"[Thompson] is sure to face sharper criticism from those who say that his eight-year Senate record was undistinguished and that his credentials as a conservative are marred by his support of campaign finance reform. Some also say he is a lackadaisical campaigner, pointing to his sometimes rambling maiden speech last month in Orange County, Calif., as evidence that he is overhyped.
Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who helps conduct the NBC-Wall Street Journal Poll with Democrat Peter Hart, said an analysis of their most recent poll indicated that Thompson's entry could initially hurt Giuliani and McCain." --a Michael Shear and Dan Ballz story in The Washington Post, 5/31/07
It is different in the pool. There are elbows, and reporters, and opposition research.
But from the perspective of a columnist and talk show host, the entry of Fred Thompson into the race is a great day. The sooner the GOP debates get down to the big four (plus Newt if he gets in) the better. Senator Brownback, Governor Huckabee, and Congressman Hunter are fine men and serious public servants, but if you can’t get over 10% in even one state poll from among the first four states in which contests will be held –Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida and South Carolina—you shouldn’t be in the first tier, and only the first tier should be taking up prime time in the months ahead.
Many of my blog readers think I am in the bag for Romney based on my book’s disclosure that if the California primary had been held the day the book appeared I would have voted for Romney. That assessment still holds, but as the book noted, campaigns are long, strange affairs. People cry in the back of trucks. Candidates grab microphones and fall off stages. Even presidents can make astonishing errors in their appearances, and they have the best advance team in the world. So a lot can happen between now and next January and February.
Fred Thompson is yet another entrant in the GOP lists who is serious about the war, making that unanimous agreement among the GOP top tier versus a unanimous endorsement of retreat and date certain defeat among the Democrats. There’s the defining issue f the general campaign.
One of the defining issues of the primary campaign will be the immigration bill, and it has defined John McCain right out of his already thin chance to be the nominee. He has now added McCain-Kennedy 2.0 to McCain-Feingold, The Gang of 14, McCain-Kennedy 1.0 and the display of pique last September on the trial and treatment of terrorists in an impressive bid to antagonize every conservative on at least two grounds. I don’t think he makes it to Iowa and the humiliation of fourth place finishes there and in New Hampshire. As the Post notes, Thompson bleeds McCain immediately, giving all the early McCain boosters who thought they were signing up for a front-runner certain to benefit from the GOP’s “next-in-line” tradition of nominees a chance for a Mulligan. Do-overs are rare in politics, but the unexpected arrival on the scene of an “old friend” presents just such an opportunity.
Mayor Giuliani and Governor Romney might lose some folks as well, but their supporters signed up for something completely different than a coronation, and thus far they are getting exactly what they ought to have expected: vibrant and interesting campaigns by candidates of the sort that don’t normally show up in the GOP primaries.
Fred Thompson arrives with many on the sidelines whispering Reagan. Perhaps, but just perhaps. President Reagan was a Californian, not a southerner, an upbeat and sunny optimist who had spent 16 years on the chicken circuit helping the party, and having made one unsuccessful run for the GOP nomination. Few Republicans every thought to raise questions about Reagan’s fire in the belly.
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