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Friday, January 26, 2007
Jonah Goldberg :: Townhall.com Columnist
Fight Today or Occupy Forever
by Jonah Goldberg
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"As I look at Iraq, I recall the words of former general and soon-to-be-President Dwight Eisenhower during the dark days of the Korean War, which had fallen into a bloody stalemate. 'When comes the end?' ... And as soon as he became president, he brought the Korean War to an end." This was part of freshman Virginia Sen. Jim Webb's much ballyhooed stentorian Democratic response to President Bush's State of the Union address.

One wonders if the untold millions of North Koreans who've starved, bled and died since then would similarly applaud Eisenhower's courage and wisdom. For more than half a century, North Korea has been a prison-camp society beyond the imagining of George Orwell, where public executions for stealing food are familiar events. The man-made famine of the 1990s alone claimed the lives of up to 1 million people (hard data from Stalinist regimes are difficult to come by).

One also wonders: When are our troops going to come home? Technically, the Korean War isn't really over. We're merely enjoying a cease-fire - much like the one we had with Iraq in the 1990s.

While Webb favors a "formula that will in short order allow our combat forces to leave Iraq," our forces in South Korea have been there for nearly six decades. Something tells me the antiwar base of the Democratic Party doesn't have that sort of timetable in mind for Iraq.

So, except for the fact that the Korean War didn't end, our troops are still there, and the outcome has been the source of humanitarian and national security nightmares, Webb's salute to Eisenhower's statesmanship really strikes home.

In fairness, Webb is a thoughtful man who takes foreign affairs more seriously than most politicians. But his closest-weapon-to-hand style of attack against Bush does not reflect well on him or the Democratic Party that chose him to be its representative.

But it is revealing. Indeed, the Democratic Party's most honest moment Tuesday night came not in Webb's brusque words but in the Democrats' brusquer body language.

The president asserted that no one wants failure in Iraq. Understandably, the commander in chief wanted to avoid conceding how very real a possibility failure is, so he chose his rhetoric carefully. He spoke in the abstract about the bipartisan desire for victory and success.

And yet the Democrats for the most part sat on their hands, refusing to applaud, never mind rise in favor of such statements from a wartime president.

Then, when the president mentioned ending genocide in Darfur, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her party leaped to their feet.

Perhaps such applause is mere grace on the cheap. Democrats know they can count on their beloved United Nations to prevent serious intervention in Sudan's civil war. Or maybe the Democrats really want action in Darfur, even though that would put us smack dab in the middle of a civil war, which Jack Murtha, Joe Biden, and other war critics invoke as a classic blunder the way Vizzini referred to land wars in Southeast Asia in "The Princess Bride."

The 11th Commandment for liberals seems to be, "Thou shalt not intervene out of self-interest." Intervening in civil wars for humanitarian reasons is OK, but meddling for national security reasons is not. This would explain why liberals supported interventions in civil wars in Yugoslavia and Somalia but think being in one in Iraq is the height of folly. If only Truman had called the Korean civil war a humanitarian crisis, Ike might not have called the whole thing off.

None of this explains why Democrats are so eager to support continued U.S. fighting against the Taliban as part of NATO forces in Afghanistan, even though that puts us between two sides in what amounts to an Afghan civil war. But maybe Afghanistan is a humanitarian crisis too. Or maybe it's an excuse for Democrats to prove they are still tough as far as foreign policy. Or maybe Democrats simply think the war in Iraq is lost, while there's still hope in Afghanistan ... assuming there's a principle in there somewhere.

There seems to be only one hope for persuading the Democrats to support staying in Iraq. Let's just beat the rush and call Iraq a humanitarian crisis now. It surely is already. And if we leave prematurely, Iraq will undoubtedly give Darfur and Yugoslavia a run for their money as a humanitarian horror show. Why wait for calls to return to stop the bloodshed?

It's even possible that an Iraq left to fend for itself might become a national security threat on a par with nuclear-armed North Korea.

Not that national security should factor into it.

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Jonah Goldberg is editor-at-large of National Review Online.
 
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Fact:
If "we" win this war, the democrat party looks bad after not only opposing it from about day two, but also because they've said it's unwinnable and that it is "Bushs' war".

The DNC, with the help of several cowardly old GOPsters, is about to see to it that we lose this thing and Iraq spirals into a place where the blood flows in the streets at greater volumes than after America abandoned Vietnam.

George Bush is a nice man but he is not so strong as to stand up, effectively, to the kind of, knife in the back,streetfighting that these people are the masters of. I can almost guarantee you that he will,sooner or later, be seen giving one,many or eventually even all of these puss heads some sort of award with a glowing speech attached that'll make me want to puke my innards out 'til my boots are feetless.

This is going to make "The Killing Fields" look like rumperroom.

But give this a shot anyway - THE PLEDGE,SIGN IT

http://truthlaidbear.com/thenrscpledge/

Ask Iran to give peace a chance in ME

The damning, furious and fiery daunting utterance coming out from the Iranian against the presence of US forces in Middle East and other neighbours like Israel; shows that they lack basic substance to come up to fend them selves and their interests. Their casseroles seem empty and they only carry dry vases to rattle.

Like wise US is seen a visionless identity in the Middle East and has got nothing to give to the world at large as a proclaimed world leader; except they deliver, chaos and anarchy. They only leave the people, where ever they go, drenching in bloodshed and their society in disarray. US visionless hegemonic craze to secure instant results around Middle East has made them a desperate lot and they are out to exterminate any one on their way.

