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Tuesday, September 11, 2007
John R. Thomson :: Townhall.com Columnist
Rapid Reaction: Free Trade in the Balance
by John R. Thomson
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As Congress debates the merits of ratifying free-trade agreements with four countries, many arguments have been advanced from both sides. The politically charged climate on Capitol Hill obscures the underlying rationales favoring the treaties—and, broadly, free trade.

Agreements have been negotiated with Colombia, Panama, Peru and South Korea, each geopolitically and commercially important to the United States.

  • Colombia is our closest friend in Latin America. Washington has worked to strengthen U.S.-Colombian ties and to assist Bogotá in eradicating its narcotics production and stabilizing its democracy. Venezuela's autocratic socialist President Hugo Chávez presents an enormous external challenge.
  • Panama, created by a U.S.-Colombian treaty in 1903 as an independent entity to construct a Pacific-Atlantic canal, enjoys significant growth and is planning a major expansion of the critical waterway. China sought to become a major factor in the country before the United States ceded control of the canal to Panama in 1999. Hong Kong's Hutchison-Whampoa group has since operated the canal, so crucial to world trade.
  • Peru is one of three major centers of cocaine production in South America, with Bolivia and Colombia. President Alan García, elected in 2006, has committed his second term to free-market, democratic policies, in sharp contrast to his 1985–1990 first presidential term, which was characterized by a radical socialist agenda. García has also pledged to cooperate with Washington to replace cocaine production with economically viable, legal agricultural activities.
  • South Korea is a linchpin of free-market democratic stability in the Pacific basin, together with Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and the somewhat problematic Malaysia. Its precarious position near North Korea and China makes South Korea strategically important to regional peace and stability.

Each of these nations plays a key role, respectively in Latin America and east Asia, for the region as a whole and for the United States.

In The Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith considered free trade a great boon to the participating nations' economies, workers and consumers. Charles Rangel (D-NY), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, frequently opines that free trade is especially beneficial to unemployed workers in developing countries. Both assessments are correct, as we have witnessed in virtually every free-trade agreement (FTA) enacted by recent administrations.

Most recently, the U.S.-Uruguay FTA changed Montevideo's political orientation from sympathy towards Hugo Chávez's populist, socialist Bolivarian Revolution to solid friendship with the United States, re-committed to the market economy. The Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) with four Central American nations and the Dominican Republic, also concluded during the current Bush Administration, has stabilized their economic and political climates.

Perhaps most important, the NAFTA agreement among the United States, Canada and Mexico, enacted during the Clinton Administration, has seen significant stabilization of all three signatory countries' economies and of Mexico's unpredictable political situation.

Two observations illustrate NAFTA's enormous positive impact. During the twelve years the agreement has been in force, the U.S. economy has added thirty million jobs and unemployment has steadily declined to the current five percent level—despite AFL-CIO fears to the contrary. While this did not happen solely because of the trilateral accord, economists generally agree that NAFTA has been a significant contributor.

Several Mexican analysts credit domestic economic improvements created by NAFTA with the victory of Felipe Calderón in last year's presidential election. Calderón won despite being a member of the same political party as the disappointing outgoing president Vicente Fox, defeating ultra-leftist Andrés López Obrador by less than 234,000 out of 41.6 million votes cast, a razor-thin margin of 0.56 percent.

President Calderón has further opened Mexico's economy, and is aggressively fighting endemic corruption by replacing thousands of corrupt police and sacking hundreds of conniving government officials. Calderón is also helping the United States' illegal immigration dilemma by deploying 20,000 army regulars to the border area. These troops are fighting the extremely powerful narcotics organizations who refine and ship 90 percent of the cocaine that enters the United States.

Uruguay and Mexico exemplify a critical benefit of free-trade agreements, well-understood by America's enemies: Fair and balanced economic relations set the stage for close relations at all levels.

Opposition in Bogotá to the pending U.S.-Colombia free-trade agreement comes virtually exclusively from the Left, particularly from those in open or covert alliance with Venezuela's Hugo Chávez. Opposition to what Colombians call the TLC (for tratado de libre comercio, free-trade agreement) is based solely on critics' not wanting Colombia to have close economic, military, political or cultural relations with the United States.

