John McCain is having a very tough time uniting conservatives and the political winds seem to be at the Democrats' backs; so many people seem to think that Barack Obama will win in a walk in November. However, that's probably not going to be the case.

In a normal year, where the public was more closely divided between the Dems and the GOP, McCain would be capable of wiping out a candidate as weak as Obama in a landslide of Dukakis-esque proportions. With that in mind, even in a year like this, where Obama has a huge advantage, chances are that if he wins, he'll have to pull it off by coming in on the right side of a 2000/2004 style squeaker of an election.

Here's a short but sweet primer that will help explain why that's the case:

Howard Dean 2.0

Although the mainstream media is working hard to cover for him, Obama is the most gaffe prone candidate to run for the Presidency on the Democratic side since Howard Dean. Some of his greatest hits include:

"You got into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

"You know, the truth is that right after 9/11, I had a (flag) pin. Shortly after 9/11, particularly because as we're talking about the Iraq war, that became a substitute for, I think, true patriotism, which is speaking out on issues that are of importance to our national security, I decided I won't wear that pin on my chest..."

"Over the last 15 months, we've traveled to every corner of the United States. I've now been in 57 states? I think one left to go."

Remember all the flack poor Dan Quayle caught for his "potato" snafu? Well, Barack Obama makes Dan Quayle look like Einstein.

Obama's Entourage

Whether you're talking about slum lord Tony Rezko, unrepentant terrorists William Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn, Barack's anti-white "sounding board" and pastor Jeremiah Wright, or his chief strategist, lobbyist David Axelrod, Obama has an offputting cast of characters around him -- and that's not even counting his wife, "Teresa Heinz" Obama, who's almost as gaffe prone as her husband.

He's Not Qualified To Be President

In a post-911 world, where the next President is going to be handling the war on terrorism, trying to prevent another 9/11, and dealing with a whole host of critical domestic issues, there is absolutely nothing in Barack Obama's background that indicates he's up to the job.

Given the situation, are the American people going to choose a young, mistake-prone, extremely inexperienced senator with a history of hard drug use and a knack for making basic geography errors -- over a 72 year old POW with more than 20 years worth of experience in Congress? Whatever you may think of McCain, even a lot of liberals would probably be willing to admit in private that they'd rather have him taking that 3 AM phone call after a major terrorist attack than Obama.

The Demographics Disaster

Hillary Clinton has beaten Barack Obama in key swing states like Florida, Michigan, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. The latest polling numbers from Gallup seem to be indicating that voters in those states still haven't warmed up to Barry,

In the 20 states where Hillary Clinton has claimed victory in the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus elections (winning the popular vote), she has led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks of Gallup Poll Daily tracking by 50% to 43%. In those same states, Barack Obama is about tied with McCain among national registered voters, 45% to 46%.

This is largely because Obama is being carried to victory in the Democratic primary by black voters, young voters, and upscale liberal voters, all of which are groups that the Democratic candidate will carry in November anyway. Meanwhile, Hillary is looking considerably stronger with white women, older Americans, and Hispanic votes -- exactly the sort of swing voters that will decide the election. Continued...