Mayhem and turmoil in Middle East will stay there; as long as there is no deterrence at its display on the other side, against US advances. So far US have been the conquerors of the depleted ruined lands of defenceless subjugated people only. Let Iran attain its nuclear deterrence to check, halt this onslaught.

This may also bring a change in Middle East scenario and may save lives of millions and they may also escape a planned destruction of masses at the hands of aggressors. Iran’s furious daunting and empty utterance will also die down and we may see peace in the lives of forsaken people of the Middle East.

After all; all the fruit bearing branches, when laden with ripe fruits are always seen bowed down…humbled.
---------------------------
Love for all, Hatred for none


Khokar
Are you nuts or what? The US has never been a conquering nation overseas. What nations have we conquered and done anything to besides give them their freedom? We're known for freeing people, not dominating them. Ask Japan or Germany. Ask Kuwait.
Let Iran have nukes? It really takes a brain-dead individual to suggest that. They wouldn't hold nukes as a deterrant. They'd immediately give them to terrorist groups to set off in Israel, the US, or other civilized (non-muslim) nations.

we cannot democratize the world.
There is some truth in the observation the left only favors war, placing our troops in jeopardy, when the goal is humanitarian, rather than our national interest.

And that is despicable. Placing our troops in harm's way ought to be done only when our national interest is threatened.

But, isn't the quest to democratize the mideast a humanitarian goal? Isn't that what this president constantly alludes to? Democratizing the mideast and Iraq?

So does Bush share this use of warfare for humanitarian goals with the dreaded left?

The president claims democratizing the mideast is in our national interest. But since oppression and lack of opportunity give rise to the radicalism the president wishes to prevent, why not democratize subsaharan Africa while we are at it?

Certainly its oppression and lack of opportunity is at least as severe as in the mideast.

My point is with the notion of democratizing the world in the first place. Our military should not be pawns in an experiment, no matter how noble, to bring the blessings of liberty to the world.

Let the peoples of the world sacrifice their own, and their resources, in bringing forth the blessings of liberty.

That is not an appropriate utilization and sacrifice of our national treasure and our military.

In the case of Iraq, no matter the reason for the invasion, whether humanitarian or self interest, we must not abandon it now.

We should eschew any notion of a democratic government in Iraq, and instead focus upon the type of an Iraq that would be in our national interest..which is simply a stable Iraq, or loose confederation of provinces, that does not export terror.

How soon we forget.
I remember when Ike took office,two years after we had been in "peace talks" with the North.As soon as he did,the rumor spread through diplomatic channels that Ike was looking for likely nuclear targets in the North.The "peace treaty"was signed a few days later.End of story.

Khokar: are you Ku-ku?
Talk about non-sensical gibberish.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and presume that English is your second language, as opposed to the idea that you really believe that Iran is interested in being a peace maker.

I would suspect that even the moonbats on this site wouldn't buy into that crock. Or would they?

As far as Bush alluding to humanitarian interests in Iraq: it wouldn't matter; the guy can't do ANYTHING the Dems would agree with or support. NOT ONE THING.

Look at Medicare Part D, for example: an enormous entitlement program, absolutely something a Democrat would love-love-love! Ted Kennedy's wet dream (oops, did I type that?) for crying out loud. And what did we hear from the Dems about that: blah blah blah too confusing blah blah blah not going to work blah blah blah profits for drug makers blah blah blah.

Except it's working exceptionally well. Do we hear about that?

Bush can't do anything to please the Dems.

Darfur and the Dems
The Democrats have boxed themselves in on Darfur. They can't really demand that we go in there, for all the reasons they say that we shouldn't have gone into Iraq. It would be an invasion, an act of cowboys, in pursuit of Empire, a unilateral act, and about nothing but oil.

Yet the UN cannot go in there, either, since China needs Sudan's oil and will never agree to any action from the UN.

So what does that leave? How about a mercenary force composed of the Dems? After all, leftists back in the 1930s went into Spain to help fight, so why shouldn't they be willing to go fight today?

Of course, as Mark Steyn has said, every leftist is for a free Tibet, but no leftist is for freeing Tibet, and the same thing can be said about them in connection with Darfur.

Jerabaub
Jerabaub writes:

"But since oppression and lack of opportunity give rise to the radicalism"

Let me see--as I recall, Osama Bin Laden and the 911 perpetrators were neither oppressed or suffered lack of opportunity.

The argument that poverty, oppression, lack of opportunity, etc, etc, is the cause of terrorism and radical Islam is liberal left BS. That notion has been clearly debunked.

Goldberg
takes Eisenhower (and implicitly Truman) to task for failing to liberate North Korea during that war.
Both presidents realized that fighting a ground war against the Chinese was a losing proposition, and to escalate it probably would've required a nuclear war with Russia.
As bad as we might feel for the N. Koreans, a nuclear war in their backyard would've been a lot worse than what followed.
Settling for a draw at the 38th parallel was about the best deal Ike could get.

joegirl
I agree completely.

But it is Bush himself who asserts that lack of opportunity and oppression give rise to the resentment among young muslim males which then makes them susceptible to islam radicalism.

That is why he is on this quest to "democratize" the mideast.

You might want to take this matter up with him, not me. I was simply explaining his rationale.

Thanks for the comment.

