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Thursday, December 13, 2007
Larry Elder :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Subprime 'Crisis' -- Time for Government Intervention?
by Larry Elder
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Our catastrophe-obsessed traditional media calls it the subprime mortgage "crisis" or "meltdown." Here's what happened:

Borrowers with shaky creditworthiness received low interest "teaser" rates. No problem, as long as housing prices continue to rise. But with house prices stagnating, if not declining, this places some borrowers and the holders of their "paper" on financial shaky ground. In other words, lenders lent and borrowers borrowed. Some borrowers took on debt only to find themselves unable to pay their mortgages, and the carriers of their debt now find their holdings less valuable.

But what about the responsibility of both lender and borrower? The Media Research Center examined news coverage of the subprime "crisis." Of 156 stories broadcast between November 2006 and August 2007, 62 percent "ignored the consumer's responsibility for debt."

No one put a gun to either lenders' or borrowers' heads, and now both sides of the transaction find themselves in financial difficulty. Lawmakers scream for more laws. Never mind lenders already operate under many regulations including, but not limited to, full disclosure requirements.

Democrats, and many Republicans, cry for some sort of government (read "taxpayer") bailout. A New York Times editorial demands legislation, "including a rule that lenders must verify a borrower's ability to pay"!?

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., seek legislation to make Federal Housing Authority "loans more widely available in order to help both new homeowners and those struggling with abusive mortgages." They also demanded that President Bush fund nonprofit foreclosure prevention counseling, and appoint a senior administration official to oversee federal response to the "crisis."

Instead, the President has offered a sort of middle ground, suggesting a five-year freeze on mortgage rates for some subprime borrowers facing default on their mortgages.

Suppose you stayed on the sideline and rented or stayed in a smaller home in order to move up? Too bad, for the Bush plan artificially props up home prices. The President's plan also enables some homeowners to receive Federal Housing Authority loans in which the government -- taxpayers -- pay lenders in the event of a default. The plan also does nothing to prevent lawsuits by investors who hold the mortgaged securities in expectation of a certain return.

George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen says, "We've all heard about the defaults on subprime mortgage loans. But so far, the real story is how little the broader American economy has suffered. Today, banks usually sell their loans to third parties. You might have originally borrowed money from Wells Fargo, but now a bank overseas cashes your mortgage checks.

"If a large group of people can't pay their mortgages, they may lose their homes. But the banks don't suffer as they used to -- local American lenders have already converted those loans into cash and sold off their risk. In fact, German regional banks suffered some of the most significant losses from bad American mortgages. Other European and Asian banks and hedge funds took their lumps as well. American banks essentially bought insurance by exporting their risk overseas."

Let's not minimize the trouble faced by thinly collateralized borrowers and their lenders, given the soft housing market. But the financial difficulties affecting both sides of transactions voluntarily entered into do not warrant a taxpayer bailout.

U.S. homeowners' equity today equals almost $11 trillion. Price declines for this year and next year may amount to $6 billion, or a 0.05 percent decline -- a worry, but hardly Judgment Day.

Christopher Cagan, of First American Real Estate Solutions, estimates that "the impact of rate sensitivity and subsequent defaults will be well below one-half percent of total mortgage debt outstanding" and spread out over several years.

Donald Trump, who knows a bit about crisis management, having dealt with his own financial "meltdown," suggested a simple, direct approach: Cut a deal with your lender. Similarly, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has already urged banks and borrowers to get together and renegotiate the terms of their loans.

So what would a bailout say to those who avoided the subprime lending fervor? The Wall Street Journal reports that unlike Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs "maintain(ed) relatively small holdings of collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, the complex mortgage-related securities whose rapid devaluation prompted the massive writ-downs at other firms." Should government reward the shortsighted losers and, by extension, punish firms such as Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers that had the foresight to protect themselves?

People in the insurance business use a term called "moral hazard." This means actions, however well-intended, that shield people from the consequences of their behavior lead to even more irresponsible behavior. Secretary Paulson recently said, "I have no interest in bailing out lenders or property speculators."

OK, then butt out!

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About The Author
Larry Elder is a syndicated radio talk show host and best-selling author. His latest book, "What's Race Got to Do with It?" is available now.
 
