Quite a few folks in the financial media (including me, I
confess) have been eyeing the rather peaky-looking state of
the stock market and pondering defensive moves.
Make sure you're really comfortable with your level of
risk, we say.
Look for value. Buy dividends.
That's all good advice. But every time I write one of
those articles, I hear from Fools who say something like,
"Worrying about the state of the market sounds too much like
market timing for me. I want stocks I can hold for a long
time that will make me wealthy."
So here's what I've been pondering: Can you get wealthy --
reallywealthy -- by holding stocks for a long
time?
Really
long-term investments
Over the years, my career has brought me into contact
with a few wealthy families and their investment portfolios.
I'm talking about old-Yankee-money types, who trace their
current wealth to an industrious ancestor a century or more
ago, and who have had that wealth professionally managed --
for growth and for income -- for decades.
What's relevant to us is that these folks' family
portfolios tend to be built around the stocks people now see
as
rock-solid mature companies, such as
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM),
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), and at
least until recently,
General Electric (NYSE: GE). These are
companies with traditions of excellent management, and their
stocks, for the most part, have shown decent appreciation
over time while paying a good solid dividend.
I like stocks like that. I own a few myself. And it's easy
to look at a wealthy family's portfolio and think, "Hey,
they're rich and they own those stocks. If I buy stocks like
that, maybe I'll get rich too."
But is that
reallyhow one builds wealth?
"Warehousing" versus wealth-building
In his best-selling book
The Millionaire Mind, wealth researcher Thomas J.
Stanley notes a survey of millionaires that found that less
than half -- 42% -- indicated that "investing in the equities
of public corporations" was an important factor in explaining
their economic success. Stanley writes -- and this is
consistent with what I've heard elsewhere -- that many
millionaires think of the stock market as a great place to
"warehouse" wealth built elsewhere,
but not as a wealth generator in and of itself.
I think that's both right and wrong.
On the one hand, if you're simply shooting for
market-average returns, the math doesn't lie: $10,000
invested at 10% for 20 years turns into $67,275. That's a
nice return on savings, but it's not huge wealth.
And when I look at
the stockssome of my fellow Fools think of as "hold
forever" stocks nowadays, whether newer firms like
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) or
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) or older companies like
Johnson & Johnson and
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), I see great
establishedcompanies. Companies that might well beat
that market average of 10% over time by a considerable
margin.
Those are desirable stocks to own. I own a few like that,
too. But they're not going to build big wealth anytime soon.
Without a time machine, you're not going to get rich holding
stocks like Apple.
Risk and wealth-building go hand in hand
Despite their lukewarm feelings about stock investing
overall, 74% of Stanley's millionaires did say that a
"willingness to take financial risk given the right return"
was an important factor in their success. Many others talked
about the importance of being willing to invest in their own
businesses, and of other values related to
entrepreneurship.
Entrepreneurship is a potent source of wealth -- maybe
thebest source. Of course, not all of us are
entrepreneurs. But we can all
investin entrepreneurs. Putting $10,000 in
Amazon.com stock might net you a nice solid return over time.
But if you had put that $10,000 in Amazon on the day it went
public in 1997, it'd be worth more than
$480,000now, just 12 years later -- despite the
dot-com crash and despite last year's market drama. Continued... |