So you should direct your criticism toward

oops
My post should have ended with "Thanks for the comment".

joegirl
Don't misread jerabaub's comments as having a definitive cause and effect relationship, but recognize the correlation. Is a revolution not a form of radicalism? The American Revolution was rooted in oppression and lack of opportunity.

"Freeing" bigots & tribalists

Mr. Goldberg has a very good point about Korea signing a peace treaty only to consent to perpetual occupation. Koreans had an identity as a people but had been a political football between conquering enemies for hundreds of years, mainly rivals China and Japan. Imagine for a moment if Long Island was a separate country fought over for a thousand years by rival separate countries New York/New England vs. New Jersey/Pennsylvania. Pretty messy, eh?

The Korean War reached stalemate in 1953 as a compromise among the Soviet Union, China and the United States, all of whom used it as a football for their quasi-messianic views of the future. The U.S. could have achieved total victory at that time only by obliterating Chinese military power in the same way they had done to Japan a few years earlier. Did Americans really have the appetite for such a fight with a country ten times the population of Japan with land-based, internal supply lines?

It's too bad about Koreans starving to death, just as it's too bad about Darfurians being starved, raped and butchered. Korea is a festering carbuncle on China's nose and Sudanese oil goes mainly to China. In both cases little practical is feasible until the Chinese say so. Like it or not, it's the largest country in the world and it's on the rise. At least it's rising in a way that is less dangerous than a generation ago.

IMHO Eisenhower knew something about war, knew something about the likelihood of changing Asian cultures permanently and opted for a compromise which avoided the world of perpetual warfare & perpetual impoverishment that Orwell had in mind when he wrote 1984 shortly before he died on the brink of the Korean War. Thanks to Ike, we did get time to rebuild the West.

Suppose the U.S. had devoted all its resources to defeating China and changing that part of the world. Do you suppose the Marshall Plan could have succeeded in Europe? Or would we have "won" Korea and "lost" the entire Continent?

There are many people who would like to settle issues of autocracy vs. free enterprise, east vs. west, faith vs. atheism and so on "once and for all." Unfortunately, real leaders with responsibility on their hands cannot always indulge the fantasy that things are so easily settled. Compromise is sometimes necessary.

The problem the West faces in the Middle East is thorny, long-term and entangled with a matrix of cultures with whom we have little in common -- not the type of problem the U.S. is best at solving. Winning the war as defined by Bush -- establishing viable representative government in place of traditional autocracy -- is a noble goal; don't get me wrong. The Democrats' version of cut-and-run won't solve anything; it's just procrastination. The various Middle Eastern antagonists will have enough oil money to finance local and international butchery for generations even if the U.S. loaded up the troopships for home and stopped buying a single foreign barrel tomorrow.

The current U.S. foreign policy dilemma we face is that the U.S. went into Iraq thinking that total war of a WW II mode wouldn't be necessary. But what if it is? Tribal and sectarian rivalries and xenophobia there are deeply entrenched. Nobody knows how much treasure and how many troops it would really take to pacify the region. How many other American interests would have to take a back seat if a WW II sized effort is necessary?

Cooler heads -- not the fire eaters or the defeatists -- perhaps should think more about a feasible compromise.

For Crawfish and Paulie
I've observed "Khokhar" before on another TH discussion. The name itself, which derives from an ethnic group of the northwestern part of the Subcontinent (divided partly in democratic India and muslim-thugocratic Pakistan). I'll guess he's one of the latter, thence his support for Iran (also muslim thugocracy, but of the "other" sect).

The War in Iraq HAS been won
If you don't believe just ask Sadaam Hussein -- oh wait you can't cause he's DEAD.

Just because the war's won doesn't mean we can't take unacceptable casualties -- which we are.

The Democratic plan of redeployment makes more sense to me than what Bush is doing.

Jerubaab & Tomgee
Good comments. Jerubaab has been writing on this for months, as have I.
Essentially, it is a fools errand to think you can democratize another country by force, and that is still what the POTUS claims is our victory condition. Before anybody starts talking about Germany and Japan post WW II, I will point out that both countries were culturally and ethnically homogeneous, had civil institutions that were fairly free of corruption, highly educated populations and in the case of Germany...some ptior excersizes in democracy. Iraq has none of these things, and the previous experience of the British in attempting to build democratic institutions in the 1920's shows the long standing hatreds and vendettas that exsist. Notably, Britain gave up on democratizing Iraq (one of the politicians in Baghdad was dragged by a Shiite mob and run over repeatedly with a car) and installed a King.
We cpuld have learned from this, but our President's fatally misplaced idealism will not permit us to act in a realistic manner. I know some of you get tired of my refferences to Thomas Hobbes and the philosophy of pessimism, but it bears heavily on this situation.

"The finall Cause, End, or Designe of men(who naturally love Liberty, and Dominion over others,) in the introduction of that restraint upon themselves, (in which wee see them live in Commonwealths,) is the foresight of their own preservation, and of a more contented life thereby; that is to say, of getting themselves out from that miserable condition of Warre, which is necessarily consequent (as hath been shewn) to the natural Passions of men when there is no visible Power to keep them in awe, and tye them by fear of punishment to the performance of their Covenants, and observation of those Lawes of Nature set down in the fourteenth and fifteenth chapters.
For the Lawes of Nature (as Justice,Equity, Modesty, mercy, and (in summe) doing to others, as wee would be done to,) of themselvs, without the terrour of some Power, to cause them to be observed, are contrary to our naturall Passions, that carry us to Partiality, Pride, Revenge, and the like. And Covenants, without the Sword, are but words, and of no strength to secure a man at all."

