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Monday, November 05, 2007
Jerry Bowyer :: Townhall.com Columnist
Jobs Report in Plain English
by Jerry Bowyer
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Will Congress pass Obamacare by the end of the year?

The economy added 166,000 jobs last month. Is that a lot, or a little? If the economy added jobs, why did the unemployment rate stay the same – shouldn’t it have gone down? Are these new employees mostly burger flippers? Is it true that when people lose their unemployment benefits, they’re no longer counted as unemployed? Have a lot of people gotten discouraged and given up looking for work? What kind of people are most likely to find work?

I do a lot of interviews on radio call-in shows. The most common phone call goes something like this: “Why isn’t there something out there that explains what’s going on in the economy in clear English?” To the many talk radio callers, cameramen who’ve helped me do satellite hook-ups with TV shows, and waiters who’ve approached me to follow-up on one of my speeches, I say: This column’s for you.

There are 146 million of us working here in America. That number has never been higher. Compared to that there are only 7 million people unemployed. Rough 79 million people are not in the labor force at all. This includes people who are underage, retired, disabled, ne’er do well scions of great fortunes, and people who have simply given up looking for work. The last group is officially referred to as ‘discouraged workers’. At 320,000 people, it is an infinitesimally small proportion of the total labor pool – less than third of a percent. Contrary to widespread assertions in the blogosphere (and the editorial page of the New York Times), it has not been rising. In fact, over the past 4 years, people have been rushing into the job market, not out of it.

Economists generally consider any unemployment rate under 5% to be ‘full employment’, which means that even when things are great, there’s still a delay between the time people leave one job and take another. The current unemployment rate is 4.7%. This rate is very low, but not as low as during the tech boom of the late 1990s. However, the jobs of that era were far more likely to be paid for by investors who were waiting for a company to show its first profit, than now, where the jobs growth is associated with high profits.

The reason that the unemployment rate sometimes stays the same (or even goes down) even when jobs increase, is that the two numbers are based on different surveys. The 166,000 jobs number is based on something called ‘the establishment survey’, which polls existing companies to measure their payroll growth. The unemployment rate is based on something called ‘the household survey’ which (not surprisingly) polls individual households. The household survey counts self-employed people; the establishment survey does not. Real estate agents, for instance, along with many small business owners, are not generally counted by the establishment survey. The unemployment rate counts people who are not working, but are looking for work, whether they’re on unemployment compensation or not. Not many people are unemployed long enough to lose benefits anyway. The largest group of unemployed is the group that’s out of work for 5 weeks or less. In fact over 2/3s of these folks are unemployed for less than 4 months.

The average worker is making $17.58 per hour, which is up by almost 4% from a year ago, so we’re not exactly a nation of burger boys, but the growth in wages could be a little higher. If you want to have a life filled with gainful employment, pretty much the best thing you can do is not drop out of school. As the chart above shows, as of last month, high school drop-outs had an unemployment rate of 7.3%, those who finish college, on the other hand, have an unemployment rate of 2.1%. Even for those who can’t afford college, high school is free, and community college is extremely affordable. Do both and you cut your chance of unemployment in half.

Any honest look at October’s jobs report offers no real support to people who claim that the US doesn’t offer an open opportunity to people who are willing to make an effort.

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About The Author

Jerry Bowyer is a radio and television talk show host.

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To "beowulfe" and "wiseone"
John Williams a "conspiracy kook"? How in the world do you people come up with this garbage?

Just two things. First, when he states that unemployment is 2-3% than the actual stated rate, he is saying that if you go back to 1961 (the beginning of the Kennedy Administration) and calculate unemployment today according to the criteria used to calculate unemployment back then, yes, it will be 2-3% higher. All Williams does is point this fact out. What is "kooky" about that?

The CPI has definitely been a moving target over the past 40 years. The "basket of commodities" upon which the CPI is determined HAS been changed several times over that period. Keeping the same baseline of 25 years ago to today will show you that the figure is higher than actually stated. (And the exclusion of food and energy is always a joke. How many people do you know who do not use food or energy? "Volatility" of their prices as a basis for exclusion is meaningless, since you always have to pay their prices, regardless of how "volatile" they are.)

Beowulfe, if you want to split hairs, then let's talk about income, which everyone claims on a tax return. Again, if you examine incomes over the past 15 years, I think you will definitely find a greater rate increase of the top 20% compared to the lower 20%. And this is understandable, since the rich have more ready access to multiple capital markets than your average burger flipper does.

I would classify myself as a Goldwater/Reagan/Paul conservative regarding fiscal matters, so you can put the "liberal" slander to rest. If you put Dubya in the category of those men above, then you must have been asleep the past 6 years.

WISEONE
UMMM!YOU have said a lot,so as I was taught in Elementary School,I will start with the latter.The government is the reason why the Dollar has FALLEN.FALLEN so far, that even MODELS don't want to be paid in dollars.So LOW, that it has reached a point, never before experienced (76).If you were at the (FED),you would need earplugs,to drown out the fear.WHY? Because what happens ,if there is no FLOOR for the Dollar? But, let me get back to GOVERNMENT,Iraq,you remember HER,is costing 1/2 Trillion a month.Where is this money coming from? "US" future;yours,mine,and our children,maybe even their CHILDREN.Mr. Bush is "US" President,and the last time I checked,he made the decision to ATTACK IRAQ!I will not discuss the OBVIOUS!So,if you are going to say, that liberals are ALWAYS ignoring the GOOD of the Republicans.Let us stop giving them so much to "FOCUS ON"!Also, I hate to tell you this,but some of "US",don't care about the economy.WHY?Because our problems far exceed anything, that the Economy can do.I could talk to you about hydraulic pressure,that is building in the economy, due to the rate of "US" money growth.I could, take you inside of those employment numbers and show you somethings, that you could never see,like the double-edged sword they conceal.But,I like your positive approach.Just keep your hands in your POCKETS!!!In order to restore the Dollar,"US" must,not shall,raise interest rates.But "US" economy is so "FRAGILE",that shock would cause serious damage."US" are living day to day,even those of "US", who have MONEY!!Stay POSITIVE,but get REAL... `
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