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Friday, February 27, 2009
George Will :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Times Blows Smoke on Global Warming
by George Will
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Was the Copenhagen Global Warming Summit Walk-Out a Win for the U.S.?


WASHINGTON -- Few phenomena generate as much heat as disputes about current orthodoxies concerning global warming. This column recently reported and commented on some developments pertinent to the debate about whether global warming is occurring and what can and should be done. That column, which expressed skepticism about some emphatic proclamations by the alarmed, took a stroll down memory lane, through the debris of 1970s predictions about the near certainty of calamitous global cooling.

Concerning those predictions, The New York Times was -- as it is today in a contrary crusade -- a megaphone for the alarmed, as when (May 21, 1975) it reported that "a major cooling of the climate" was "widely considered inevitable" because it was "well established" that the Northern Hemisphere's climate "has been getting cooler since about 1950." Now the Times, a trumpet that never sounds retreat in today's war against warming, has afforded this column an opportunity to revisit another facet of this subject -- meretricious journalism in the service of dubious certitudes.

On Wednesday, the Times carried a "news analysis" -- a story in the paper's news section, but one that was not just reporting news -- accusing Al Gore and this columnist of inaccuracies. Gore can speak for himself. So can this columnist.

Reporter Andrew Revkin's story was headlined: "In Debate on Climate Change, Exaggeration Is a Common Pitfall." Regarding exaggeration, the Times knows whereof it speaks, especially when it revisits, if it ever does, its reporting on the global cooling scare of the 1970s, and its reporting and editorializing -- sometimes a distinction without a difference -- concerning today's climate controversies.

Which returns us to Revkin. In a story ostensibly about journalism, he simply asserts -- how does he know this? -- that the last decade, which passed without warming, was just "a pause in warming." His attempt to contact this writer was an e-mail sent at 5:47 p.m., a few hours before the Times began printing his story, which was not so time-sensitive -- it concerned controversies already many days running -- that it had to appear the next day. But Revkin reported that "experts said" this columnist's intervention in the climate debate was "riddled with" inaccuracies. Revkin's supposed experts might exist and might have expertise but they do not have names that Revkin wished to divulge.

As for the anonymous scientists' unspecified claims about the column's supposedly myriad inaccuracies: The column contained many factual assertions but only one has been challenged. The challenge is mistaken.

Citing data from the University of Illinois' Arctic Climate Research Center, as interpreted on Jan. 1 by Daily Tech, a technology and science news blog, the column said that since September "the increase in sea ice has been the fastest change, either up or down, since 1979, when satellite record-keeping began." According to the center, global sea ice levels at the end of 2008 were "near or slightly lower than" those of 1979. The center generally does not make its statistics available, but in a Jan. 12 statement the center confirmed that global sea ice levels were within a difference of less than 3 percent of the 1980 level.

So the column accurately reported what the center had reported. But on Feb. 15, the Sunday the column appeared, the center, then receiving many e-mail inquiries, issued a statement saying "we do not know where George Will is getting his information." The answer was: From the center, via Daily Tech. Consult the center's Web site where, on Jan. 12, the center posted the confirmation of the data that this column subsequently reported accurately.

The scientists at the Illinois center offer their statistics with responsible caveats germane to margins of error in measurements and precise seasonal comparisons of year-on-year estimates of global sea ice. Nowadays, however, scientists often find themselves enveloped in furies triggered by any expression of skepticism about the global warming consensus (which will prevail until a diametrically different consensus comes along; see the 1970s) in the media-environmental complex. Concerning which:

On Feb. 18 the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that from early January until the middle of this month, a defective performance by satellite monitors that measure sea ice caused an underestimation of the extent of Arctic sea ice by 193,000 square miles, which is approximately the size of California. The Times ("All the news that's fit to print"), which as of this writing had not printed that story, should unleash Revkin and his unnamed experts.

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About The Author
George F. Will is a 1976 Pulitzer Prize winner whose columns are syndicated in more than 400 magazines and newspapers worldwide.
 
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What's this?
George Will standing up for himself? George Will still challenging the religion of watermelons (green on outside, red on inside)?

If Will keeps this up, I may have to tune in to 'This Week with Presidential Spokesman George Stephanopolis'. Maybe. Sometime.

Well, probably not.