There you have it. Unless they are MADE to be civil and adhere to societal norms of decent behavior, then men tend to revert to war, rapine and destruction. It sounds quite a bit like Baghdad on a daily basis, which is why so many commentators have described the situation as "Hobbesian". Without the terror of some power to keepm the locals in line, then this is what we will continue to see, and that is why this limited, temporary surge will fail. Iraq is so badly broken that it will take years of instilling civil institutions to make headwy. Notice that I do not say rebuilding, because this is an EVOLUTIONARY process instead of a rebuilding process. We are introducing something to Iraq that was never there.
In the meantime, our best hope for keeping a lid on the terror in Iraq would have been to install a "Hobbesian Despot"; that is, a military strongman who would have the power to force some measure of compliance while gradually improving living standards and economic development to where democracy and a full-access economy were feasible (which is how South Korea evolved from a military dictatorship to a democracy. It is a useful model)
Unfortunately, the POTUS skipped all the hard work in steps three to twent five, and went for the "happy ending" immediately. That is why we have failed.

Who cares about the North Koreans?
Not me, living in a Communist country is the penalty for liberalism, in most cases the population brought it on themselves, the "mob" voted for it-fine let them starve on the hill of communism.

Just look at Cuba & Venezuela, Democracies that voted for Communism in spite of history & reality-let them eat cake too.

If the people of the Middle East want to live in a Muslim Caliphate-let them, it's not my business, the best we can do is sell everybody a rifle copy of our Constitution.


Gregdn
Please!

We were winning the war on the Korean peninsula. We (UN forces) could have rolled the PVA (Chinese communists' so-called "volunteer army") all the way back to the Yalu.

It was Truman's reluctance to prosecute the war further than (generally) the 38th parallel. Truman justified his reluctance by claiming that Europe was not "ready" for a confrontation with the USSR and that pursuing an aggressive war in Korea would precipitate just such a confrontation.

Truman's premise was wrong, as we now know. The USSR was reluctant to confront the USA head-on, in Europe or elsewhere. The USSR used proxies to fight the US.

The USSR bent over backwards to insure they had no fingerprints on the beginning of the Korean War in June 1950. They knew that the US had used nukes only 5 years before against an almost-defeated Japan.

Truman's obedience to the UN and his hands-off management style regarding the war guarenteed we'd never win. The same criticism of the battle in Iraq today was voiced by the American public in the 1950's: if we are fighting a war, why aren't we fighting to win? I heard the same question in Vietnam in the 1960's.

Ike didn't "end" the war. An OPLAN regarding the use of nukes against the PRC was leaked and suddenly the communists became oh-so cooperative regarding the issues at the truce talks in Panmunjon.

The President of South Korea, Syngman Rhee, wanted to push the PVA out of North Korea and even threatened to continue the war alone if the UN sought "peace" instead of reunification. The US 8th Army (EUSAK) drew up plans (Plan Everready) to physically remove Rhee from office if his actions stopped the truce talks.

Rhee felt the US and the UN had betrayed him by not prosecuting the war with the aim of reunification.

al-Maliki must be having similar feelings today.

And South Korea
The loss of 50,000 Americans in defending South Korea was a waste of blood as well. Korea is not strategic. Ditto Vietnam.

Lynne
We have never occupied a country from the standpoint of controlling the government, true. The difference to an outside observer could very well be semantic. To parts of the world, the American presence in could be construed as an occupation, regardless of the fact that Iraq technically governs itself. This potential impression is important to understand viv a vis our credibility as a nation.

oops
in iraq ...

please
overlook my typos... vis a vis

Derek Leaberry
Obviously you can't read a bloody map!

Korea is a dagger aimed straight at the heart of Japan.

And despite periodic protests in the ROK, they at least do not consider it a 'waste'.

What can one expect from a product of US public education though...

I'm to F*&^ing angry to continue.

Consistently...
Democrats and liberals seldom get the history right, hence the blather from Webb.

Having said that, the difference between Iraq and Afghanistan is really simple!

Iraq has oil, oil is bad!
Afghanistn has heroin, heroin is good!


Lynne
You hardly think so...what? Make a case out of nothing? How so? I never mentioned Nansy Pelosi and any comments she made. I am not using her to build my case. You really don't think that it could SEEM like an occupation to anyone, anywhere? Don't you think America is worthy of the world's respect? Perceptions matter a great deal. Truth matters, but perceptions drive opinions more readily.

Self-interest or Self-destruction?
Report: Saudi FM warns against partitioning Iraq
AP, January 24, 2007

Saudia Arabia reportedly warned Washington late last year that it could provide financial aid to Iraqi Sunnis in any fighting against Shi'ites if the United States pulls its troops out of Iraq. The White House and a Saudi official denied the report. But private citizens in Saudi Arabia have already been funneling money to Sunni insurgents in Iraq.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1167467802420
&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Self-interest or Self-destruction? pt 2
It's not about Israel
by David A. Harris
The Jerusalem Post, December 30, 2006

Let's assume for a moment that Israel did not exist. Would that have changed the basic story line of the bulk of recent events in the Middle East?

Would Saudi Arabia have stopped exporting its Wahhabi model of Islam, with its narrow, doctrinaire view of the world and rejection of non-Muslims as so-called infidels, across the globe? Would al-Qaida not have attacked the US in 2001, when, it should be remembered, the Israeli-Palestinian issue was never even mentioned among Osama bin Laden's main "grievances"?

