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Saturday, July 07, 2007
Jonah Goldberg :: Townhall.com Columnist
Time to Check Candidates' Expiration Dates
by Jonah Goldberg
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Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


Politics is about moments. Senators Barack Obama and John McCain are all the proof you need. McCain has been trying to re-create the magic of 2000, despite the fact that he lost that year. When he tells audiences to get ready for "straight talk," he sounds like a rerun of a canceled TV show.

In politics, there's no such thing as a second first date.

Meanwhile, Obama is having a fantastic first date with the American electorate, as evidenced by fundraising numbers that are as spectacular as McCain's are abysmal.

People usually don't want to date someone they've known for a long time. It's common to be romantically interested in the new guy or gal in the office; it's more rare to suddenly think Bob from accounting is a dreamboat after working with him for 20 years.

This is one of the great tensions between the dynamics of the primaries and the general elections. Winning the nomination usually requires building up a network of support among the rank and file. People who've been around a long time are usually best equipped to do this. But people who've been around a long time are usually the least appealing candidates when it comes time to run in the general elections.

In 2003, The National Journal's Jonathan Rauch floated what he called "the Law of 14." "With only one exception since the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt," Rauch wrote, "no one has been elected president who took more than 14 years to climb from his first major elective office to election as either president or vice president."

Lyndon Johnson was the one exception, taking 23 years to go from his first election to the House to the vice presidency in 1960. Of course, that squeaker of an election was an outlier in that all sorts of longstanding trends were in peril. For example, had Nixon beat Kennedy, he would have been the first sitting V.P. elected straight to the presidency since Martin Van Buren.

Indeed, vice presidents and legislators (particularly senators) have similar problems in that they don't seem like men of action. Veeps are usually yes-men while senators are "yes, but" men. They talk and talk, defining their leadership in terms of co-sponsoring this and seeking cloture on that. Worse, most senators who run for president do so after hanging around for a long time. Not only does this mean their shelf life tends to expire, but they only become more senatorial.

Here's a tip: You will never hear the words "President Christopher Dodd."

Historically, the most successful candidates have been governors and generals. In 2004, American Enterprise Institute president Christopher DeMuth crunched the numbers and found that 55 percent of our elected presidents were either governors or generals, while "only three of our 31 elected presidents have come from a primarily legislative background, and none was re-elected."

So you have a nomination process that's biased in favor of people who've spent their careers collecting chits from the power brokers, and a general-election environment that generally wants a fresh face. In 1996, everyone thought former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander was the GOP's best hope for beating Bill Clinton. Instead, the GOP decided it was Bob Dole's turn. That turned out swell.

What does all this mean for today? Well, obviously, it's bad news for McCain. But Mitt Romney, a former governor whose face is so fresh-looking it's like he preserves it in Mylar, looks to be in pretty good shape. Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson are both running out the clock of their respective shelf lives, but one could say they're fresher to the American public than that suggests. Rudy was born again on 9/11, and Thompson left the Senate before going stale and has been rejuvenated by the magic of Hollywood.

In other words, if you put the disastrous behavior of the GOP these last few years aside (a big if, of course), the Republican field looks pretty good. Bush may not be the albatross Democrats hope. None of these guys is running as the Bush heir apparent, and no Democrat has won the White House without facing an unpopular GOP incumbent in more than 40 years.

The more interesting question is what this means for the Democrats, specifically Hillary Clinton. If her tenure as first lady counts - and I think for many people, including Hillary, it does - then her shelf life is almost up, too. Indeed, I think the Clinton name may be more perishable than the expiration date suggests.

Meanwhile, the young, fresh-faced, un-senatorial Obama is clearly having his moment. The problem, as McCain can tell him, is that having your moment in the primaries is no guarantee of getting the nomination.

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About The Author
Jonah Goldberg is editor-at-large of National Review Online.
 
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Distinguish between years & ideas....
It is simple to just say years from first elected office but I would instead suggest that it is ideology/ideas which go stale, not candidates. And thus you can have a Fred Thomson who might have been around far longer than even Hillary but is only now expressing ideas on the national stage.

By the same token, a Mitt Romney may not have the years of tenure, but the ideas he is expressing are those he expressed in a lost race against Teddy Kennedy back in '94 and in other contexts before that.

Bob Dole lost in '96 not because he was experienced but because he was saying the same things he was saying back in '76 when he ran as Ford's VP. And the problem with the "rule of 14" is that it fails to account for those races in which a candidate didn't win, where he either was an actual candidate (Nixon 1960) or a potential candidate and didn't win.

Obama reminds me
... of those Japanese TV "mood" commercials in which you have no hope of predicting what the commercial is FOR, until a logo flashes on the screen in the final second, accompanied by a female voice in the chirpy tones of a greeter-girl at Takashimaya.

One of the closer US equivalents would be the "Skittles -- Taste the rainbow" commercials.

Romney is more like a financial services firm commercial, while Hillary is an obnoxious public service announcement, Fred Thompson is a beer commercial, and McCain reminds me of nothing so much as a Ditech plug. Giuliani? One of those BP commercials -- you know the ones. With the strange-looking "ordinary people" spouting public-spirited talking points and BP proclaiming itself to be in the forefront of their hyperarticulate concerns.

