Here's a brutally honest (Oh boy, am I going to get a lot of angry emails) breakdown of all five of the top tier contenders (Full disclosure: I was a consultant for the Duncan Hunter campaign and he's still my favorite candidate).
John McCain: Johnny Mac is a fiscal conservative, has a lot of experience, particularly on foreign policy, has a strong pro-life voting record, and he polls very well. This is a man who can win over independent voters and therefore, is capable of beating Hillary Clinton.
However, the New York Times’ favorite Republican has made a career out of breaking conservative hearts on everything from campaign finance reform to immigration, to taxes, to judges, to enhanced interrogation techniques. It's a pattern that has been repeated again and again. A huge issue for conservatives comes up and then McCain leads a group of squishy Republicans who very publicly side with the Democrats. In return, McCain gets to bask in waves of positive attention from the mainstream media, which lauds him as a straight-talking maverick in return for his betrayal of conservative principles.
That's why John McCain is loathed by so many grassroots conservatives and it's why he would be extremely frustrating to conservatives if he made it into the White House. Moreover, it's entirely possible that his excellent polling numbers which are based on the great press he receives, would evaporate along with all his positive coverage once he became the GOP nominee -- instead of the Republican in the Senate most likely to side with Democrats. So, even his solid poll numbers that appear to show he’s electable are far from a sure thing.
Mike Huckabee: Despite what some people are claiming, Huckabee would be a fun guy to run against Hillary. That's not just because he would drive the Christian-hating netroots crazy, but because you just have to think that a former pastor who's the most charismatic, likable candidate in the race, would almost have to do well against the cold, corrupt, wicked witch of New York. Trust me; if it all boiled down to Huckabee and Hillary, no one would have a hard time trying to figure out an answer to the classic, "Which candidate would you most like to go to a ballgame with," question. Heck, even Bill would probably choose Huckabee if he thought his wife wouldn't find out about it.
On the other hand, although Huckabee is rock solid on social conservative issues, balanced the budget in Arkansas, and has abandoned his pro-amnesty stance for a great new plan to deal with illegal immigration, he comes across as a big government Republican, an enemy of free trade, a tax hiker, a nannystater, and more than a little bit of a ditz on foreign policy issues. In other words, if after two terms of George Bush, you're sick and tired of hearing the words "compassionate conservatism," this is not the guy for you.
Moreover, his biggest strength also may be his biggest weakness. Huckabee is a former pastor and sometimes, when you listen to him, you start to wonder if has taken a little bit too much of the mentality of his former profession into his current one. Just to name a couple of examples, he seems to have been far too lenient with illegal aliens and criminals when he was governor of Arkansas. Put another way, I really like my pastor, but I'm not sure he'd be hard enough to deal with Iran, Al-Qaeda, or illegal aliens. I have those very same doubts about Mike Huckabee.
Rudy Giuliani: As you've no doubt heard from the man himself if you've watched any of the debates, Rudy has a great record of fiscal conservatism and did a phenomenal job of dealing with crime when he was Mayor of New York. He's also charismatic and has gotten a lot of credit, deservedly so, for his great leadership in the aftermath of 9/11.
However, if Rudy had been anywhere other than ultra-liberal New York, given his positions on the issues, he probably would have been a blue dog Democrat instead of a Republican. Rudy is not a conservative and he would not make conservatives happy if he actually got in the White House. That's true of conservatives in general and doubly true of social conservatives, who would undoubtedly stay home by the millions rather than vote for a pro-abortion candidate who has had multiple affairs and associates with the shadiest cast of characters this side of the Clintons.
That brings us to what's supposed to be Rudy's greatest strength: his electability. While you might think that a moderate, generally well liked New York Republican would put all sorts of blue states into play, the head-to-head polling that has been done so far doesn't bear that out. At the moment, Rudy isn't beating Hillary Clinton in a single state that George Bush didn't win in 2004. Moreover, it's John McCain, not Rudy, who has consistently had the best head-to-head numbers nationally against the Democrats. Since Giuliani isn't a conservative, if you take away the electability angle, what's left that makes him worth voting for?
Fred Thompson: "The Fred" is a peculiar case. He is a consistent, movement conservative whose views match up better with those of the base than any of the other top tier candidates. He's a fiscal conservative, a federalist, a man with a perfect pro-life voting record, and all the right positions on illegal immigration. He is also, by far, the most popular candidate with conservatives online, quick on his feet, has a good sense of humor, comes across as presidential, and more than any other Republican running, he has put out serious, detailed policy plans. Judging by that, you'd think he'd be dominating the field. So, why isn't he?
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