never should have been elected and was a place holder until a real leader could gain the office.

response to tinkling revival
tinkling revival: "Oil prices dropped because oil refiners in the US have been stockpiling it for the better part of a year. Every available resource has been pointing it out for months, and predicting a drop in crude oil prices due to the overstocking."

Either you're wrong, or the oil companies are really stupid. I mean, why would the buy high and sell low?

So which is it, tinkling revival?

Phylo out.

3 Things Voters Care About--Really
1- SECURITY. No attack in 6 years. Most Americans could give a rat's butt if the rest of the world likes us...and if the terrorists fear our-- DEVIL, CRAZY COWBOY, WHATEVER YOU WANT TO CALL HIM--president enough to pause in their insanity...that's all right.

2- ECONOMY. Unemployment is record low. Gas prices are going down. So are interest rates. Most people don't know how this comes about--most don't care. Whatever party is in when this happens, you keep.

3- STABILITY. We've had 40 years of social upheaval. Men don't even know what to say or do any more because the rules keep changing. All the causes of the Left have already been won and they are an angry, frustrated party without a purpose. America is weary of the charge of being racist, sexist, religious intolerant. ENOUGH! They want leaders who will call marriage a marriage...who actually knows that prayer is something done any old time and not just when the cameras are running...who thinks the military, the police, firemen are the good guys.

Despite what the pundits from BOTH sides of the aisle claim...most Americans have no idea who the Vice President is...who the speaker of the House is or who Israel fought with a few months ago. They won't care for more than a 2 minute news story or a t.v. spot that there are 11 million illegals or that this GOP run Congress has not cut spending. They do not know or care that Liberals don't believe in being pro-choice for schools or that China is breathing down our economic necks.

There will be a change in November only if the 3 things I mentioned is bad.

By the way--for those who think GW is an idiot...recently, the man invited the top Conservative Radio Talk show hosts to meet with him--and allowed them to be privy to some things off the record...

Ingraham and others who had taken a page out of the Liberal Bush Bashing Book over the Miers deal, but knew that they had to somehow come back to the fold for the mid term election, just got handed a way back in...

As I listened to their...I told the President of the United States how his base feels and while I can't divulge what was said, I can tell you the President is concerned and is coming back on tract...I smiled and thought...check...watch for the mate...

what?
Phylo;

Guess I'll join in.

Gas prices go up it's the fault of Bush & he takes the heat. They come down, so again it's all another Bush conspiracy and those on the liberal left let us know it's all bad [what a spin].

If the Bush administration suddenly won the war in Iraq, all Islamo-killers left, and Iraq was a stable democracy-those on the liberal left would spin it into a plot by Bush to influence the mid-term elections. You can't win with these liberals.

The only reason [I believe] Rangel [and the others] came out against what Chavez said was they are afraid of the backlash that would happen in this country. The comments by Chavez were nothing the Democrat liberal-left base soes not feel about Bush, and Pelosi, Rangel and the rest say all the time.




Phylo: time for a new tinfoil hat
Yes, I'm sure you're right, Bush has conspired to lower gas prices. He and HALIBURTON! have conspired with his allies -- such as Iran, Venezuela, OPEC, Russia and others -- to assure that the price was artificially inflated so they could be lowered in time to influence this election.

Uh huh.

Phylo, you truly are out... of your mind. You need to get your tinfoil hat reblocked.

Phylo you ignorant twit
YES, oil prices are set on an open market... specifically, an international commodities market that the oil companies couldn't control if they tried. And I wouldn't be surprised to find out that they HAD tried. It wouldn't do them a bit of good.

New word for you, Idiot Boy: "fungible". If you don't know what it is, look it up.

Oil supplies are fungible. So the only POSSIBLE way for oil prices to be set is via the international open market. There are simply too many sources, and too many national buyers, for it to be otherwise. Unless you would like to find a way to argue that China, Iran, AND Venezuela all see Bush as their bestest-buddy.

You pathetic whiny leftist nutroot nitwit.

You've Gotta Be Right, Phylo
Iran and Venezuela dropped the price of crude just to lend support to Bush and their Republican buddies. Wonder why they didn't do that for the 2000 and, more importantly, the 2004 elections when Bush needed help?

None
The economy really doesn't matter to the average liberal in America today. They believe the jobs created (and they can't deny there have been a lot of them) are all low paying jobs for beginning workers. They believe the expansion of the economy has killed the middle class and enriched the already rich. They believe the tax cuts were for the benefit of the rich only, and they got back a dollar and fifty cents. They believe if they don't elect a democrat, their jobs will disappear in the next few years. They believe that Ford has no right to close that plant even though the average worker there makes 64 bucks an hour. In their tiny little minds, they cannot connect healthy business to good jobs, or failing businesses to the lack of jobs. It's amazing!
The only sure way to keep this Republican majority going is to keep hammering on security. And even that is iffy, since a lot of them don't see the threat.

the untold story
I don't understand why W hasn't pushed the economy issue more aggressively because I agree that it's the best, most positive untold story in the political realm currently. It's about time that he became convinced that it was time to go on the offensive instead of sitting back and letting the socialists take pot-shots at him. Certainly the facts speak for themselves but it doesn't hurt to blow your own horn again. While I always have been confident that we would hold onto both houses of Congress in the upcoming elections, I have been really encouraged recently about the prospects of Republicans maintaining majority control in both houses of Congress. And now that W is emphasizing the continued growth of the ecomomy and the impact that his tax cuts had on this amazing expansion, it's comforting to contemplate the results of the November election and the dismay, unbelief and anger of the socialists when they realize that once again they have failed to regain their "birthright". The beauty of it will be found in the fact that the reason they will have failed is precisely because they have gotten their message out, not the converse. As to the final sentence of the column, from your lips to God's ears.