Chávez's allies in Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua show no interest in being part of what Chávez refers to as the Bush “empire.” They have been co-opted into close political—and anti-American—relations by the checkbook diplomacy of Venezuela's president. (In just the last two years, Venezuela has loaned Argentina's tottering government at least $6 billion.) Two of the four pending FTAs are with Colombia and Peru, major cocaine-producing countries. The agreements, along with existing governmental programs, will create hundreds of thousands of jobs, a large majority of which will allow farmers who cultivate coca to desist from doing so. General Freddy Padilla de Leon, commandant of Colombia's armed forces, observes:

Growing cocaine allows the farmer to buy his family rice, meat and other necessities. But our farmers don't want that. To work cleanly and legally gives a man peace; to work illegally puts the [communist narco-trafficking guerrilla movement] FARC in control of his life. We must fight the narcotics scourge at every level, but especially the agricultural sector. With solid economic growth, small farmers can enter the legal economy, which will decimate the cocaine crop and sharply cut the FARC's income options.

Plan Colombia, instituted by the Clinton Administration, has for eight years trained and upgraded Colombian military and police forces, established job training programs for demobilized guerrillas and paramilitaries, and trained local government officials in effective community administration.

The U.S.-Colombia FTA, coupled with the extension of Plan Colombia, can deal a lethal blow to the Colombian drug trade and strengthen democratic forces prior to critical 2010 presidential elections.

Hugo Chávez is reportedly plotting with Colombia's far left Polo Democrático Party to elect a radical socialist successor to President Álvaro Uribe, who was resoundingly re-elected in 2006. They plan to focus on some two million Colombians living in Venezuela—most of them illegally—offering permanent resident status, jobs and stipends in return for voting the Chávez-anointed presidential ticket. This, and Chávez's commitment of five or ten billion dollars or more behind the chosen candidate, threatens to halt Colombia's steady progress under Uribe's leadership. Continued...

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About The Author

Geopolitical analyst John R. Thomson has lived and worked in Arab and other Muslim countries for four decades.

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Cars & Money are a store of labor
Let me suggest that a car or a dollar represents labor that has been expended. Trade always involves the transaction of labor regardless of what species it is delivered in, be it cars, dollars, diamonds, corn etc.

There is no such thing as a trade deficit, it being an oxymoron. If there was such there would be no trade, the one party refusing to be harmed. When you buy something from China you deliver your already expended labor stored in dollars and they deliver their stored labor in goods. There is no trade imbalance, no different than when you give similar dollars to your grocer you don’t panic because of a trade imbalance the grocer and you never intend to rectify. “Trade deficit” should be better called the physical goods timing deficit. Such timing with China is no more evil than when the elderly fail to convert all the money markets, saving accounts and pension plans into physical goods.

Labor and the environment of China are none of our business, but they never the less will be improved as an economy becomes stronger and can afford the cost of such. The Chinese farmer making 10 cents and hour who now works for a factory at 20 cents an hour is not a race to the bottom because it is less than $7.25 but rather a sustainable welcomed gain, labor unions claims to the contrary notwithstanding.

Finally free trade and cocaine really are unrelated. Clearly we have a slight degree of free trade in the US compared to the world and it hasn’t seemed to change the cocaine production in the US.

Free trade in our world is non-existent. All trade is politically managed. Therefore we have degrees of restricted trade.


the real facts about free trade
As an economist myself I’ve always supported free trade. However, after reading Beyond Growth by Herman Daly I’ve come to see that some of the arguments that are currently used to support free trade are flawed. I’ll present some of those here, but for people that really care I suggest reading the book.

1. Goods are supposed to move not capital. IE if country A trades electronics to country B for it’s cars that’s fine. But when the capital leaves country A and country B makes both cars and electronics you no longer have trade you just have importation.

2. We cannot permit a race to the bottom on environmental and labor policies. Pollution knows no borders.

Yes free trade can still be good, but the way we are currently pursuing it is not. Finally free trade will have no effect on cocaine production. Do you really think a farmer that is producing cocaine which has a final street price of $4000 or so will switch to producing coffee with a street price of $10 a pound. Instead our war on drugs just ensures that producing drugs is pretty much the most profitable thing that they can do.
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