Global warming is a religion
I've been researching alternative energy for my home, because of information abuse. Solar and wind energy are lost in transport to their demand site after being gathered (30%). I thought ist made sense to have the unit as close to the demand site as possible (my roof). If I put solar panels on my roof it will cost $18,000 with a puny rebate from the gov't. It will take 14 years to recoup my investment. The equipment involved has a 5-20yr life expectancy. there is no good solar storage system.

If BHO and other environmental devotees really wanted to 'save the earth' wouldn't they do research and development starting in the most logical places based on laws of thermodynamics...the home. Instead they violate their own principles by putting up shrines to their religion all over our beautiful countryside...wind and solar farms.

they stop homes and churches from being built in our communities because of a little frog, but they will desecrate the landscape with ugly, noisy, inefficient wind farms to observe their religion



embarassing.
Will seems aware of the contraversy over his column, but not to have actually read it.

The criticisms of his column were rather specific, and not answered here. Will countered claims about the ice caps in the Northern Hemisphere whose melting has been a prediction of global warming theories, by pointing to overall polar ice levels which has not.

That is to say, the global warming theories make a prediction, that prediction is true. Will claims it is false by desribing the wrong quantity. Do that once and it seems like an oops moment. Do it twice after the source one is quoting makes clear that one has messed up the science the first time, and it looks to be a lack of concern for the truth.

Another of the factual claims that were what Will calls the one to be challenged concerns the idea that there was a consensus on global cooling in the '70s. There were some pop scence articles in the '70's building on a few articles arguing that if one ignores the effects of man on climate then there is reason to expect a period of cooling. But it turns out that 7% of peer reviewed articles on the topic took even this qualified position. Far more scientific articles worried about early evidence of man made warming. Again, Will's problem is with the true false thing.

more
Will also repeats what has become one of the more know-nothings attacks on the global warming position. That is that because things have steadied off after the huge temperature jump in 1998 there is no warming. This is something like saying after a day of 103 degree heat followed by a full week at 102 that it isn't so hot because after all a week ago it was 103.

1998 was an unseasonably warm year. The expectation is that after unseasonably warm years the temperature will return to the previous norm. It has not done that. We have had a decade of unseasonably warm years. Will seems to want the Times to pick out one expert to note the data that is available to everyone. These have been 10 of the hottest decades on record. If Will understood his subject he would be able to read the data himself.

By contrast, to create a false equivalence the Times article accuses Gore of inaccuracy because he says that certain actually occurring phenomena are caused by global warming when his sources say they are probably caused by global warming.

CH
I went to a townhall meeting last night which was hosted by a State Senator and State Rep. here in Colorado. It turns out that in order to compensate for lulls power generation from a wind farm in Eastern Colorado, a coal-fired plant will have to be built next to the windfarm.

Essentially, carbon emissions would be less if the wind farm had never been built.

Global Warming Is BS!
That goes for your cat too,AL!

CH
I agree. The greenies have a much larger and complicate agenda than just clean energy, otherwise they would be in favor of the most cleanest of energy producers, nuclear power plants. For windmills to equal the output of one nuclear power plant, the wind farm would have to be 200 square miles in size. 200 square miles!!!

Global BS 2
Even if it was man that was the cause;
you can't do squat about it!Back in the 30's,there was a drought and hot weather in Kansas,where as a lot of people moved to Calif.

Again in Topeka,the early part of the 50's, 105 for a whole month,same thing,summer of 79,113degree for a whole month(Iwas there! Al Gore is nothing but an Idiot and this generation ought to look in the history books and start to check things out! That's if the libs didn't throw them away!

Oustanding George
I wonder what Revkin and his unnamed experts would think about this story that 'all the news that's fit to print' decided not to print:

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/02/consensus_on_gl obal_warming_co.html

Lon will apparently never give up or surrender is his zeal to damn the unbelievers. Lon writes, "Do it twice after the source one is quoting makes clear that one has messed up the science the first time, and it looks to be a lack of concern for the truth." So, WTF is the truth, Lon? Care to describe the scientific explanation that the quantity of which Will is describing is somehow not the quantity of what was reported. WTF are you talking about Lon. You are an embarrassment to rational thought.

Lon
If you will allow me to also use a snapshot in time, just as you did.

Alta ski area in Utah averages 500" of snow annually. Here are the last 4 ski seasons snowfall totals:

'05 - 697"
'06 - 637"
'07 - 401"
'08 - 701"
And this year, they're on a 575" pace.

Based on this, should we believe the Earth is cooling?


Nutty Will's "Cherry-Picked" Quote
Arctic Climate Research Center?