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1167467624547
&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Self-interest or Self-destruction? pt 3
No Sunni-Israeli alliance in the offing, says ex-CIA head
by Haviv Rettig
The Jerusalem Post, January 23, 2006

"I do not believe the current Sunni concern over the Shi'ite nuclear weapons program in Iran will lead to some sort of covert Saudi, Egyptian, American, Israeli modus vivendi to protect ourselves together against the Shi'a," former CIA director James Woolsey told the Herzliya Conference on Monday.

"The Wahhabis, al-Qaida, the Vilayat Faqih in Teheran, although often lethally competitive with one another in the way the Nazis and communists were in the 1930s, are capable of unification."

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1167467792991
&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

China and Korea
I am quite aware of the geography with regards to the Sea of Japan, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea, Mr. Dash. I am aware of history as well. And I know that the fall of China in 1949 to the communists, a nation state much abler to project power from its borders than Korea, did not lead to the fall of the United States. The fall of China did not even lead to the fall of Japan, Taiwan or even Quemoy or Matsu. Had Kim il-Sung ruled the whole Korean peninsula, it is doubtful whether his misrule would have expanded beyond Korea's borders.

From my many meetings with Korean people here in America, I have found them almost to a man to be rude, dour and joyless. Cultures tend to get the governments they want or deserve. The Korean people are not worth 50,000 American dead.

Mr Leaberry
Fine. We can agree to disagree then.

However, has it ocurred to you that perhaps it was BECAUSE we intervened in Korea that the march of Red China did not reach Japan? I'm not saying that it was, simply asking a question. Please consider that just because history went a certain way doesn't mean that it would have continued if the same events had not ocurred.

From your earlier post may I safely presume that all American lives lost in action since 1945 have been a waste????

twisting history again
"civilian institutions that were fairly free of corrouption" celtic dragons refernce to germany and Japan and how they were differnt and not to be used as a comparison to Iraq.

"we cannot democratize the world"
"his Quest to democratize Iraq."

The attempt to change what has already happened and is plain for all who would look is dumbfounding in its boldness.

What is most frightning about it is that this slick attempt to move the nation into another retreat from duty has been successful enough that we now have a majority of congress ready to
run.

Let me reiterate we did not go into Iraq to make it a Democracy we went into Iraq to enforce U.N. resolutions. and to remove a Threat to U.S. national security.public law 107-243 oct 16 2002 gives those two specific reasons and gave Bush the authority to determine when and how.In that law there are Specific examples as to how Saddams Iraq over at least a 10 year period continued to position his nation in non compliance to U.N. resolutions and a threat to This Nations(U.S.) security.

The democritzation came after the removal of the threat.It has been a practice of this nation throughout it's history and has been extremely effective in stabalizing not only the indvidual nation but entire regions. Anyone want to argue the stability of Europe compared to pre ww2?

I WILL compare Iraq to post ww2 it took us 7 years in both Germany and Japan to finally get both nations institutions of freedom strong enough to turn over official self governance. In the meantime we had to prosecute the korean war and the berlin airlift to further streagthen both countries.

Iraq is THE central battle and the FIRST of several to come in the war on TERROR or radical Islam. George Bush stated this before or soon after we went in and has never altered that stance.

Like Germany and Japan, Iraq can be one of two things to U.S. It will either be a dunkirk where we withdraw under fire from the region only to have to return with much greater force some time in the near future. Or Iraq will be a regional ally with which we will with relative minimal cost stop the onrush of the islamic jihaad.

With quotes like the ones stated in the begining of this post, I'll take Bush's explanation over Webb and his ilk any day.

oops
My agreement to disagree is over the value of 50000+ US servicemembers killed in action, not about the likely effects of Kim;s misrule. However, is it not just as possible that Mao could have used Korea as a stepping stone to attack Japan? After all, they had several million reasons to do so; as do the Koreans.

Naval doubts
Since 1945, only two nations have had any sort of ability to make a massive landing across an ocean or sea- the USA and the USSR. It seems to me that Mao's China did not have the ability to land a big force across a sea and probably would not have been able to blockade Japan, even a prostate Japan. I will grant that Mao and Kim, had the whole Korean peninsula gone red, would have interfered with Japan's burgeoning pro-western government whenever possible (eg. espionage, funding the Japanese Communist party). But American troops, ships and airplanes were stationed in Japan and would have acted as a deterrent force to any large-scale Chinese-Korean enterprise against Japan.

Saudi Arabia and al Qaeda
Algerian radicals change name to 'Al-Qaeda'
by Firouz Sedarat & Mark Trevelyan
Retuers, January 27, 2007

The move by the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) marked the latest attempt by militants to exploit al Qaeda's international "brand", following the establishment of regional branches in Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

"We had wished to do this from the first day we joined (al Qaeda) but we wanted the permission of Sheikh Osama, may God protect him. This obstacle has now been removed," said the statement, signed by the GSPC and dated Jan. 24.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21126126-23109,00.html

Saudi Arabia and al Qaeda - part 2
Guantanamo conditions said
by Suleiman al-Khalidi
Retuers, January 27, 2007

Many of the men held at Guantanamo Bay were captured in Afghanistan in the U.S.-led war to oust the Taliban in 2001 after the September 11 attacks. Many have been held for years and nearly all are being held without trial ... Saudi Arabia took back at least 60 of its nationals last year. Afghanistan had only 70 detainees after at least 140 inmates were handed over, most freed outright on their return.

http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=138662007

Naval pt 2
Oh, I agree with your naval analysis. And as I said, I can't disagree with your analysis of what HAS happened. My opinion is that action in Korea seems to have been worth it in the long run (at least so far).

