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Saturday, December 27, 2003
Larry Kudlow :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Power of Profits
by Larry Kudlow
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Corporate profits are the mother's milk of business. Rising profits lead to business expansion, and falling profits lead to business recession. And right now profits are flowing in, yet another affirmation that the Bush boom is for real and that new jobs are on the way.

The final report for third-quarter gross domestic product reveals that profits have increased a huge $101 billion, gaining 25 percent over the past year. This is just about in line with the broad advance of the stock market. More, over $1.1 trillion in new earnings has increased the profit share of GDP to 10.1 percent, way up from the cyclical low of 7.1 percent in the third quarter of 2001. This is an impressive move.

Behind the profits recovery are two key factors: cost cutting and productivity. Both reflect a more efficient business sector -- especially the productivity miracle, which has reduced unit labor costs (the largest expense for businesses) well below final product prices.

Business revenues are also beginning to pick up, meaning that next year, steady revenue growth coupled with improved profit margins will drive profits up by another 20 percent.

The Bush tax cuts are also playing a critical role in this profit recovery by significantly reducing after-tax capital costs to business. Besides giving investor returns a much-needed after-tax boost, lower tax rates on dividends and capital gains have reduced the cost-of-capital "breakeven hurdle rate" for business investment. And lower business-investment costs are being passed on in the form of reduced production costs. That's one reason why the production of business equipment and software increased 17.6 percent at an annual rate in this year's third quarter and 8 percent in the second quarter, after a lengthy decline for corporate investment.

And here's another big plus for the profits recovery: Bush's 50 percent expensing bonus for the tax write-off of new equipment purchases is playing a major role in shaving the cost of corporate capital.

The importance of accumulating corporate profits is always underestimated. Yet when corporate profits increase, sizable job expansion follows, as firms have plenty of spare cash to replace, modernize and update all of their production facilities. This, of course, includes the tech software and hardware equipment to support new demands from wireless, cable, Internet telephony and consumer electronics. Profit-funded job creation will also occur among commodity producers, energy firms, industrial smokestacks and financial businesses.

Liberal politicians love jobs, but they don't seem to favor the profits that finance jobs. It doesn't take long to think of politicians who rail against excessively profitable companies, yet it is these very same firms that create jobs with their profits. Continued...

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About The Author

Lawrence Kudlow is host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company

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