WHAT THE ACRC ACTUALLY SAID:

"WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE GEORGE WILL IS GETTING HIS INFORMATION, BUT OUR DATA SHOWS that on February 15, 1979, global sea ice area was 16.79 million sq. km and on February 15, 2009, global sea ice area was 15.45 million sq. km. Therefore, global sea ice levels are 1.34 million sq. km LESS in February 2009 than in February 1979. This DECREASE IN SEA ICE AREA is roughly equal to the AREA OF TEXAS, CALIFORNIA, AND OKLAHOMA COMBINED."

"It is disturbing that the Washington Post would publish such information without first checking the facts."


=======

liberals who believe in global warming
won't take facts, just what Al gore says. It's global cooling now anyways, why, because the earth is cooling! Explain why record cold streaks have been set all over the US.

Luckydog
Yes...think of all the migratory birds that would die trying to navigate a 200 mile wind farm. They conveniently forget endangered species when it suits their agenda.

Radical liberals are out of control, but unfortunately in control of the gov't. Why are we allowing them to make policy based on their religious convictions. Soon they will tell us to stop breathing.

I'm all for alternative energy, but think of war. You can't put a windmill on the back of a humvee to make it go. A humvee that runs on electric power??? That's called a sitting duck. Most electricity comes from coal anyway, not wind and solar, so we're back to square one.

I love the idea of using wind and solar, but the gov't can't make sweeping changes without the r&d/science to back it up. It isn't enough to send Ann Curry to the North Pole.






The plumber
If you talk to the insallers, plumbers, electricians, inspectors of all these projects they will tell you to wait. The technology isn't there. I trust their good sense a lot more than i trust Bill Moyers or Al Gore.

Can we at least get the technology efficient before we convert everything?

BTW if you do get solar panels put on your house, then you need a new roof, it will double the cost of your roof replacement just to take the solar system off and put it back on again. Good for small business though!

Resorting to
a consensus of scientists to support your position is proof you have an unsupportable position.

At one point
> a consensus of scientists believed the world was flat
> a consensus of scientists believed the earth was at the center of the universe
> a consensus of scientists believed there were four elements
and they were all wrong. That is why science doesn't work by consensus.

If works by analyzing data -> creating a hypothesis -> testing the hypothesis -> if the hypothesis stands up to scrutiny it becomes a theory. Whenever experimental data contradicts a theory that theory is wrong.

Global warming has gone through the process and found wanting. There is no pause in global warming; there is a hypothesis that has been discredited.

A GREAT BIBLE LESSON
IN TIME HISTORY WILL REVEAL THE TRUTH, THAT WAS JESUS ANSWER WHEN THE RELIGIOUS LEADERS CALLED HIM A DRUNK. GLOBAL WARMING IS A HOAX, IT IS SURVIVING ONLY BY THE EMOTIONS OF THOSE WANTING TO BLAME SOMEONE ELSE OR FINANCING FROM THE BLAMING OF EVERYONE, AL GORE MONOPOLIZATION ON THE CARBON CREDITS INDUSTRY.

You Go, George
I am so glad to see George stand up to the Warmist minions at the Old Crone. And he did it in a way that only he can do.

"Meretricious?" It has been a while since I had to use a dictionary while reading his column, something I formerly had to do almost every time. I attributed my expanded vocabulary as a reason this need had diminished.
However, it is nice to hear and learn a new word, especially one that was used exactly at the correct time and in a perfect manner.

Thanks George. Keep standing up to them...we've got your back.

texas tea party
Given that those snow increases have occurred in years whose obvious temperature are way above the average for recorded history, why would we take them as showing that the world is cooling?

Oh I say you are repeating the uninformed nonsense that cold winters are inconsistent with overall global warming. No, in general we should not draw uninformed conclusions. That was rather my point in criticizing Will's doing so.

Hitchhiker
I think that even given your story, Rivken would object to Will taking evidence out of context and presenting it as showing the opposite of what it actually shows. How do you think they would respond?

Global Warming Hypothesis
I am always amazed at how little understanding of the global warming hypothesis its proponents seem to have. They don't understand the very thing they are advocating.

A warming from an enhanced greenhouse effect, which is what this is all about, manifests itself in a specific manner unique from other causes of warming. Its main effects are that things become less cold rather than bringing about an increase in "warm" events. This means that nights don't get as cool as they formerly did, and winters are less cold.

A very specific signature must be seen in the mid-troposphere which has to warm at a rate that is at least 30% greater than the earth's surface. This has not occurred.

