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Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Jack Kemp :: Townhall.com Columnist
The 25-year bull market
by Jack Kemp
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The great "existentialist philosopher" Yogi Berra once famously said, "history is just one damn thing after another." Of course the antithesis of Yogi was George Santayana, an equally famous philosopher who said wisely, "those who neglect the mistakes of the past, are doomed to repeat them." As I write these words in the dog days of August, with all the bad news of the subprime mortgage market, liquidity crunch and a fluctuating stock market, it's important to keep things in perspective and heed the words of Santayana, not Berra.

In other words, we should turn to history and its empirical evidence, and not give in to irrational decisions based on fatalism and the neglect of real history.

One such historical fact to remember is that the past 25 years have been the best stock market for investors in U.S. history. As the widely respected New York Times financial journalist Floyd Norris wrote, (and blogged) recently, the Dow Jones industrial average hit bottom on Aug. 12, 1982, at 776.9, while interest rates were at 15 percent.

Since that date, the compounded rate of return from the last quarter of 1982 until this summer, circa 2007, has been 11.8 percent. Taking into account inflation, the rate of return has been 8.5 percent. Norris pointed out this quarter of a century is the best ever in U.S. history.

This remarkable achievement didn't just happen, it was the result of policy decisions in the 1980s, 90s and more recently - confirming the fact that lower tax rates on capital and labor, sound monetary policies, with open market initiatives and liberalized trade leads to stronger economic growth and rising values in equities.

We neglect these lessons at our peril.

As economist Art Laffer pointed out recently, "if these pro-growth policies that have led to our 25-year bull market are reversed, don't be surprised if our financial gains and competitive edge quickly disappear."

Make no mistake dear readers, listening and watching the presidential candidates in the Democratic Party debate over the economy, I believe they are all headed in the direction of higher tax rates, and protectionist trade policies. Have they all forgotten John F. Kennedy in the early 1960s and indeed Bill Clinton in the 1990s? Where, oh where is the pro-growth, pro-trade, pro-internationalist wing of the Democratic Party? Except for Joe Lieberman, they apparently no longer exist.

Some history for all of us, 25 years ago, there was a mighty revival of classical economics led by two young economists named Robert Mundell of Columbia University and the aforementioned Art Laffer then a professor at USC.

They posited that the only answer to the Keynesian dilemma of simultaneous inflation coupled with recession was to restore sound money and sharply reduced marginal tax rates on both capital and labor. In other words, a hardened dollar, combined with lower taxes, reduced regulation and liberal trade policies would spur economic growth and jobs while combating inflation.

Theses two economists, took me, a GOP Congressional backbencher from Buffalo, N.Y., and turned me from a rather orthodox conservative in the Eisenhower wing of the Party, into a radical tax rate cutter and classical liberal on trade and globalization.

Candidate for President Ronald Reagan in 1980 turned out to be the one (and only) candidate among Republicans who fully (and firmly) bought into this neo-classical school of supply side economics because he'd been educated at Eureka College in the late 1920s at the height of the teachings of the 18th century Adam Smith and David Ricardo.

Most people forget that when Ronald Reagan took office the top tax rate was 70 percent and the capital gains rate was near 50 percent. The soft money policies of the Carter administration had left us with rising unemployment and inflation rate of 16 percent, (i.e. stagflation.) Trade was virtually shut down because of the mercantilist trade policies of "the left" in the U.S. and those of "the right" in Japan and "old Europe".

Despite several exogenous events from Y2K to 9/11, from Hurricane Katrina and the rising defense spending in the war on terror, the U.S. economy is the model for the world as more and more nations from Brazil and India to Russia, China, and Eastern Europe begin to emulate our entrepreneurial pro-growth economic ideas.

As I've said, August 1982 was the real beginning of the lower tax rate, lower interest rate and lower tariff policies that turned out 25 years later to have been the policy prescriptions that brought us this remarkable record. As I write this on Monday, the Dow is at 13,335 - not bad!

So to summarize Santayana, yes, we must learn from our mistakes, but equally important we must remember those decisions that from Reagan to Clinton to Bush have given the world a road map to prosperity.

We've come a long way and we've still got a long way to go in lifting more people out of poverty, creating more minority business owners and to further democratize our capitalistic system. So to both Democratic and Republican candidates for the presidency: let's hear a real debate about growth and prosperity and not redistribution of wealth and soaking the rich.

