WASHINGTON -- It's one of the biggest unknowns bugging would-be buyers of houses and condos this summer: Will Congress let the $8,000 nonrepayable tax credit for first-time purchasers expire as scheduled 14 weeks from now?

Or will the credit get a second life and be extended for another six to 12 months, taking pressure off buyers, realty agents and settlement companies?

That's an especially urgent matter if you're a buyer just starting to shop and you see entry-level prices bottoming out or rebounding in many local markets. The tax credit statute requires buyers to fully close on their purchases -- not just be under contract -- no later than Nov. 30. This doesn't leave a lot of leeway for people who haven't yet decided on a specific house and who haven't nailed down mortgage financing.

The whole process of negotiating offers, signing sales contracts, applying for a loan and completing the closing can easily extend for two months -- or a lot more if things get off track.

Given the rapidly approaching deadline, what's the likelihood that Congress will blow the whistle and allow at least a little extra time? Here's a quick overview: Though Congress technically is on its summer break, most members of the Senate and House use part of the August recess to meet with and listen to constituents back in their home districts.

This year, the two biggest housing trade groups -- the 1.2 million-member National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders -- are spending the month mounting unusually intense grass-roots lobbying campaigns to make the case for extending the credit, and maybe even expanding it. The effort is targeted first at the districts of members of the two tax-writing committees -- House Ways and Means and Senate Finance -- but is expected to cover most other members as well, according to officials of the two groups.

Delegations of homebuilders and realty brokers already have begun descending on district offices, delivering what Jerry Howard, president and CEO of the builders association, calls "the hard economic facts" -- the numbers of houses sold in each congressman's district that are attributable to the tax credit; the economic ripple effects on local businesses, manufacturers and service industries; new jobs and income; plus the additional tax revenues that all this activity will help produce for local governments. Continued...