The oft-repeated nonsense that the last decade contains the warmest years is only seen when relying on the data sets from GISS. This organization has zero credibility after all the fabricated data, ommissions, and plain out incompetence they have on display.

No, this theory demands that as CO2 builds up in the atmosphere that latent heat levels also increase. Every available metric shows this is not occurring. The oceans are not warming, there has been no tropospheric warming for over 10 years, and the surface is not warming once urbanization is accounted for and corrected.

The theory doesn't hold any water, in fact, it has never been validated as a theory because the hypothesis has never been empirically tested in the real world.

Mod Mark; Lon on snowfall
I don't believe evidence from the Alta ski area snowfall totals mean anything.

I simply used an absurd example to make the point that taking a snapshot of time, like saying such and such 10 year period of time was the hottest on record is as foolish as using the ski area snowfall totals.



Mod Mark
Your question "What is the long term effect on the climate due to man made CO2 emissions?" is exactly the correct question. I would even expand it by removing the "man-made" qualifier because CO2, period, is the question regardless of its source. If CO2 is shown to be a problem, then we can drill down to the man-made component.

I do not place the same confidence in the models that you seem to. We all know the various issues around it, but as you say at this point we don't have many other tools.

A true scientist would indicate his suspicion that CO2 does or does not effect climate but that at this point no physical mechanism had yet been found that definitively provided an answer.

Instead, it seems that too many scientists get sloppy and say that because they can't find this mechanism therefore it must be CO2. That is philosophy, not science.

That's like walking down the street and finding a dead person laying there. While wondering how this happened another person is seen walking down the other side of the street so hence, he must be responsible. This would be ridiculous and so is blaming CO2 without any real scientific justification for doing so.

ModMark
I read about solar shingles already. I think there are two installers in the whole USA. It seems more like a religious observance to spend $18,000 on a solar alternative, roof or panel, when i will never see any return on my investment. The technology isn't mature, but liberals present it like it's the Mother Theresa of energy options.

MOD Mark

Yeah...you and me both!

I may get to go in March though :)

Lon
writes, "I think that even given your story, Rivken would object to Will taking evidence out of context and presenting it as showing the opposite of what it actually shows. How do you think they would respond?"

I think you are exactly correct. Rivken would definitely object to Will's taking the data out of the context of Rivken's narrative on global warming and interpreting it as evidence of the opposite when that was not what Rivken intended. The facts are that sea ice is currently expanding and the earth is currently cooling contrary to the narrative and that is posing a BIG problem with the hopes and dreams of the control freaks. There never was a consensus of scientific opinion and, as others have stated, science is not a consensus opinion field like politics. As one attempting to help put Will in his place, you place mysticism and group think ahead of science. Just so we are clear.

If the science ever does show a problem, it won't take government to take corrective action but, that is a whole nuther thread.

I'd like to know
how a gas that makes up less than 3% of total atmosphere is somehow on the fast track to burning us all up if we don't quit breathing/faarting/driving right now? Life on Planet Earth IS carbon based, after all, and nobody yet has come up with THE definitive standard for proper temperatures at any place on earth at any time.

What, exactly, are ya gonna do about the weather?

Wind generation vs Coal
The Obama administration has come down squarely of the side of the science of alternative energy v the science of coal shale gasification.

How many windfarms will it take? How much can solar produce? How much will it cost a low income family to heat their home?

If we doubled the alternative energy production it would not account for 10% of the nations needs. How is that going to rid us of oil dependence? Where is the common sense?

Doesn't cap and trade look like a sham to anyonelse? We purchase x, a golf course near Chuck Shumers house because the grass eats up more carbon than New York can produce, it is said, so therefore we can polute as much as we want?

3%????
I believe the atmosphere is comprised of less than 1% CO2. Much less. I think you meant 0.03% although it may be closer to 0.04% in the atmosphere. Since CO2 is heavier than N2 or O2, it is important to understand if the percentage is on a mass or molar basis. In any case, there is approximately 50 times more carbon sequestered in the seas than in the atmosphere.

In any case, approximately 1/4 of the CO2 in the atmosphere is exchanged with the land (mostly plant and animal life) and sea. The land-air exchange and sea-air exchange are nearly equal. Of the land-air exchange, fossil fuel combustion is less than 5%.

