"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair
price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
If you can grasp this simple advice from Warren Buffett,
you should do well as an investor. Sure, there are other
investment strategies out there, but Buffett's approach is
both easy to follow and demonstrably successful over more
than 50 years. Why try anything else?
Two words for the efficient market hypothesis: Warren
Buffett
An interesting academic study illustrates Buffett's
amazing investment genius. From 1980 to 2003, the stock
portfolio of
Berkshire Hathaway beat the S&P 500 index
in 20 out of 24 years. During that period, Berkshire's
average annual return from its stock portfolio outperformed
the index by 12 percentage points. The efficient market
theory predicts that this is impossible, but the theory is
clearly wrong in this case.
Buffett has delivered these outstanding returns by buying
undervalued shares in great companies such as Gillette, now
owned by
Procter & Gamble . Over the years,
Berkshire has owned household names such as
Coca Cola (NYSE: KO),
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), and
The Washington Post .
Although not every pick worked out, for the most part
Buffett and Berkshire have made a mint. Indeed, Buffett's
investment in Gillette increased threefold during the 1990s.
Who'd have guessed you could get such stratospheric returns
from razors?
The devil is in the details
So buying great companies at reasonable prices can
deliver solid returns for long-term investors. The challenge,
of course, is identifying great companies and determining
what constitutes a reasonable price.
Buffett recommends that investors look for companies that
deliver outstanding returns on capital and produce
substantial cash profits. He also suggests that you look for
companies with a huge economic moat to protect
them from competitors. You can identify companies
with moats by looking for strong brands that stand alongside
consistent or improving profit margins and returns on
capital.
How do you determine the right buy price for shares in
such companies? Buffett advises that you wait patiently for
opportunities to purchase stocks at a significant discount to
their intrinsic values -- as calculated by taking the present
value of all future cash flows. Ultimately, he believes that
"value will in time always be reflected in market price."
When the market finally recognizes the true worth of your
undervalued shares, you begin to earn solid returns.
Do-it-yourself outperformance
Before they can capture Buffett-like returns,
beginning investors will need to develop their skills in
identifying profitable companies and determining intrinsic
values. In the meantime, consider looking for stock ideas
among Berkshire's own holdings.
The investing world is still abuzz over Berkshire's $44
billion acquisition of
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI).
Buffett has been bullish on railroads for years now --
Berkshire also owns stakes in
Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) and
Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) -- but this latest
purchase has really upped the ante.
It's easy to see why Berkshire likes this type of company.
Although operating a railroad requires loads of capital,
these companies enjoy a permanent geographic barrier that
protects them against new entrants -- the exact sort of
economic moat Buffett's always searching for.
In addition, if you believe that oil prices are headed
higher (and Buffett's bet on
ConocoPhillips suggests that he does) or
international trade is bound to increase, then owning a
railroad is a smart way to profit from these trends.
Unfortunately, it appears the stock market has already
figured this out, as railroad shares have surged in the
aftermath of Buffett's announcement. But that doesn't mean we
can't apply Buffett's wisdom elsewhere.
Another company that enjoys significant geographic
advantages is
Waste Management (NYSE: WM), the nation's
largest trash hauler. As the owner of America's largest
network of landfills, Waste Management enjoys steady demand
for its services and strong pricing power. This enables the
company to post impressive free cash flow, no matter how bad
the recession gets. Continued... |