History's greatest investor,Â
Warren Buffett, has two simple rules.
A big, sarcastic thank you,
Warren! Â
Sure, practically everyone has lost money in this
market -- including Buffett. But take it easy on the Oracle
here, because he's dead-on. Buffett's intense focus on not
just investing in great opportunities butÂ
avoiding terrible ones has been the key
to epic success.
Avoiding soul-sucking investments -- what we investing
nerds dub "value traps" -- is hardly rocket science. Yet,
incredibly, I see investors new and salty alike make the same
mistakes over and over again, breaking Buffett's rules and
walking right into what seem like obvious value traps.
Having spent way too much time thinking about it, I've
concluded that there are five primary categories of these
dreaded mistakes. Avoiding these five traps will save you
time, money, and more than a little heartache.
1. The quarter-life crisis Â
These are real heartbreakers. You find a dominant
company whose once sky-high growth has stalled, and its
shares along with it. "TechWidget Corp. is trading at only 15
times earnings right now, only half its five-year average!"
you say. "Its earnings have doubled over the past five years,
but the shares areÂ
down over the same time period. Sounds
like a steal!"
Snap! You just walked into a value trap.
Investors falsely believe that names likeÂ
eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY)Â will see their
relative valuations return to their headier days. They won't.
Why? For starters, growth has slowed, technology evolved, and
competition emerged. But all of that misses theÂ
real reason.
Instead of returning incremental profits to shareholders
via dividends, such companies wreck shareholder value by
chasing growth through non-core expansion and high-profile
acquisitions. Oh, and the ill-timed share repurchases that
exist primarily to juice per-share earnings and help sop up
all that stock option-driven dilution.
Steer clear of flailing tech titans until they're ready,
willing, and able to follow the lead of a
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) or an
Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL)Â into
dividend-paying adulthood.
2. The soaring cyclical Â
Here's the rub about cyclical stocks: Their P/E ratios
are counterintuitive. They always look the cheapest when
they've reached their priciest, and look priciest when
they've reached their cheapest.
Take nearly any oil play from the summer of 2008 as an
example.Â
Transocean (NYSE: RIG) looked cheap via a
crude,Â
PEG-style valuation. But savvy investors know that
cyclical companies' profits mean-revert, which is why
cyclical stocks' P/E multiples stay low during booms and high
during busts. In other words, you should be looking at
cyclical stocks as their P/Es expand, not shrink.
3. The small-cap Methuselah Â
The six-year small-cap bull run that came crashing to a
halt last year was a painful reminder of a little-known value
trap: the small-cap Methuselah.
Century-old small caps you'd never heard of were wrapping
up five-year runs of 20% annualized earnings growth. Analysts
went gaga, extrapolating those growth rates forward like the
party would never end. Valuations followed suit.
Gaga analyst, meet mean-reversion.
You won't find many long-run compounding machines in the
small-cap space. Show me a company with a long, proven
history of creating serious shareholder value, and I'll show
you a mid- or large-cap stock.
4. The too-high yielder Â
A company usually has a high yield (think above 7%) for
one of three reasons:
Broadly speaking, a fat dividend is a good thing. There's
a fine line, though. AtÂ
Motley Fool Income Investor
, we're looking for that sweet spot where an attractive
payout meets rest-easy status.
Take one of my
Income Investor
 recommendations,
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG). The shares
were yielding near a multidecade high back when I recommended
them in February.
P&G's portfolio of global brands -- Gillette, Tide,
Charmin, Pampers, etc. -- funnel through a vast, unmatched
distribution network, making for fat, rich, and growing
profits. The shares were all but a screaming buy at the time,
though they've since risen more than 23%. Of course, I still
own the 2.9%-yielding shares myself.
5. The unopened book Â
Book values need to be adjusted -- especially heading
into and during recessions. Acquisition-happy companies
inevitably end up slashing the goodwill they'd booked while
making bloated acquisitions in the years previous.
The book values of asset-centric plays (homebuilders,
natural resource producers, etc.) also need a good tweaking
to reflect the depressed values of those assets. And
financials, well, what can I say? Just ask any
Citigroup  (NYSE: C) orÂ
AIG Â (NYSE:Â AIG)Â investor
about the ease of assessing their balance sheets.
Don't get me wrong: I'mÂ
all for buying stocks when they're down
and out. We do just that at
Income Investor
. But there's a catch: We're only interested in good
values if they also happen to be great businesses, companies
with years of exceptional performance behindÂ
and ahead of them. And, of course, ones
that pay us to wait for our thesis to play out. Continued... |