Someone out there is "Head On -- Apply directly to the forehead." I think we'll have to wait until this time next summer to be sure who it is.

Amazing the directions you mind goes this late at night.

During the last 50 years the elections
have distilled themselves into a close race between the party faithful and a few clueless moonbats who can never make up their mind what they want. Yes I know, there are a lot of people who say they are independents but the overwhelming majority of those usually vote for one particular party even if they are not "registered" with that party.

The party that gets their people down to the polls is the one who usually wins. Based on the last two elections I would have to say that they would have close if the Democrats had ran Foghorn Leghorn. Democrats will vote for anyone with a (D) after their name. Republicans will either vote for the (R) or stay at home. That is where the changes occur. If the Republican candidate is not popular with the base, even though he is better than an odious Dem candidate, a lot of Repubs will stay at home. This needs to change. The Party elite do not get the message when you stay at home.

Go down to vote. Vote 3rd party or write in but vote. If the Party elite see that a significant portion of the people voted for a "libertarian" (or other) then they may change the way they run the Party. After all, the one thing ALL Repubs have in common with the Dems is that they wish to be elected.

The only credible Republican candidate..
..should be scrutinized and taken seriously. Ron Paul is the only true conservative among the Republican candidates. Mr. Romney and Mr. Thompson's record/history proves that they have changed their positions on key issues. Mr. Giuliani is not a true Republican, and Mr. McCain has sold out more than once. Ron Paul's support is growing, yet many conservative Republicans ignore him, a man of honor and integrity. Could it be that the Republican party has so badly lost its way that they can no longer admire a man for his excellent record in Congress and his truthfulness? As a lifelong Republican, I am ashamed and embarrassed that my fellow Republicans are ignoring Ron Paul. If they continue on this road, the Republican party is finished. It's time to stop being afraid, to find the the courage the Republican party once had and stand up for integrity and support the only true statesman left.

McCain
McCain's attempt to pander to the Left is his current problem. The fact that he was/is so much in favor of the amnesty thing is clearly the reason he has fallen so dramatically in the polls.

What the Republicans need...
is a candidate that will re-connect with the hallmarks of Republicanism. Those being fiscal responsibility, limited federal government, strong national defense and traditional core values. Whenever Republicans apologize for being Republicans or try to represent themselves as being something else is when they lose elections. In the present crop of Republican presidential candidates, the only two candidates that fit that bill are Ron Paul and Sam Brownback. Bothe of these candidate scare the pants off the RNC. The rest are RINOs at best.

Trapper Frank
Brownback as a Republican presidential nominee? Surely you jest - you probably weren't watching his performance on the Bush-McCain-Kennedy Illegal Alien bill.
Let me review his votes. First on Tuesday, he voted (along with several other RINOs) to resurrect this disasterous piece of crap for debate. That was bad enough.
Then on Thursday, voting for cloture, he was the second senator to vote yes for cloture. Then, about 10 minutes later, when it was clear the monster was dead, he sneaked back in and changed his yes vote to no. He was the only senator who was cowardly enough to try and cover up his treasonous vote.
You can have him as a candidate if you want - but I would rather stick with your other choice of Ron Paul, or maybe Tom Tancredo, or Duncan Hunter.

Duncan Hunter
I guess every working pundit has a few "Drivel Moments" and this is one of Jonah's. The Republicans can retain the Presidential office by nominating Duncan Hunter. The rest are indigestible hairballs to the electorate. For twice times Goldberg's allotted foruteen years, Duncan Hunter has served as a true public servant. He is who he is, and needs no remolding of principle. He is the featured speaker at the National Young Republican Convention in Florida, and my bet is he will be the hit of the session, even as he was at the Conservative meeting earlier this year. The man is the complete package, intrepid and persistent. He has what it takes, and deserves our attention.

Duncan: To quote Clint Eastwood
from "Unforgiven": "Deserve's got nothing to do with it!" The American Electorate will elect as US President whatever person it deems will better preserve or advance its collective interests - period. While the American Electorate is not always right in its choice about who will preserve or advance its collective interests, when there is a definable difference between the candidates, the American Electorate usually does not screw up in choosing. Even though it's political instinct for candidates to end up looking like "Tweedle-Dee vs. Tweedle-Dum," electoral success more often goes to the one who maintains his or her own unique political philosophy throughout the election process. As an example, if W had caved to the Left in 2004, as his father did in 1992, then he too would have been a one-term president as was his father.

-Trentamj

Pirate...
There is no problem with the "Law of 14". You cite Nixon 1960, but the rule includes election to the vice-presidency, so you should instead be looking at Nixon 1952.

If any other candidate failed to win the presidency, then he is irrelevant to the calculation. For example, had Gore won in 2000, he would have broken the rule, having been first elected to the House in 1976 and elected to the vice-presidency in 1992. Perhaps then it might instead have been called the "Law of 16", but he didn't, so it isn't.

The "14" in the name may come from Reagan's having won the California governorship and Bush the Elder's election to the House, both in 1966, but I haven't read the original article, so I'm just presuming.

