"It's the world's greatest company, period."
 -- Arjun Murti, Goldman Sachs analyst
I'm what a lot of folks would call "obsessed" with finding
great stocks. So when I heard
Goldman Sachs oil oracle Arjun Murti boldly
label a company as the world's greatest, you'd best believe I
paid attention.
That's pretty high praise, but the facts speak for
themselves. In fact, my research led me to take Murti's claim
one step further: This is the greatest company
in the history of the world.
The corporate titan in question produced modern-day
history's greatest fortune, and earned triple the combined
2008 profits of
Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) and
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ). If you'd
invested $1,000 in this company in 1950, your shares would
now be worth about $2.4 million. And incredibly, this giant
still has decades of slick profits ahead of it.
The greatest
Meet the world's greatest company:
ExxonMobil . Biggest, strongest, most
efficient, most evil -- there's hardly a superlative that
hasn't been applied to this most successful of the Standard
Oil grandchildren. But while much is made of just how great
or how evil folks peg Exxon to be, there's strangely little
discussion over the core drivers of
whyits stock has been a huge success.
It would be easy to say that Exxon's success, and that of
Standard Oil's lineage --
Chevron ,
ConocoPhillips , etc. -- was just a function
of being in the right place at the right time. Hawking oil
and gasoline at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, after
all, is a Category 5 tailwind.
But there's much more to Exxon's success. Fortunately, we
can also spot those discernible traits in other
opportunities.
1. An owner-operator culture
John Rockefeller didn't run an infamously efficient
organization just for kicks. As the largest shareholder, he
had a vested interest in the success of Standard Oil. When
managers and employees are shareholders alongside you, they
share your desire to manage the business for the long
term.
Take a look at the cutthroat world of big-box retail,
where smart growth and a fanatical focus on controlling costs
are crucial to long-term success. Which companies in this
space have ranked among the biggest winners for investors
over the past 20 years?
Costco and
Wal-Mart . Both are known as much for their
insider ownership as for their tenacious zeal for efficiency
and maximum value.
By the way, there's still plenty of alignment between
Exxon's leadership and outside shareholders. The company
consistently posts better margins and returns on capital than
its Big Oil brethren. CEO and Chairman Rex Tillerson has
plenty of incentive to keep it that way; he owns 1.1
millionExxon shares -- close to $80 million
worth.
2. Enduring demand
Demand for oil is strikingly consistent. For most
companies, steady demand equates to steady cash generation.
But for Exxon, the
consistencyof demand for oil is just as important as
the
durationof that demand. Constant doubts about the
staying power of oil have helped keep Exxon's shares
perpetually undervalued, allowing management and dividend
reinvestors to steadily gobble up shares at attractive prices
while the company continues to outpace expectations.
For another case study in the importance of demand,
consider
Procter & Gamble , which I recently
recommended to
Income Investor
members. P&G's core products (razor blades, toilet
paper, disposable diapers, etc.) all face little chance of
technological obsolescence. Better yet, demand is regular and
firmly entrenched. Maybe I'm just a pretty boy, but I'd be
living in my car before I stopped buying razors.
Now consider companies whose fates hinge on innovation,
such as
VMware (NYSE: VMW),
Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT), or
Check Point (Nasdaq: CHKP). As any longtime
Palm (Nasdaq: PALM) or
Novell (Nasdaq: NOVL) investor can attest,
staying on top in a cutting-edge industry is exceedingly
difficult.
Again, historical results say it all here. According to
dividend guru
Jeremy Siegel, among the highest-returning S&P 500
stocks from 1957 to 2003 were:
Kraft Foods
R.J. Reynolds Tobacco (now owned by
Reynolds American )
Standard Oil of New Jersey (ExxonMobil)
Coca-Cola
Cheese. Tobacco. Oil. Coke. I think you get the
picture. Continued... |