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What should the government do?
I think this is a complex situation.

The government is not entirely blameless. When the Feds cut the interest rates to the bone, they should have known that everyone and their brother was going to buy houses, cars and other high ticket items, and that people who didn't know what they were doing were going to jump into the game.

The President encouraged poor people to buy. After 9/11, he told everyone to "go shopping" in order to keep the economy afloat.

And people did just that, even though they were hit hard in the pocketbook by the financial rollercoaster, and the economy, which was teetering over the abyss, came back from the edge and approached normal.

The President also bragged about the high rate of "home ownership," though it was really the banks that owned those houses, and it was dubious whether the new homeowners would have the wherewithal to keep up with the payments down the line.

Certainly, it is true that the buyer should beware, but there were also many unscrupulous realtors and lending institutions that took advantage of the naivte of the newbies to homeownership. As WC Fields said, there is a sucker born every minute.

At the beginning of the housing "boom," I had a run-in with an unscrupulous realty, that tried to set me up with a bogus loan. I knew it wasn't what I wanted and said so. They pretended to agree with me, but kept offering me the same shady contract.

I escaped with my money, and tried to report them to the Board of Realtors, who seemed to only care about covering the backsides of their members.

Socialism Blows
For every single "problem" in society, government has a solution. Imagine that. Politicians who want more power and influence for themselves at the expense of our liberty.

This generation of Americans is pretty gullible. As were our fathers and grandfathers, who fell for the New Deal.

My dream is that we will one day wake up and demand our birthright: real liberty, and a life free from governemnt oppression.

So here are some of my ideas
1) The government should require the schools to be teaching high schoolers about mortgages, including how to read a contract, what is a good or bad loan, and how to know what you can afford. This is much better than the Leftist drivel they currently teach.

2) The Board of Realtors should be required to hold their members accountable, to spot scheisters, and to take reports of bad behavior on the part of customers, instead of making it so difficult to report shady behavior that the burned customer goes away.

One of the problems is shifty realtors who get kickbacks from shady loan companies. If a realtor has a history of dealing with these no-goodsters, they should have to pay the price.

3) Make it illegal to schedule in "balloon payments" and other payment hikes if it is clear that the buyer won't be able to meet their obligation later, based on their current income. If this means turning people down for loans, so be it.

4) If the government encourages people to participate in the economy in a way that is over their head, they need to admit it. I like the "free market" solution of making the loan companies renegotiate the loans if at all possible. After all, the loan company is just as much at fault for approving a loan too freely to begin with.

Government...
...caused the problems. Government solutions only threaten to make the problems worse. The real answer: get the government out of the money manipulation business.

What the government should do
is NOTHING. Actually they can do a little something. Senators like Chuckie Cheesehead of NY could STFU and quit saying that banks should lend to these individuals who can't afford it.

This is NOT the big problem that the government liars and the News Media make it out to be. Let the people who bought these mortgage pachages as a risky investment lose, let the banks lose, and let the people who bought the houses in an inflated market lose.

Racism
Now we have Jesse Jackson claiming racism and we should bail out the people we have been supporting since the war on poverty began. In the real world some of these loans should have never been written but lenders were coerced into giving everyone the American dream. My dream is for the gummit to stay the hell out of my life. As a friend of mine so eloquently put it, if you can't make it in this country you can't make it anywhere.

What you may not know
about the sub-prime mortgage and credit cards.
The whole business is unethical. Many of the sub-prime mortgage holders took out the mortgage at already high interest rates that people with good credit don't have to mess with. Mortgage holders took mortgages at interest rates of 8% and higher knowing they had an ARM but hoped in two years they would have their credit ratings higher so they could refinance at the lower rate. These people paid a high rate of interest right at the start of their mortgage. For many this didn't happen and they found themselves paying 11 or 12% interest rates which in many cases raised their payments 3 or 4 hundred dollars. Even people with no credit problems would have a hard time making this payment. The credit card industry makes tons of money off late fees and over the limit fees which in many cases are put in place by the credit card companies themselves. How many of you have had a credit limit remaining of 28 or 30 $ on your cards only to go over the limit when interest charges and other card fees are added to your balance and then you have to pay an over the limit charge--not because you went over your card limit but the company put you over the limit with their charges. This happened to me and my payment went from $35 to 63$ because of the company charges. Is this legal? Evidently it is, but whose fault is it? The mortgage companies and the credit card companies are suffering from greed and business practices that are at least questionable but which are legal because our law makers make them so. So don't blame the people who want to own a home but blame the companies who want to make themselves rich off people who only want to own a home.