What's throwing me, though, is the quoted reference to "31 elected presidents". Of the 42 men (counting Cleveland only once) who have held the office so far, only nine have succeeded after the death or resignation of their predecessors. The elections of 1800, 1824, 1876, and 2000 were each in their own ways messy, sure, but they were still elections. So, who are the two who don't count?

John McCain
John McCain is the only candidate running for the nomination of his or her party for United States President.
I'll never vote for a Democrat, even if he or she is pro-life, and supports President Bush on the war against terrorism. I think it is safe to say that such a candidate doesn't exist.
So if McCain doesn't get the Republican nomination, I'll skip that category on the ballot and vote for local and state candidates running for office.
Senator McCain's stand on immigration is the only one that I will support. Those who voted to kill his immigration bill will never again get my vote. The Republican Party has lost one voter who has been voting for Republican Candidates since 1958, unless John McCain is nominated as the Republican candidate for President in the 2008 election.
Ruth Valdez
rekvaldez@msn.com

Ron Paul is Howard Dean writ large...

Seriously. Look at the fan base, both for Dean in '04 and Paul now. Look at each man, how far outside the spectrum of normalcy each is.

Ron Paul is this election's Howard Screaming Dean...

There's almost no doubt
that Clinton or Obama will get the Democratic nod for the Democrats.

For some of us reading TH, it's not an issue of voting for someone who can beat Hillary or Obama. It's an issue of voting for the person who most closely repesents our personal beliefs and values. This might be Paul or Brownback or Tancredo and it might mean a write in.

For others of us reading TH, it IS a matter of voting for someone who can beat Hillary or Obama. For those people, casting a vote for a Republican candidate will almost certainly mean a compromise on some beliefs and values, whether Rudy or Mitt or Fred is the candidate (and I think one of them will be).

I do think Jonah is a little too glib about this "expiration date" and "too much experience" business. Maybe folks who have hung around forever and ever like Chris Dodd do look a little bit stale. But when I see Obama with almost no experience touting change, change, change and not much else of substance, it frightens me. But regardless, one thing we know is that the Democrats are going to come in droves in 2008. It would be nice to have a team that could wallop them.

To Arby
I wouldn't be too sure about that. Remember the last time when screamin Dean had it all sewed up until someone decided he was unelectable.

Vic
Alas, I can only hope that Clinton and Obama would go the way of Dean. It would be one of my fondest dreams! Wouldn't it be extra E-Z to beat a candidate who spends $1,200 on a haircut and then runs a campaign about beating poverty? I might even be able to do that one myself!

Carter
Obama reminds me of Jimmy Carter in a way. A leftist smiley face, talking about hope, religion and a new way. He has about as much experience also.

The rule of 14 has some wisdom in it. We can not win if we offer more of the same. People are very tired of Bush 43. He just does not connect with independents and has ticked off the base.

Romney and Rudy have room to move away from Bush. Thompson was Sherpa for Roberts and lead the fight on the Libby pardon. I am not sure where Thompson makes a break with Bush that will resonate with the Independents.

To Arby
As I said in the earlier post, the Dems would vote for anything as long as it had a (D) after it's name. I think regardless of who they run it will be a close race. The Republicans could run Mother Teresa while the Dems ran Beelzebub and there would be only a 2 point difference in the race. Florida would be back to counting chads.

zeb
Top tier Republican candidates=indigestable hairballs=globalist swine willing to sell out our country to corporate interests (North American Union!).

I like Duncan Hunter too. The fundamental question every candidate must answer is where do they stand on the agenda of CFR. Will they defend our national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and work for the wellfare of American citizens.

The answer is no for ALL the top tier candidates Dem or Rep. Only second tier candidates are acceptable!!

Oh pa-lease! Are these ronpaul fanatics

dispatched from the ronpaul HQ to TH, much like the lunatic liberal trolls are dispathed from whatever cave they come from?

ronpaul is, without question, a Conservative! Okay. Let's not have that discussion anymore. ronpaul is a Conservative. ronpaul is a Conservative. ronpaul is a Conservative. ronpaul is a Conservative.

Okay, happy now? We all know that ronpaul is a Conservative!!!

But, ronpaul is also absolutely CLUELESS about the WOT, and no matter what the ronpaulists whine about, he ABSOLUTELY DID BLAME THE US FOR THE 9-11 ATTACK!

Let's put this denial thing to rest RIGHT NOW!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AD7dnFDdwu0
ronpaul said, AND I QUOTE...

"...they attacked us because we were over there, we've been bombing Iraq for ten years...."

Unless you're a flaming liberal, there is no way any Conservative Republican is going to vote for a "blame America" candidate!

And then there is that pesky ol' "ELECTABILITY" thing. In case you've lost track of the "ELECTABILITY" thing, that's the entire reason for the election... to WIN!

ronpaul is UNELECTABLE! hillybilly would make mincemeat out of ronpaul in about 10mins in the first debate (it might take obama about 15mins.)

So please, let's get on with serious election discussion/debate...and that does NOT include ronpaul.






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