Would the world have been better off with MacAurthur occupying the entire peninsula without Chinese intervention? Dunno, but that's one of those questions that are kinda fun to debate...

doug
You did a good job on that picture.

May I add?
General Lynch estimates at least 9 more years.
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPrint.asp?Page=/Culture/archive/200701/CUL20070111d.html
Newt thinks it will be longer.

With that many elections during wartime, what do you think a long war will do to a Party known to be weak on National Defense?

My opine
What do I think will happen to a party known to be weak on National Defense.....
If republicans and conservatives for the most part continue to dismiss charismatic leaders of the Democratic Party like so many pundits did of James Webb then I see not only a frustrating time for those that support our nations current efforts but catastrophic next decade or so for the U.S.
Again this war effort should be a slam dunk but I am totally shell shocked at how totaly bazaro world the national debate is. Not to belittle Pres. Bush,I think he is the lead in this effort for the next two years. But we have a Republican President talking as if conservation and cornfuel may help wean us from oil its like saying your gonna give me sodapop if I would just wean myself off air.


another aspect
I'd say celtic dragon got it right on why American efforts to democratize Japan and Germany in the late 1940's had a good chance of success. Iraq has been an unruly province of various conquerers for millennia, most recently the Ottoman Empire. Britain and France set it "free" in 1919 and washed its hands of the situation almost immediately -- not that they didn't want to, but that it was beyond their capabilities, considering their other colonial priorities.

Perhaps some of you commentators would like to dive in to enlighten me on another aspect of the Iraq War. I agree that there's no substitute for victory, but to score a victory, there has to be an identifiable enemy that can be defeated. Precisely who is "the enemy" in this case? The Sunnis? The Shiites? The ex-Baathists? The foreign infiltrators? The militias? Iran's proxies? Syria's? Saudi Arabia's? Or local death cults who will stop at nothing to sow chaos?

It appears that most of the violence is within the capital city -- which suggests a struggle to control the country, but might be an indication that the urban warrens are simply too extensive for anyone to control. Saddam Hussein didn't really "control" it either; mainly he kept the population cowed by relentless, arbitrary killings.

It's clear enough that fighting is going on but it's not clear that they're fighting against the U.S. as much as they're fighting each other -- with no disrespect at all towards the American soldiers there. On the contrary, I believe that our military understands its mission and has behaved with consistency and valor.

The Maliki government appears to be amenable to U.S. efforts to help them establish order, but the factions of disorder are numerous. I wouldn't even dignify the situation by likening it to a "civil war." Even civil wars usually have identifiable armies with predictable, territorial movements. This looks less to me like a civil war than a gang war among criminal chieftans or among tribes in an uncivilized area. Cops get shot trying to quell gangland violence, just as our American soldiers get killed trying to pacify Iraq. But the situation seems too primitive to characterize it as a "normal" war.

It could be that the U.S. in Iraq is engaged in a mission to herd cats. How can you inhibit fanatics whose preferred tactic is suicide bombing? Likewise, if a faction in Iraq chose to surrender, who would they surrender to?

Dash 42
I think your onto something about Korea being a stepping stone. About a week ago I read some of McArthers notes on his occupation In the fisrt 6 months of the occupation(for lack of a better word at this time) he said it was so quiet that it was determined that they could downsize the occupation forces to coincide with the general downsizing after ww2. What happen in the 1st half of 1946 is that they started to run into gangs of communist some of them Korean in the new gov. and society in gen.
On the broader view look at the difference of Japans influence in the region after ww2 as opposed to before.

tomgee
Who is the enemy? The enemy is anyone who takes up arms against the legitmitly elected gov. of Iraq and the coalition forces.
I think it is almost a distraction to put to much worry about whether your getting shot at by shiites, sunnis or what not. This is the mistake that was made in the past and is being sorted out right now.
The beauty of the democritization (U.S.)style is that your not setting up a sect or group you are setting up institutions of freedom. If you stay long enough that they firm up it will stick. The results can be the difference between 3000 dead in 4 years or 6000 dead in one day.
The perfect example of how to inhibit suicide bombers is the nation of Isreal.Although not the most republican type gov. it is a gov. of laws and they survive.....well beyound survive faily well.

doug
That corn ethonol fuel situation is a much worse mess than it looks on the surface.
Just what has been used has created a shortage of corn in Mexico, raised prices and caused hunger.

A little closer to topic;
This Illegal Mexican "Amnesty" thing would make citizens of millions of draft age men.
???????????????????????????????????????????????

Dunkel
You say, "We have never occupied a country from the standpoint of controlling the government, true. The difference to an outside observer could very well be semantic. To parts of the world, the American presence in could be construed as an occupation, regardless of the fact that Iraq technically governs itself."

That is of course true. It is just as true that people could think of it in the opposite way, as a liberating force. Our media naturally focuses on those foreigners who think as you think, while ignoring those who think the opposite. For example, check this out:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/worldhaveyoursay/2007/01/who_cares_what_people_say.html

Scroll down a little bit to the section on the U.S. and you will see two Nigerians who like what we are doing in the world.