Practical Skills in High School?
Mountain Rose observes that we should actually teach something practical in high school - such as how mortgages, interest, lending, and homeownership actually work. I happen to agree, and would add a number of other items as well. Unfortunately, we have an education system built on the premise that it should be providing classical education - not something connected to the real world. Classical education in high school has little relevance save for the 1 in 5 who start that will actually go on to college.

But then, we're not concerned about the 4 out of 5 who won't, and who instead, will go into the work world from high school. As a result, they are given little of value to prepare themselves for the decisions they will be making.

It is ironic how our ancestors understood this - and we do not. They taught the basics of reading, writing and arithmatic in the first 8 years - and most never went to high school, and had no need of it. Even today, the reading skills required for newspapers are targeted to the level of skill readers have after leaving the 7th grade, and the level of math that is in use does not exceed the basic skills of addition, subtraction, multiplication and division - all learned in the first 8 years.

For the 4 of 5, High School is little more than a baby sitter. What a waste of everyone's time and money.

Risk vs Reward
One of the basic precepts of economics is that in order to attract capital, a riskier venture must offer a greater potential return. Ergo, mortgage borrowers with low credit scores, hard to verify incomes, etc. pay higher rates because the risk of default is higher among such borrowers. I think it particularly ironic that Je$$e Jackson is crying racism, since in fact making loans to those who would not qualify for them using standard criteria should be hailed as affirmative action lending.

Anyone with any sense
knows that houses "given" to people for "nothing down" will be repos soon enough and available for a song. If you have nothing into it, you have nothing to lose. Welcome to government help 101.

Once again those responsible
citizens are facing bailing out those who are not. And as someone who opted to stay out of the whole nutty housing market of the past several years, save my $$, I find it reprehensible that now my tax $$ will be going to help "bail out" those who jumped in with little consideration.

Just when I think the "general welfare" clause can't be stretched any thinner, something like this comes along, and proves me wrong. Perhaps the wording should be changed to "prevent general stupidity" among the citizens b/c really that's what has come to.

Why are we so much dumber now?
When this country became independent from the crown we wanted freedom. If you read Thomas Paine's "Common Sence" you'll see that the government of King George was the problem.

230 years later we've raised a generation that thinks government is the solution to every problem.

We should be 230 years smarter, but we're not.

I've said it before
and I'll say it again--George Bush is BAD NEWS. It's that whole *compassionate conserative* crap again. Which in English means to excuse those who exhibt no personal responsibility. And we wonder what is wrong with society?!

Vote for Huckabee and get more of the same.

Ron on subprime mortgages
Local government could solve the subprime mortgage situation by repealing all property taxes which can double the monthly mortgage payment.

sunshine capitalists

yet another government program to underwrite peoples' stupidity, greed and egotism.

apparently a lot more Americans are "sunshine capitalists"--aka closet socialists--than they're willing to admit.

The real problem
layoffs. 250,000 for financials, all the jobs in manufacturing and construction we have been losing every month in the job growth report, replaced by government jobs, healthcare (Medicare/Medicaid spending), Education (tax revenues again), and bars and restaurants.

We grew real estate agents from 600,000 to 1.5 million and now don't even need the 600,000 in this slump. Many "laid off" don't qualify for unemployment and don't file because they didn't pay into the system.

Also, there are probably a lot of illegals being laid off due to places like Az. cracking down.

Cities face huge shortfalls and will all probably have to begin laying off gov. workers due to the over $900 billion loss of property related tax revenues.

All those mean less spending. Less spending means fewer jobs. Yellow Freight, (I believe that was the co. mentioned last night on Kudlow's show) has had to lay off 20% due to less shipping going on.

