"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others
are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most
certainly, fear is now widespread."
-- Warren Buffett, Oct. 16, 2008
It was a tough year for the world's richest man --
according to data from
Forbes, Warren Buffett's net worth declined in value
by a staggering $25 billion in 2008.
So let's not be too hard on ourselves if we, too, owned a
few stocks that lost substantial portions of their value last
year. Instead, let's pay close attention to what masters like
Buffett are doing on the heels of such a dismal market
year.
Let's cut to the chase
Buffett has been using the $44 billion cash hoard he
had at the end of 2007 to buy stocks ... in the midst of an
economic crisis.
Sure,
Buffett may be insane, but as the world's richest man,
his record speaks for itself. So when he wrote in that
October
New York Timeseditorial that he's buying now because
it is likely that "the market will move higher, perhaps
substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy
turns up," Fools would do well to take heed.
These opportunities
What opportunities might the Oracle see today?
According his most recent 10-K filing,
Buffett's interested in buying companies
at a fair price that have:
These criteria are designed to ensure that the stocks on
Buffett's watch list are large, well-run, and understandable,
and that they possess durable
moats-- sustainable competitive advantages that allow a
company to maintain high levels of profitability and growth
over long periods of time. Those are the rare companies that
you want to buy when they're cheap, then hold for a long time
as they continue to grow and prosper.
To try to identify the stocks that may be populating
Buffett's wish list, I built a screen based on these traits
using Capital IQ, an institutional software database. My
research turned up 47 stocks. Confirming that we're on the
right track, several of the companies that popped up --
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) are two
standouts -- are
alreadyowned by Buffett.
Here are three more candidates:
Company
7-Year Annual Earnings Growth
Return on Equity
CEO Tenure
Industry
Analyst Coverage
3M (NYSE: MMM)
6%
23%
4 Years
Conglomerates
21
Honeywell (NYSE: HON)
7%
23%
8 Years
Aerospace & Defense
27
Noble (NYSE: NE)
33%
29%
2 Years
Oil & Gas Drilling
43
Data from Capital IQ, a division of
Standard & Poor's.
But you can do better
Unfortunately, large companies attract lots of coverage
from Wall Street analysts -- those 47 stocks have 24 analysts
following them, on average -- which, as I've explained in an
earlier column, makes them less likely to be mispriced.
Even though Buffett's excited about all the opportunities he
sees today, he's well aware that small companies offer
greater upside.
So given that $45 billion
American Express (NYSE: AXP) is on the
smallerend of Buffett's major holdings, why does he
stick with such large stocks?
Buffett's overall portfolio was more
than $112 billion at last count, which means that any new
investments Buffett makes will have to be big -- such as his
recently announced acquisition of
Burlington Northern -- to have much of an
impact on his bottom line. Only huge companies can support
the kind of volume he brings to the table. So he has to look
for the market's best large caps, rather than
the market's best stocks.
He freely acknowledges this fact:Â
[Our] past record can't be duplicated or even
approached. Our base of assets and earnings is now far too
large for us to make outsized gains in the
future[original emphasis]
.
Cue our sympathetic "aww" ...
Why Buffett may wish he had less money
Buffett once famously boasted that he would be able to
earn 50% annual returns... but only if he had a whole lot
lessmoney. Why? Because he'd be able to freely buy
and sell small stocks that the hot shots on Wall Street don't
adequately cover.
So if you're like me and have less than $95 billion to
invest, it makes sense for you to look at some of the stocks
the Oracle wishes he could buy -- small stocks.
If we strip away Buffett's $75 million pre-tax earnings
requirement and focus on small caps, our list of candidates
grows to 76. Better still, these companies have just eight
analysts covering them on average, which increases our
chances that Wall Street's missing something.
Here are three small-cap stocks that Buffett may wish he
could buy.
Company
7-Year Annual Earnings Growth
Return on Equity
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