Again with the pacified Ger. and Japan.
I just cannot let it rest that Germany's "civilian institutions were fairly free of coruption" Many of the Nuerumburg defendents were Civilian Judges who threw out Germanys tradition of law that they might be able to retain their status in the Nazi Gov. German Corporations were using gas camp prisoners for slave labor,and when they wore them out they were sent to die with the knowledge of their managers that they were going to be murdered

We removed more than 180,000 civilian government officer holders in Japan.

Even acccepting the premis that those two powers cannot be compared to Iraq becouse of the far more complex influences that involve Iraq (which I adamantly dont).

How do you account for The U.S. not putting as much time and effort into returning this complex nation back over to viable self rule when we spent 7 years with a "pacified" Germamy and Japan

myopine
Well there ya go lets have a amnesty draft for illegal alien.....excuse me undocumented workers, and then..........wait a minute do ya see the inteligence of President Bush???????

LAW OF THE DMZ
What the Korean War ended? If that's the case why did my father spend a year there when he was a teenager in the Army and why did I live there for a year in a place called the De-militarized Zone?

If Condi can't talk about Iraq, because she doesn't have kids... I don't want liberals talking about Korea and attempting to change history.

USING FREEDOM TO REMAIN FREE, evil d

Regarding Japan & Germany
In both cases they were reduced literally to rubble. They were defeated.

In Iraq, we didn't engage in total war to defeat the nation, but a limited actio to drive the Baathist from power.

Perhaps, it is easier to institute a democratic republic when all vestiges of the former political system are vanquished? Yes, I know we left the Japanese Emperor untouched, but if he hadn't signed on to the program, I suspect he would have become a causalty.

Tag these People for Who They Are
Radical Islamofacist Collaborators

good answers

Good answer, Doug, on who "the enemy" is. I still wonder, however, how to identify and fight them all, since "taking up arms" against the Iraqi government consists of tiny, scattered groups of suicide & car bombers planting explosives around a metropolis of 5 million people. It appears that armed militias both support and oppose the government, with overlapping factions within some groups.

Good example, too, of Israelis managing the challenge in their country. A big difference, however, seems to be that Israel is a relatively modern, unified country. Iraq appears to be riven by numerous retrograde factions. Military and police functions seem to overlap in a place where numerous indigenous factions want to sabotage infrastructures, blow up police stations, destroy mosques, etc.

A small number of determined nihilists can create chaos and despair. For example, a restaurant doesn't have to be completely overrun with rats to scare away the customers. Just one or two run across a crowded dining room and nobody's going to go there anymore. People are emotional, especially when mindless destruction is at stake. IMHO, the defeatist segment of the American public has started looking at Iraq as a restaurant infested with rats. They want to hang a "Do Not Enter" sign across the door and go home.

Do you have any guesstimates on how many troops (both U.S. and Iraqi) would be required to establish order? How the purposes of the various Iraqi factions might be assessed? How long it would take for Iraq to join the modern world? Whether enough Iraqis really want to?

John-of-Gilnockie:

Good point about the distinction between total defeat and occupation. One of the problems in Iraq seems related to the fact that the U.S. occupied it without first conquering it. Deposing a tyrant isn't the same thing as conquering a massed army. Iraq probably didn't need to be "conquered," since a large majority was happy to be rid of the tyrant and didn't object to U.S. military assistance in doing so. There was no need to wage "total war" since there wasn't Iraqi unity in resisting U.S. efforts -- the way there was in Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan.

The subsequent elections were successful, too; a U.S. initiative that seems to get little credit.

The thorniest problems have arisen since it's become clear that Iraqis don't seem to share post-Saddam, post-election unity, either. One of the requirements of successful elections is that the losing candidates not be sent before a firing squad, nor the winners be violently attacked by the losers in their new offices. Iraqis haven't caught on to this important principle. When might this happen?

I work in an industry where
there are alot of Koreans employed, so I often hear what they think.

Many of them believe we pulled out too soon and abandoned them.

I am trying to figure out why this "chicken's way out" of a difficult situation has become almost national policy.

Perhaps WWII and the prospect of nuclear war with the USSR made us back off all out conflict in these proxy wars of the 20th Century.

But today, our enemies do not yet have the capacity to fight us toe to toe in that arena. Oh maybe they have some dirty bombs, but nothing approaching Mutually Assured Destruction.

NOT YET

But if we keep acting in this pu$$ified manor, it will give our enemies time to continue emassing a nuclear arsinol.

Then future generation who survive the conflagration will look at us with the same distain that we now look at Neville Chamberlain.

Iraq can't work
Iraq can't work because it is a hodge podge country much like Yugoslavia was. It is made of of groups who detest each other and was only held together by a ruthless central government. Now that we have removed that glue that held it together it can never work as a single country. I might if one side won out over the other but that would end up much like it was before with a cruel rutheless government visiting cruelties on the ones out of power.

Tomgee
On the issue of troops I have no idea The President has given his estimate and I'll go with that.

About how long it will take to firm up Iraqs government I posted that it took 7 years for Germany and Japan, those were much more pacified then Iraq as many have pointed out before.

If this move in Iraq were done with the only threat coming from Saddams Government in the region I would be all for letting the Iraqis fight it out themselves.

Unfortunatly it was not. I dont believe we can pull out of Iraq and like in vietnam let that semi isolated region boil in turmoil for 30 years and then open up Mcdonalds and all is good.