Consumers have $915 billion in credit card debt. Now that they can't get a home equity loan to pay it off, they will have to cut spending, probably in 2008 after Christmas maxes out the rest of their cards.

42% of the jobs in the "boom" under Bush was housing related.

This is a huge problem which is why the Fed, foreign central banks, and Congress are all in a panic.

Roselover
As far as I know, no one is forced to max out their credit cards or take a loan that they can't pay. I personally know people who bought a home, then kept refinancing to gain cash for cars, etc. If you're not qualified for a conforming loan, you'll pay the price.

let it crash?
i think that there is some value in letting the individuals duke it out with the lenders.

if the lenders foreclose, they are left with a house that has no market. if they move it, they will undoubtedly lose lots of money.

what to do.

the lender, in its own best interest, will need to renegotiate with the borrower. in return he will receive a lot more on the house than foreclosing and getting relatively nothing in return.

Thanks, Larry Elder
Thanks for speaking up for people like me, who live within our means. Looks like if enough people make the same greedy mistakes, they can get politicians to help them and everyone else's expense:
http://walrus.townhall.com/g/682f61e4-98d9-4bd8-b55f-a4f8eb 9dfa44
http://walrus.townhall.com/g/63790f5e-ebe9-475a-9fed-986845 f95373
http://walrus.townhall.com/g/3485b9ee-23b4-4437-b587-da449e 7dd735

roselover ....you are RIGHT!!!
"Mortgage holders took mortgages at interest rates of 8% and higher knowing they had an ARM but hoped in two years they would have their credit ratings higher so they could refinance at the lower rate. These people paid a high rate of interest right at the start of their mortgage. For many this didn't happen and they found themselves paying 11 or 12%"

You are absolutely right! Call me stupid, but that is what happened to me and my family. Everyone seems to want to bash the homeowners who took out these loans. So bash away. We wanted our own home. Was it the right time for us? Maybe not, but we got the home we wanted. A small farm. A home. And we figured to refinance. 5 or 6 months after we got our home, my health became bad and I became totally disabled and unable to work. We had one of those 8 percent ARM loans. As things stood, even with me unable to work, we could manage the mortgage. But when it came time to refinance, with me being disabled we could not get refinancing without putting alot of cash up front. Our payment jumped over 400 bucks. 6 months later it was due to jump again almost as much. We knew this mortgage was an ARM but we were dumb, stupid, whatever folks want to call us and quite frankly didnt know that the payments could jump that high like they did. So we stood the chance of loosing our home.
We didnt want public money, we didnt want ANYONE giving us money to bail us out. All we wanted was a chance to keep our home at a reasonable interest rate.

Thanks to the deal the prez negotiated with lenders, we have gotten our interest rate frozen. And NOT at a low teaser rate. 8.25 is a good and more than fair rate of return for any investor.
Its taken a big worry off my family. We have a good breathing space. And we are paying our own mortgage. And I think you will find many like us. We dont want money from the taxpayers. Just a fair shake.

Caveat Emptor!
The Sub-Prime Crisis seems to be limited to a small percentage of home buyers. Offering the loans appears to have been unethical and/or immoral, but not ILLEGAL! Therefore, they are not covered by The Courts.

One More Time, WHO doesn’t know what VARIABLE RATE means?!

Roselover
I have an even easier solution:

Rather than blaming eeevil corporations for your overspending, live within your means and don't spend more with your credit card than you can afford to pay at the end of the month.

Let the economy crash
Government should keep its hands out of this mess unless it is to prosecute "evil doers".

But they didn't when the Savings and Loans created a similar mess on Reagan's watch and we bailed the S&Ls out.

Right now government bookkeeping has gone into the private sector, or the other way around.

Last time I heard, economists expect 500,000 homes to go into foreclosure this year, let alone the following years. The zeroes start to confuse me but at average loan of 200,000 dollars, that comes out to 1,000,000,000,000. That is one trillion dollars the banks and lenders are going to have to absorb as a partial loss.

Economists also expect housing prices to decrease 10% to 25%. That would leave the lenders with an automatic loss of 10 to 25%. Of one trillion dollars. In one year. With more to follow. If that is not a recipe for a DEPRESSION, let alone a recession, what is?

