History's greatest investor,
Warren Buffett, has two simple rules.
A big, sarcastic thank you, Warren!
Sure, practically everyone has lost money in this
market -- including Buffett. But take it easy on the Oracle
here, because he's dead-on. Buffett's intense focus on not
just investing in great opportunities but
avoiding terrible oneshas been the key to epic
success.
Avoiding soul-sucking investments -- what we investing
nerds dub "value traps" -- is hardly rocket science. Yet,
incredibly, I see investors new and salty alike make the same
mistakes over and over again, breaking Buffett's rules and
walking right into what seem like obvious value traps.
Having spent way too much time thinking about it, I've
concluded that there are five primary categories of these
dreaded mistakes. Avoiding these five traps will save you
time, money, and more than a little heartache.
1. The quarter-life crisis
These are real heartbreakers. You find a dominant
company whose once sky-high growth has stalled, and its
shares along with it. "TechWidget Corp. is trading at only 15
times earnings right now, only half its five-year average!"
you say. "Its earnings have doubled over the past five years,
but the shares are
downover the same time period. Sounds like a
steal!"
Snap! You just walked into a value trap.
Investors falsely believe that names like
Yahoo! will see their relative valuations
return to their headier days. They won't. Why? For starters,
growth has slowed, technology evolved, and competition
emerged. But all of that misses the
realreason.
Instead of returning incremental profits to shareholders
via dividends, such companies wreck shareholder value by
chasing growth through non-core expansion and high-profile
acquisitions. Oh, and the ill-timed share repurchases that
exist primarily to juice per-share earnings and help sop up
all that stock option-driven dilution.
Steer clear of flailing tech titans until they're ready,
willing, and able to follow the lead of an
IBM or
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) into dividend-paying
adulthood.
2. The soaring cyclical
Here's the rub about cyclical stocks: Their P/E ratios
are counterintuitive. They always look the cheapest when
they've reached their priciest, and look priciest when
they've reached their cheapest.
Take nearly any shipper from last summer as an example.
Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX),
Frontline (NYSE: FRO),
DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), and
Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT) all looked
cheap via crude,
PEG-style valuations. But savvy investors know that
cyclical companies' profits mean-revert, which is why
cyclical stocks' P/E multiples stay low during booms and high
during busts. In other words, you should be looking at
cyclical stocks as their P/Es expand, not shrink.
3. The small-cap Methuselah
The six-year small-cap bull run that came crashing to a
halt last year was a painful reminder of a little-known value
trap: the Small-Cap Methuselah.
Century-old small caps you'd never heard of were wrapping
up five-year runs of 20% annualized earnings growth. Analysts
went gaga, extrapolating those growth rates forward like the
party would never end. Valuations followed suit.
Gaga analyst, meet mean-reversion.
You won't find many long-run compounding machines within
the small-cap space. Show me a company with a long, proven
history of creating serious shareholder value, and I'll show
you a mid- or large-cap stock.
4. The too-high yielder
A company usually has a high yield (think above 7%) for
one of three reasons:
Broadly speaking, a fat dividend is a good thing. There's
a fine line, though. At
Motley Fool Income Investor
, we're looking for that sweet spot where an attractive
payout meets rest-easy status.
Take one
Income Investor
Buy First recommendation, beverage giant and snack-food
kingpin
PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP). The mothership of Pepsi
and Gatorade may lag industry leader
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) on the beverage front,
but it absolutely dominates the U.S. salty-snack business on
the backs of Lay's, Fritos, Cheetos, Tostitos, and, of
course, Doritos.
PepsiCo's global brands, vast distribution network, and
consistent profitability make for incredible barriers to
entry, which means you can bank on these guys still printing
coin via corn chips and sugar water years, if not decades,
from now.
As a salty kicker on what should be solid long-run capital
appreciation, the shares currently offer a CD-edging payout
of 3%. That's awful low-hanging fruit for the income-loving
investor, and the stock rates among the top six that the
Income Investor
team recommends picking up right now.
5. The unopened book
Book values need to be adjusted -- especially heading
into and during recessions. Acquisition-happy companies
inevitably end up slashing the goodwill they'd booked while
making bloated acquisitions in the years previous. The book
values of asset-centric plays (homebuilders, natural resource
producers, etc.) also need a good tweaking to reflect the
depressed values of those assets.
Don't get me wrong: I'm
all forbuying stocks when they're down and out. We
do just that at
Income Investor
. But there's a catch: We're only interested in good
values if they also happen to be great businesses, companies
with years of exceptional performance behind
andahead of them. And, of course, ones that pay us
to wait for our thesis to play out. Continued... |