The importance of the Middle East will not allow for it to be left to its own devices. I am sure that if we pull back in a few short years we will be going back.
Matt Dowd was quoted in a U.S.news
"What I don't understand is why the big three Gop candidates have all chosen to follow the Presidents approach rather than offer up their own alternative?"
Possibly because they knew Iraq is the key and if we are not successful now at what cost later.
I am sorry I am a little incoherent right now better answers later. Thank you for your interest.

Insidious
Tomgee nicely done you were brilliant the way you puffed me up making me think I was all good on my points and stuff

After reflection IN MY HUMBLE OPINION

I stand behind what I said in my Twisting history again post

The attempt to change what has already happened and is plain for all who would look is dumbfounding in its boldness.

AMERICA'S SPREAD OF LIBERTY AND JUSTICE through out the world is not "sophisticated or complex" yet it works every time its actualy tried

Lincoln, Reagan, and Bush are three simpletons of their times and I take them tomgee over the complexity of Wilson, Carter, or Clinton every time


Doug
You may be a c@ck-eyed idealist, but if its any consolation, you have me on your side. History has always been a contest between nations advancing the human condition, and the barbarians. Sometimes the progressives win, sometimes the barbarians. We have only so much blood and treasure and it must be expended wisely to have a hope. Germany and Japan worked. Korea only partially(a draw snatched from the jaws of victory), and VN was a defeat. The invasion of Iraq was probably premature. 9/11 did not galvanize the country as did Pearl Harbor. Democracies only fight when trapped and frightened. FDR and Clinton knew this. They were shrewd readers of the public. LBJ and the Bushes were not.

gently99
With all my c@ck-eyed idealism I thank.
I would love to debate the whole vietnam "defeat" someday I would of course need to study it more in depth but I dont think it was the overall defeat(I know we lost there but...) people would have me think it was(I base that premis on the loads af tweeked articles about the current conflict in Iraq)

reassessments

doug:

I don't have much time right now, but I'd like to thank you for the insightfulness of your posts on this thread. Just two thoughts, not quibbling, but only to provoke more contributions from you, if possible.

I feel that Carter was a "simpleton," too -- but a failed one, not a purposeful & effective, practical idealist like Lincoln & Reagan. Carter tries to be a nice man but was out of his depth as president. He was unable to prioritize or to make the hard, unpleasant decisions required by his powerful office. Carter's inaction in the face of an act of war -- the seizure of the American embassy in Teheran in 1979 -- set us on the road of provocation and taunting of the U.S. by Islamist fanatics, followed by the uneven responses of American leaders. Continuing to give Carter a pass on this monumental failure is a reason why America has not formulated a unified policy since then.

By contrast, Harry Truman's doctrine of Communist "containment" resulted in a bipartisan policy which succeeded after 42 years (roughly 1947 to 1989) in defeating that noxious ideology in Europe (for the most part.) One of Reagan's greatest achievements was to perform the coup de grace with little bloodshed.

I feel Bush is more Wilsonian in his complexity, as Truman was. Bush is not a good communicator and therefore hasn't been able to unify a policy for Islamist "containment." It's too early to see how things will turn out, but it's pretty clear that few Democrats besides Joe Lieberman have much to contribute.

My second thought is: It might be too early to tell if Vietnam was really the "disaster" that the American left insists it was. It could be that 100 years hence, history will view it as "losing the war, but winning the battle."
Vietnam was lost to communism at the time; that much is true. But the dominoes stopped falling after that -- except for some Carter administration setbacks in Central Asia and Central America, since reversed. I'm guessing that few people who opposed communism all their lives and died old in the mid 1980's foresaw the eventual success of their efforts.

China, which has always had its own way of doing things, is accustomed to autocracy, but is altering its nominally communist system in a reasonably favorable direction. Vietnam is making moves in the same direction. We'll see.

There are probably few people alive today who can picture how the struggle between the retrograde factions of Islam and the hated West will turn out 100 years from now.

tomgee
I must say conversing with you has not spun my head as fast as trying to make sense of msm bloggers.....must sleep now try answer later.

tomgee
What I meant by my previous post about head spinning was that merely trying to follow many peoples rendition of history has been...perplexing at best. Your's is at least as much as I understand, acceptable to the timeline .

Now back to the business at hand.

"Bush is not a good communicator and therefore hasn't been able to unify a policy for Islamist "containment".

I would at this point submit this statement. George Bush has not been able to unify a policy for Islamist "containment", in my opinion because of one reason.

George Bush has NO plan for islamist containment!

Here comes the simplicity of purpose part.

George Bushs plan is to KILL RADICAL ISLAM.


Why Iraq over Afghanistan? LOGISTICS
You have to have a sustainable base to go after Iran and Syria.

No containment of these radicals simply draw them out to a point of our choosing and destroy them.
If we succeed in Iraq it will become the richest most stable power in the mid.east. next to Isreal. Is that pie in the sky? not really before gulf 1 they were in the top position(militarily) in The Mid east(excluding Isreal). Is it easy? is buy low sell high?

I like your bit about Carter reasonable analysis.
On vietnam that was,...... I would not at this time be able to back up my claim but I think it gave reason for pause in any big projects the soviets had planed for that era, and I do think they had a lot more than a ride along with noriega(sp).
Also with Bush and communication. I think he is alright as presidents go I just think Reagan is about untouchable, and Clinton obviously among the best,no Reagan though(leastwise says me). How can you be average or maybe a little above and look good when probably 3/4 of the voters remember those two.?



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