Just because some banks and lending institutions have exported some of the loans, with globalization we will all feel it soon, with one cascading economy after another.






farmsalot
At least your situation isn't costing the taxpayer anything. It was as suggested by Trump, a renegotiated loan.
My problem is, as Larry wrote about, the fact that everyone is looking to the government to bail the rest out with our TAX DOLLARS. No one was forced to take on these loans on either side. It's not the government's fault that the uniformed and the sometimes unethical got together and made a mess of the mortgage industry. Let the chips fall where they may. Nobody was crying a river of tears and begging the government to bail out the all the losers in the DotCom crash, why is everyone doing so now???

Bleeding HL
Where were you when the housing market shooting up at 10 to 15% per year during the boom?? So, the market is correcting itself by dropping 10%. What's the big deal? Most people only saw gains on paper, their house was worth 200,000 before the boom, worth 250,000 at the peak, and now will be worth 225,000 after the dust settles. Point is, how much did this owner (who is typical of most homeowners) really lose? The answer is nothing. What did he gain? Nothing.

Paper losses do not start depressions, only actual losses. Untill Joe average homeowner sells at a loss/ gain there are no losses or gains for the economy.

Why
would anyone in their right mind jump on an ARM when interest rates have nowhere else to go but up?

Any goverment intervention a.k.a. meddling in this so called mortgage crisis really means that any and all mortgage contracts are really not worth the paper they are written on.


BHL
There is no comparison here. The bailout of the Savings and Loan was required because of the FDIC. An organization that your boy commie FDR created by the way. Also, people like your boy Klinton had a lot to do with those failures.

BLH Math
Even if your numbers are correct, that's only the value of the loans. It's not as if the banks have nothing to show for it -- they own all the houses now. True, the values have dropped between 5-20% depending on the area, but that means they're only losing 5-20% of that, not the full amount. And it's not like the housing market won't rebound in the next few years, as it always does. The banks will get their money.

Foreclosures
Like most liberal rants this one is full of stuff. Foreclosure is on the rise but, as I posted early this morning, it is only a small fraction of the outstanding loans. It is even a smaller fraction where the people holding the loan are going to take a big loss and that is in the areas that had overpriced real estate that has since corrected.

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/587 58.htm

http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/mortgages/20070618 -paletta.html

Blaming others only hurts yourself
I fear for the people who think this was not the borrowers' doing, because people who expect lenders or the government to look out for borrowers' interests are headed for financial trouble.

I pay a lot less for things than people with poor credit do. My mortgage is under $700 per month for a new 3200 square foot house. I actually earned interest on the money I paid for my last car. I pay exactly $0 in credit card fees and interest every year.

You might think that's not fair, that everyone should get the same deal I get, that somehow "people like me" are taking advantage of "people like you." On the contrary, that same deal is available to anyone who looks after their own interests and maintains good credit long enough.

Good credit is about keeping your commitments and not committing to more than you can handle, and I know from experience you can do that no matter how poor you are.

When we bought our first home 7 years ago, I was making a lowly intern's salary. Another couple in my family was making about 50% more than we were, and they bought a house almost exactly the same time.

We took one third off the amount the mortgage company prequalified us for, and bought a house that was just a little too small. The other couple convinced the mortgage company to raise their prequalified level by $200 per month, because they were getting a lot of overtime pay at the time, and bought a house that was a lot bigger than they needed.

Guess who was able to use the equity in their home to upgrade six years later at a fantastic monthly payment, and guess who was one of the first foreclosure "victims" of the subprime "crisis?"

BHL
"Economists also expect housing prices to decrease 10% to 25%."

DIDN'T YOU WANT MORE AFFORDABLE HOUSING?????

Ok, so now you got it!

;-)

I finally had to comment on something
To everyone complaining about the high interest rates on subprime mortgages, "unfair" practices dolled out by credit companies, credit scores ruining your life, etc...

