WASHINGTON -- Hillary Clinton's "surprising" win over Barack Obama in the nation's first primary -- in defiance of what polls had predicted and political prognosticators had projected -- has had pundits puzzled.

It must have been the tears, goes the conventional wisdom. She choked up and women raced to the rescue, voting for Clinton over Obama 46 percent to 34 percent. But were they real tears?

They were real to the extent they were there at all. What Americans witnessed wasn't the studied tear rolling all the way to the jaw line, an image of emotion perfected by Hillary's husband. It was more a catch in the throat and the hint of tears welling behind eyes that betrayed a flagging spirit.

Women recognized it right away -- a mixture of fatigue and vulnerability. "It was the first time I've ever thought she was someone I'd like to have a glass of wine with," said a female friend of mine, who is no Clinton fan.

That sentence alone was more predictive than any poll of what was about to happen. When a woman says she's ready to pour wine with another woman, she means all previous misunderstandings are forgiven. Symbolically, it's assent to the question, "Can we talk?" and recognition of an ancient

consensus: Girls stick together when boys gang up.

But let's get something straight: Clinton wasn't emotional because she cares deeply about the country. She was near tears because she cares deeply about becoming the first woman president.

Thwarted ambition is the politician's waterboard.

Hillary's human moment was sparked when a woman at a Portsmouth, N.H., event asked a personal question: "How do you do it? I mean, as a woman, I know how hard it is to get out of the house and get ready. Who does your hair?"

Clinton laughed and said she gets help with her hair most days. Then came the emotion as she segued into her deeply held conviction that she is the only person who can save this country.

"I couldn't do it if I didn't passionately believe it was the right thing to do. I have so many opportunities from this country, I just don't want to see us fall backwards."

What she meant, of course, was that she doesn't want to see herself fall backward. That subtext was clear as she

continued:

"You know, this is very personal for me. It's not political. ... I see what's happening. ... It's about our country. It's about our kids' futures.

And it's really about all of us together."

Well, yes and no. It's about those things, but it's mostly about Hillary and Bill, who cut their deal and sealed their fates long ago. Bill had his turn at the presidency and now it is hers. We're talking destiny here. Continued...