Phylo
I'm more than a bit suspicious about those gas prices myself. If they jump after any GOP win in Nov, i'd be crazy to deny GOP pressure of some sort. There are other things to consider. The price per barrel is going down. Do you think Bush has direct influence over how much Iran charges for its oil per barrel?

A picture (or chart) paints a 1000 words
To see how the probability of GOP House Control has trended over the last year click on this link

http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/contractInfo.jsp?conDetailID=291849

12 months ago approximately our trading market had the republicans having a 75% probability or retaining House control.

At its lowest point the GOP were only given a 30% chance. Now as can be seen from the chart the probability is almost 60%

Thanks for your interest.

Oh my freaking LORD
Phylo, are you really that ignorant, or are you a mischievous conservative grad student in economics trolling for a laugh?

Oil prices dropped because oil refiners in the US have been stockpiling it for the better part of a year. Every available resource has been pointing it out for months, and predicting a drop in crude oil prices due to the overstocking.

Will you PLEASE attempt to learn the difference between your partisan wish list and economic reality?

GWB ignoring his pulpit duty
I'm happy to see the GOP's fortunes rising in the run-up to the election, and I'm not surprised that GWB has waited 'till the right moment to spend his political capital. Bush never rebuts the "dumb" image because he counts on his opponents misunderestimating him. He's never lost an election.

The thing that gripes me a little is, he's not been doing any politicking for his position all along, he's saved it all for now. It's good that he's more concerned with sound policy than with appearances (a relief after the poll-driven staggering of previous admin), but political appearances are part of reality, and need more attention than he's been giving them.

Mr. President, would you mind asking Karl for a post-election PR strategy to keep the poll numbers a tad higher? Believe it or not, it will make governing easier for you.

about those gas prices
Anyone out there think that the lower gas prices are the result of market driven forces?

Isn't it obvious that the White House is working with the oil companies to lower the prices just before the election?

The smart money is betting on a big rebound in prices right around the middle of November.

Phylo out.




Nanarae, Hntr Admin
Good posts. Man i can't believe a judge would throw out free ID requirements. I hope that battle continues in MO. and elsewhere. I think its coming. One of the things that an ongoing REP congress must get around to if we keep banging on them.
Huntr i've tried getting onto headsneedtoroll without being able to get past home. I realize my 9 year old grand daughter would have no difficulty, but if you get time and a chance and there is any hint you think might help, throw this old dinosaur a clue.

AudiR10
No, they will spend election day cutting tires in front of Republican "get out the vote" centers, and helping Olive Oil and Minnie Mouse get their vote recorded. And don't forget the cigarettes they have to pass out to the homeless to get them into the voting booth. They will be busy, busy busy! Judges have to be seen to make sure the polls stay open late into the night to get all them dem votes recorded, and, of course, reporters have to be seen to register their complaints of Republican disenfranchisement of poor and black voters.
You know the best defence is a good offence and the dems have taken that to a new low.

Here in Missouri, we had state ID, free. Anyone who wanted one could get it FREE. We wanted to be sure illegals didn't get to vote. A judge decided it was too hard on women who had to prove their maiden name changed to the married name and threw it out. I heard the dems screaming it would be a "poll tax". IT WAS FREE! Another win on the dem side.

FREE HELP
This week GB and the GOP had a lot of free help from images that were burned into the brains of American voters in a way that no campaign could ever come close to. combine the two monkey dictators that were in town this week plastered all over our airways calling our president the devil, along with the excessive media coverage that the Islamic radicals received showing them marching through the streets demanding death to the pope simply for the reason that he quoted something that was written over six hundred years ago provided more reason beyond a shadow of a doubt that this not the time to have Democrats in charge of anything that has to do with control of the US military. However, with the escalation of the war in Afghanistan, and every day Iraq spinning more and more out of control, politicians and politics desperately need to be on the outside looking in when it comes to running United States military. The US has a military that is second to none with trained personal who are very capable of doing their job, and they just need to be left alone to do it.

To the little monkey leaders who came and to the media who made sure that they had prime time coverage, the American voter thanks you for helping make voting decisions for the up coming elections a lot more easier for all, regardless of party affiliation.

Visit http://www.headsneedtoroll.org and post your views, thoughts and opinions and make sure to sign the online petition that will help protect your right to be able to continue to take your tax deduction for the interest you pay on your home mortgage loan.
Heads Need To Roll

Golly I hope
this momentum continues. Republican voters have a lot to be irked about, but the ones who see any chance things would be better with the socialists in charge are very few. Most of us will grunt and grumble and vote right. My American Rifleman arrived the other day and talked about the results of a left takeover. Schumer and Pelosi, Rangel and Feinstein are fanatically anti-second amendment. The more i think the more i am coming to the disgusting conclusion of voting for someone i detest because the alternative is worse. A fine situation for our country to be in, Yuck!!!

Mama was right
When you're young, you spend a lot of time yelling "You're not the boss of me!" and telling Mama and Daddy that when we are in charge, we're going to do this and that and nobody's going to stop us. Then when we get to be in charge, we end up doing what Mama and Daddy said, because, as my youngest sister conceded rueflly, "they did it that way because it WORKS."

If we don't pay attention to the way the world works when someone else is turning the handle, we're going to get ground up in the works when they stop. Most of the Democrats have been around long enough to know this is true, even if they don't like it. And so do most of their minions and sycophants, who will continue to whine but will probably spend election day sitting in their bedrooms sulking.
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