Quit your whining, read your fine print and if you don't agree with the terms and services, then don't partake. If you don't have the money immediately to buy a house, car or whatever trinket that you want to put on a credit card, then you either play by the rules the ones with the money set out for you, or do without. Save your money and buy outright. Find a different lender. Fix your credit rating. Do what it takes, but for Christ's sake don't blame George Bush. If you are so weak minded that you can't take responsibility for your own actions, think for yourself and must rely on other's opinions and research, then you get what you deserve. i don't feel bad for anyone that's getting foreclosed on right now. They knew how thin they were stretching the money just to get into that house. I'm pretty sure that a significant portion of those whiners haven't contemplated things like getting rid of cable, phone service, cell phones, fast food or an automobile in order to stay in their precious house. Perhaps a more modest existence would have stopped these folks from getting up to their eyeballs in debt. you made your bed, now lie in it. Don't come looking to me for sympathy or money.

Let's sum it all up
To sum up the truth:
1- Credit is a privilege, not a right. People should stop acting as if they are "entitled" to credit at good rates. They are only entitled to what they can best negotiate from the person with the money that is willing to lend it.
2- Government intervention= some lawmaker telling someone with money what terms they are allowed to charge when loaning out their own money. Please refer to point 1 at this time... they are not obligated to loan it at all. so Government intervention may actually reduce the number of lenders out there. What then?
3- Disclosure laws already mandate that rate terms, finance charges, etc be fully disclosed to borrower. Pleading ignorance to the documents signed is just plain stupid. Every borrower is entitled to review, legal/ professional counsel, etc. If they don't understand it, why are they signing it?
4- By negating the power of signed contracts through government intervention, are we not shooting ourselves in our own foot? Can I simply claim I didn't undertand the terms of every other contract I signed?
5- Personal economics suck in this country. Many people treat credit as a source of income, rather than as the source of debt it actually is. I do not believe we should tread lightly on those individuals that abuse the system for their personal gain, only to want an "out" handed to them later on a silver platter.
6- Lenders assume the risk when they loan the $$. The government, ie taxpayers, had no say in the risk at that time... why then should be held accountable for anothers actions? Besides, the point of interest is to offset risk. There will undoubtedly be many defaults, but they are making up for those on the loans that don't.
7- Investors assume risk when they buy stocks. There are no guarantees. By investing in an unscrupulous company, they assumed that risk. They should not be shielded either. Again, they were not forced into the investment.

S&L's, BC, & "The worst economy"
Congress (controlled by whom?) deregulated the S&L's in the '80's. It's almost as if they wanted deregulation to fail while in the process raking in some serious $$$ for their pals, because they removed almost all restrictions & oversight. S&L's speculated in an office building boom (which they couldn't before) until the "Tax Reform" of 1986 clotheslined them.

Then the established Left & pop media carped constantly about the S&L crisis, & claimed "the worst economy in 50 yrs," hardee har, I remember worse under Nixon & Carter, until Bill Clinton made the S&L crisis go away. How did he do this miracle? It was amazing. The day after he was inaugurated, suddenly nobody talked or wrote about the S&L crisis again. It just vanished from the pop media & Congressional deliberations. It became a nonissue just like that.

Of course we can hark back to the other time an activist government undertook to rescue the American economy from a short-term crisis by taking over & managing everything. By emulating the European fascists of the time, FDR parlayed a hiccup (caused by the Fed, ultimately) into an ongoing decade-long economic morass we now call the Great Depression.

Subsidizing stupidity & crookedness
So if we bail out the stupid & devious, we punish the thrifty & responsible, as well as the taxpayer. Home prices are "artificially propped up," good for owners & bankers/investors (& local gvmts that get property taxes) at the expense of buyers & the general public.

We also have hurt the foreign investors, which means they will want a bigger return to buy our "securitized" mortgages henceforth.

One of the prime causes of this mess, the pressure put on lenders to fill their portfolio with a quota of loans to poor &/or minorities, goes unidentified & uncorrected.

Furthermore, we encourage such behavior in the future because there will be an expectation of bailout & thus more risktaking.

Now, I can't wait until the third world debt situation becomes a "crisis" again, & recognized international finance expert Bono starts urging us to bail out the World B- I mean, the poor people in these countries that borrowed money from the World Bank, yet again.

