Washington is atwitter. Mitt Romney will give a "JFK speech" Thursday
accounting for his Mormonism the way then-Sen. John F. Kennedy dealt with
his Catholicism in 1960. Political junkies just love Kennedy nostalgia. So
profound is the Kennedy cargo cult that Michael Dukakis - who was as much a
reincarnation of JFK as Weird Al Yankovic is of Frank Sinatra - tapped Texas
Sen. Lloyd Bentsen as his 1988 running mate because he believed it would
revive the "Boston-Austin" axis of the JFK-LBJ ticket. Recalling the
electricity and verve of that Democratic ticket, who among us can deny
Dukakis' wisdom?
Such are the dangers of political nostalgia, which often drives candidates
to repeat history as farce.
Until recently, Romney was rightly reluctant to give a "JFK speech." He
seemed to understand that JFK's 1960 address to the Greater Houston
Ministerial Association has become the stuff of legend and any effort to
match it would come up short. "I probably could never do something that
would compare to what John F. Kennedy did," Romney said in October. "His was
a masterpiece in American political history."
Well, now the former Massachusetts governor is going to talk about "faith in
America," and in Texas no less. We don't know what he'll say, but it's easy
to guess why he's saying it: Mike Huckabee. The Southern Baptist minister
and former Arkansas governor is leading in Iowa polls, scuttling Romney's
plan to use a victory there as a springboard to the nomination. Huckabee's
charm, skill and socially conservative record explain much of his success.
And Romney's Olympian hair, hypnotic teeth, squishy record and
yacht-salesman demeanor are all important factors in why he can't seal the
deal with some Iowa voters.
But there's another factor: Romney's heresy. I don't mean this in a
pejorative sense, though others do. Mormonism is seen as a non-Christian
cult by many conservative Christians, and a Romney nomination or presidency,
they fear (I don't), would serve to advance the mainstreaming of Mormonism.
In fairness, the Christian right is no monolith, and Romney has many
religious conservatives in his corner. If Huckabee weren't in the race, he'd
have more.
Still, Romney is marching into a theological headwind the other candidates
aren't. It's not a question of "Mormon public policy." Some of the most
effective conservatives in Washington are Mormons. What rankles is the
widespread characterization - mischaracterization in their eyes - of
Mormonism as merely another denomination of Christianity. Phrases like "a
stronghold of Satan's" (applied to Utah) and "false prophecy" (applied to
the "cult") get bandied about in some circles. Others are coldly analytical;
a Mormon president, they correctly adduce, would only aid the Church of
Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints' remarkable success at proselytizing at
home and abroad.
How can Romney address this concern? It's not like he could - or should -
say he's no Mormon role model. And talking theology at all is only likely to
exacerbate his problem with the voters who care about it, i.e. the voters he
needs.
In 1960, Catholics numbered somewhere between a quarter and a third of the
electorate, politically dominating some states. Today, Mormons amount to
roughly 2 percent, and most are concentrated in or around Utah. In many
primary contests, Kennedy's Catholicism was an asset. In Wisconsin's open
primary, many GOP Catholics crossed party lines, securing Kennedy's victory
over Hubert Humphrey. Mormon Democrats for Romney are unlikely to have a
similar impact.
Also, in 1960, Kennedy tackled his version of the "religion issue" head-on
in the primaries but delivered "The Speech" only after securing the
nomination. He pledged to uphold a severe separation of church and state.
So far, Romney's stance has been much more akin to that of 1928 Democratic
nominee Al Smith, who largely refused to discuss his faith. Smith's loss was
a complicated affair, with anti-Catholic bigotry part of the equation. But
his defeat also owed to the fact that he opposed Prohibition (God bless him)
- alleged proof Smith that was a pawn of the anti-Prohibition Catholic
Church.
There's nothing like that going on today. Indeed, the people Romney needs to
win over believe that there should be more, not less, room for religion in
public life. He won't gain votes by calling them bigots - no matter how
gently - either. And the last thing Romney can afford to do is backpedal on
his religious faith. That would be a flip-flop too far.
What he needs to do is reject the Kennedy comparison entirely and sell his
candidacy on its own merits. Electability is still more important than
theology to most Republicans, and that's where he should take his stand.
Instead, he's heading to Texas to play a game he can't win.
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