Simple: Because he got in the race too late.

Initially, it may have seemed like a smart move to wait to jump in because Fred's poll numbers kept going up. But eventually, expectations became so sky high that no one could have lived up to them. So, when Fred got in the race, he was almost destined to disappoint people -- and he did. Fred and his campaign took about a month to get their sea legs, but unlike the other campaigns that had their growing pains at the start of the year when no one was paying attention, the Thompson campaign was under the microscope and being examined by people who were practically expecting him to be Reagan reincarnated. Meanwhile, many of the people in the conservative press savaged Fred mercilessly because they had already picked out a candidate to back before he ever got in the race and so they never saw him as anything other than an impediment to "their guy's" chances of winning. Today, Thompson's campaign is well run, he's working as hard as the other top tier candidates, he has proven to be an excellent debater, and he's still probably the only top tier candidate who has the potential to give the majority of Republicans someone they'd like to vote for, as opposed to someone they'd only vote for out of fear of a Hillary Clinton presidency. However, despite all that, he still has yet to get out from under the shadow of the negative first impression that was left with people when he first entered the race.

Mitt Romney: At first glance, Mitt, who has become the de facto Republican establishment pick since McCain tanked, looks like a good candidate. He has charisma, he looks presidential, he has a solid business background, he's run a great campaign, he can raise money, and he doesn't seem to have a lot of baggage. He also says all the things that conservatives want to hear about illegal immigration, spending, and foreign policy.

However, he has three major league problems.

The first, which has been discussed ad nauseum during the campaign, is his religion. It turns out that roughly 18% to 24% of the population already says that they won't vote for a Mormon and that number is likely to increase if Mitt gets the nomination as the mainstream media spends a whole year trying to convince the American public that Mormons are weird, racist polygamists, who all wear magic underwear and are looking forward to increasing their numbers exponentially once one of their own becomes President. If you winced reading that or thought it was unfair, just imagine what it would be like seeing it for a year straight on the evening news and in your local paper if Mitt gets the nomination.

The second problem Mitt has is that he's a flip-flopper (Is it my imagination or didn't our party spend 2004 beating up on John Kerry for that?) who shifted his positions markedly to the right in an effort to make himself more palatable to the sort of rock ribbed conservatives who tend to vote in the GOP primaries. The reality is that the Mitt Romney who is running today does not hold the same positions as the Mitt Romney from a few years ago and if he won the nomination, the Mitt Romney who runs in the general election is probably not going to hold the same positions as the Mitt Romney you're hearing from today. In other words, Mitt isn't telling people what he believes, he's telling people what they want to hear, and that means if the polls change, his views will probably change as well if he thinks it's to his advantage.

For example, Mitt used to be pro-abortion, pro-illegal immigration, and ran to Ted Kennedy's left on "gay rights" issues. Now, he's anti-abortion, breathing fire on illegal immigration, and an ardent opponent of gay marriage. So, what positions would he hold if he wins the presidency? Since he doesn't seem to have many core beliefs, you almost have to think he'd simply follow the most politically expedient path.

Both of the two previous problems have led to Mitt's biggest problem, one which seldom seems to be discussed: he probably cannot beat Hillary Clinton in a general election. His head-to-head numbers against her in the states have been and remain terrible. Whether you like Mitt or not, having him as our nominee would be horribly depressing because it would likely mean that not only would we lose the presidency, we would spend all of 2008 knowing that we were going to lose. It would be like the 1996 campaign all over again with Mitt playing the part of Bob Dole, the guy who is way behind and generates no enthusiasm from the base, going up against a hated foe of conservatives that he isn't capable of defeating.