Sage - Another Great Article of Wisdom
The only way to fix this mess is to let the chips fall as they may. The only thing that Government intervention can offer is a corrupt ending.

Bleeding Heart Liberal Is A Realist
Bleeding Heart Liberal offers, "Last time I heard, economists expect 500,000 homes to go into foreclosure this year, let alone the following years. The zeroes start to confuse me but at average loan of 200,000 dollars, that comes out to 1,000,000,000,000. That is one trillion dollars the banks and lenders are going to have to absorb as a partial loss."

I agree with you completely on letting the market settle without Government involvement.

As to the losses, the banks will still own the homes, so only the value loss, if any, will be banked as a loss. Using your numbers, a high of 20 percent loss on one trillion dollars of realestate is 200 billion dollars. Such numbers will not send the market into any kind of a tailspin.

No worries.

ARMs Are Short-Term Tools, Only
misterbradleytoyou writes, "Why would anyone in their right mind jump on an ARM when interest rates have nowhere else to go but up?"

Speculators. With nearly nothing down a little monthly payments, one could pick up a home one day and sell it five years later, at an improved price, before the ARM kicks in.

The reason high-risk investments can pay so well is simply because they can just as easily destroy you.

Half the Equation, Mac
Your math assumes the value of the average home is zero - i.e. the bank will never be able to recognize a penny from the sale of the foreclosed home and the $200,000 mortgage you cite will be a total loss. If there is any equity at all in the home, it will take the first loss. But assuming that none of these homes have any equity value and prices decline by 20%, you are talking about a $200 billion loss, not a trillion. This risk is spread out globally among buyers of mortgage-backed securities. 2007 global GDP is expected to exceed $50 trillion, so we're talking about 0.4% of one-year earnings. Global asset value is in excess of $150 trillion, so now we're talking about a value reduction of 0.13%.

Mr. Elder also leaves out the fact that the vast majority of mortgage frauds are committed by BORROWERS overstating their incomes to get access to larger mortgages, not by unscrupulous lenders. Logic dictates that borrowers who have to do this are going to be the biggest credit risks and are likely the first to face foreclosures.

Let the banks privately restructure their loans, but before the government does a single thing to force changes to alter the terms of binding legal contracts let's investigate how many current foreclosures are actually the result of illegal lender activity versus poor decisionmaking and borrower fraud.

As usual, the market will have sorted out this mess long before any government "action" can take effect.

Correction
$400 billion loss, not $200. Don't want to take anyone's eye off the ball.

What about?
What about the fact that this is a global problem? Our economy can be affected for a decade if it goes badly.

However, I agree that we need to keep the Federal Government out of it.

Of course, the Fed is a private corporation so their involvement isn't "government."

The Central Banks are working together here and abroad on this. Let them deal with it. Here is what Max Whitmore says in his latest article.
quote:
Bernanke’s $64 Billion Bombshell
http://tinyurl.com/254k3b
======================

He is definitely in the camp that the Fed has the answer to this problem. Hope he is right and the rest are wrong.

Mortgage monkey business
Mike at 6:44 AM is correct: Lenders were told they were racists because they wouldn't lend money to risky minorities. So the lenders bent over and allowed their institutions to lend money to high-risk borrowers so they wouldn't be called racists.

This is a tempest in a tea pot. Anyone who borrows tens of thousands of dollars should be aware of his/her financial situation BEFORE signing the deal. If it's an adjustable rate mortgage, the borrower should understand exactly what that entails.

Simplification of the lending process would help the ignorant. Plain English loan documents would help, too. In America, a high school diploma 50 years ago is equal to a 4-year BA today, so it's no surprise that college grads today can't understand financial documents.

Why should the US taxpayers bail out defaulting borrowers who were NOT defrauded?


It is still government interferrence...
Mountain Rose

Some of your recommendations are government interferences. If people are not smart enough to understand what they are getting in to, it is not the US taxpayers’ problem. If people "gambled" and lost, it is still not the US taxpayers’ problem. If there are any lenders who committed fraud, then there are existing laws to deal with them, but not through taxpayers’ monies. If lenders made bad loans, then let them and their stockholders pay for this not the taxpayers. IMHO!!!
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