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Friday, May 25, 2007
Jerry Bowyer :: Townhall.com Columnist
Captain Cooked: A doom-and-gloom financial pundit rebels against reality
by Jerry Bowyer
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John Browne is a columnist and editor for the financial section of NewsMax.com, which pushes hard on the themes of doom, gloom, and depression (the economic kind). For a long time Browne has been warning readers about the destruction of the dollar and out-of-control inflation. This week, Larry Kudlow, on his CNBC show Kudlow & Co., called Browne on all this pessimism: Where’s the inflation? Larry asked. It’s not in the CPI, which is low. It’s not in interest rates, which also are low. Stocks certainly don’t seem to be worried about a coming financial Armageddon. So what gives?

Browne’s answer was that the numbers in the consumer price index are “cooked,” as in, they’re not reliable. The CPI says 2.6 percent price inflation, but John Browne says it just ain’t so.

Interesting approach: Formulate a theory. Use it to make a prediction. And when the prediction fails to come true, blame the numbers.

Most economists who’ve looked closely at the CPI say the measure actually overstates inflation. But be that as it may, what about all the other inflation stats? Is core CPI cooked? Are the producer price index (PPI), the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator, the implicit price deflator, and the chain-weighted CPI all cooked? How about the massive, several-trillion-dollar bond market? Is it dead wrong, too?

Maybe the simpler explanation is this: Supply-side tax cuts, deregulation, and increased international trade have encouraged growth and competition, which together have kept prices down.

In other words, the Bernanke/Bush boom has a little steam left in it yet.

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About The Author

Jerry Bowyer is a radio and television talk show host.

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Newsmax
These guys provide great political and general news as one never will get from the "main stream". But, just as I delete much of their health stuff, ( mainly because its redundant ), so, I ignore their FIR and all economic endeavors. I also get the Motley Fool, and don't read it nearly as much as I once did. Its nice to occasionally catch a headline that picques my interest, but inane to read anything as Gospel, ( except, of course, the "Gospel" ).
You want real economic news, read the Journal, you want conservative political news, read Newsmax, maybe the Washington Times or the NYPost, ( or a handful of other papers ), and watch FOX. If you want liberal views, go anywhere else.

Newsmax was not conceived as a bastion of the economic or health news industries, they are just some areas they try to serve. The organization will survive on its strengths, despite its weaknesses. Perhaps it will succeed in developing them, but for now, they generate revenue, which is their sole purpose.

Economics & Market Pundits
Unfortunately the market pundits don't really predict market movement, they try to cause it. Whether they are part of the pump-and-dump artistry endemic in the market, or they just profit through the fear syndrome, much like the weather reporters and forecasters - they serve no good purpose in the market place.

Trust no one. Read as much as you can from the established economics educators, e.g. Tom Sowell, do your own research and invest for the long term. If you listen to people like John Browne, Cramer, CNBC and the like, and stampede into reaction buying and selling, you will have no one to blame but yourself.
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