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About The Author
Jack Kemp is Founder and Chairman of Kemp Partners and a contributing columnist to Townhall.com.
 
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JACK; Happy Belated BIRTHDAY
I have always loved you JACK!But hey man put down the Republican play book!The American Stock Market had a better return to equity ratio in the 60's.When we include inflation as apart of our measure,the numbers are not even close.In 1974 ERISA came into existence,and caused most of the paralysis that we saw during the Carter Era.Wall Street had no idea as to how it should handle so much liquidity.Therefore, they were in no position to help President Carter with the Economy.Trying to interpret value was a formidable task in the 70's and would bring about huge swings,which disguised "RISK",ending in the recession of 1980-82.Finally,it was Donald Regan that was the "SUPPLY SIDER" in the Reagan administration,not your beloved Mr. Reagan.Jack "You Da Man",but DONALD REGAN is my "HERO".

Well done but...
there are a couple of minor flaws in this theory. Yes, we have enjoyed a fantastic economy (sorry, Reenie, but not all of us live in gated communites but more on you later). However, uncontrolled trade with other countries have lead to job losses for Americans (outsourcing) and tainted products (China!) entering our country.

I am not against fair trade as long as it is mutually beneficial. Sometimes it doesn't turn out that way. We must keep on the alert for unfair trade practices from other countries as some will and have attempted to undermine our economy.

Reduced taxes is always a good idea. Yes, it does allow for entreprenurial creativity which leads to job creations and flow of money. Redistributing hard earned money to many who haven't earned it is theft. Yep, that's the democratic party way. Socialization of our wealth will only lead to disaster. We'll go bankrupt very quickly.

Now, Reenie, if you are one of those Americans who is 'struggling', that is YOUR fault-not the government's. It is NOT the job of the government to provide you with a job or to provide a lifestyle for you out of the pockets of other Americans. And I suspect you aren't nearly as bad off as you'd like us to think you are since you have the luxury of access to a computer and the internet-a luxury many in this world, including this country, does not have. You think every one that lives in a nice house has never been in bad situations? You are 100% wrong! There was a time when I and my family were dirt poor. We had NOTHING! WE got ourselves out of that situation through hard work and good decisions. So, quit your whining. Obviously, you'd rather sponge off of society rather than earn your own way. Time to grow up, Reenie. You are NOT the center of the universe!

Thank you Mr. Kemp
We can count on you to present the case for fiscal soundness with clarity. I am very worried when I hear the campaign rehtoric, especially from Edwards, we are in for more taxes and more government.

It Never Fails
Mention the upward trend of The Stock Market and here comes a Liberal, Communist, Democrat, Crybaby.

WAA! Addicts and Alcoholics are living on the streets! WAA! I looked for a job 1 day last year and there aren’t any! WAA! Union Membership is down! WAA! WAA! WAA!

Spot on
Jack, you are spot on. Why the left refuses (consciously) to understand the clear logic that taxes hurt and that market freedom (de-regulation) wins is very frustrating. There must be some regulation, but it can be limited. History has proven over and over again it doesn't work. But we've now created this enormous group of people who can't take care of themselves, or worse, won't.

I highly recommed for all Amity Shlaes new book "The Forgotten Man", for a really insightful look at what modern liberal, left- leaning thinking and policies did to harm the recovery of the United States during the Depression. A fascinating and well-researched read.

For Reenie - During the Depression, ~3 out of every 10 people were jobless and in some areas much more. Today, it's 1 out of 20! And the redistribution party, among other things thought it wise to raise taxes, tariffs, and regulation during that time period. In addition, Shlaes notes more startling, in October 1929, right before the crash, it took until 1954 - 25 years! - for the DJIA to reach again it's 1929 level. The Presidency during the last 20 of those 25 years was in the hands of the Democrats - they taxed, they regulated, they socialized.

I believe the left knows all this. Like FDR realized politically, if you create dependent voting constituencies, they will continue to vote for you. It undermines everything good about us. It undermines initiative, self-esteem, and growth - not just monetary - but personal growth and development. "A dole is evil" should be re-enthroned in all our lives. And then governement get out of our lives and our way and allow the enormous creativity and initiative help lift all of us out of poverty and give all a better life.
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