Will should just admit he is wrong
Will's original column on this topic, and the current lame attempt to defend it, are hardly sterling examples of the honest "debate" over climate-change science that conservatives are always claiming still exists. The original column was a trainwreck of factual error and Will apparently lacks the courage or character to admit it. And the Washington Post---to its eternal discredit as a news organization---is representing the trainwreck as a matter of differing opinion rather than the festering pile of factual error that it is.

For a point-by-point refutation of Will's blatant misrepresentations, see this column by Joseph J. Romm, a physicist who---in sharp contrast to Will---is an expert commentator on climate-change science. Furthermore, as the son of two award-winning journalists, he is outraged by behavior of Will and the Post in this matter.

http://climateprogress.org/2009/02/27/in-a-journalistic-blu nder-reminiscent-of-the-janet-cooke-scandal-the-senior-edit ors-of-the-washington-post-let-george-will-reassert-several -climate-falsehoods-plus-some-new-ones/



annually
The CO2 exchange due to respiration, transpiration, combustion, decomposition, photosynthesis, etc are on an annual basis in my previous post. Sorry for any confusion.

johninoregon
Your link basically says that George Will is wrong to interpret data because he is not a board certified climatologist. Because the original authors buy into the global warming charade, any and all evidence must be used to that end and cannot be interpreted differently than they have already interpreted it. Nice.

We have made up our mind. We are not willing to consider any other opinions than our own. If we say the evidence supports our theory, then that is that. And they call themselves scientists.

Imagine a group of children playing football. One side scores a touchdown and the other side says it doesn't count cause the guy who brought the football is on our team.

While on the subject of children
I think it is always best to try to think of children when reading liberal tripe because it really helps to understand the mindset of those shoveling it. If egotistic scientists cannot win with facts and logic then, they will naturally fall back onto those things they learned as children when confronted with resistance. Most liberals argue this way. We, on the wacko conservative side, only resort to ad hominum attacks when they are simply too much fun to pass up. Liberals use them and cannot understand the lack of persuasiveness.

7th Warmest January for Global Temp
===

NOAA:
The combined global land and ocean surface average temperature for January 2009 was the seventh warmest since records began in 1880, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

The analyses in NCDC’s global reports are based on preliminary data, which are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and as increased scientific methods improve NCDC’s processing algorithms.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090218_globalsta ts.html

===

2008 Global Temperature Eighth Warmest
===

NOAA:
The year 2008 tied with 2001 as the eighth warmest year on record for the Earth, based on the combined average of worldwide land and ocean surface temperatures through December, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. For December alone, the month also ranked as the eighth warmest globally, for the combined land and ocean surface temperature. The assessment is based on records dating back to 1880.

The analyses in NCDC’s global reports are based on preliminary data, which are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and as increased scientific methods improve NCDC’s processing algorithms.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090113_ncdcstats .html

===

Htichhiker
the sources that Will cites to support the claims you make say otherwise. That is not an honest way to argue. Obviously one needs to get into detail about exactly how he misrepresents what they say, and I did above, but Will gives his authorities to support his claims that global warming is not occurring or is not happening. And his authorities say he doesn't know what he is talking about.

The Arctic ice caps are shrinking. They are shrinking at slightly faster rates than most global warming theories predict. That is why one sees stories about how global warming is happening faster than predicted.

There are things other than the arctic ice caps that are not shrinking. But unless global warming theories predicted that those things would shrink as well, pointing to them as evidence against global warming is really just pointing to evidence that one does not understand the claims of the people one means to be countering.

I am sorry that you do not want that to be true. But given that we have a new administration that has appointed scientists to the positions that will make decisions regarding whether global warming is happening, we are likely to see policy based on the science.

I will be interested to see if the 3 of 5 scientists in your link who disagree are able to provide more support for their minority view. There is nothing dishonest about opposing global warming. But Will's taking evidence from respected sources and misdescribing what those sources say, is somewhat dishonest. If not the first time he did it, which could have been ignorance, then certainly the second time after those agencies had explained his mistakes.

LoneRules
Lone Rules writes:
"For December alone, the month also ranked as the eighth warmest globally, for the combined land and ocean surface temperature. The assessment is based on records dating back to 1880."

Me:
Maybe it was too cold before 1880.

What do you think the ideal global average temperature for plants, animals and humans is in order for them to thrive?

How do we get there?

How do we keep it there?

Just curious...


This just in:
Barack Obama is going to spend another $25 trillion dollars to fill in all of the world's volcanic craters with concrete in order to prevent global warming.

Any concrete left over will be stuffed up all the cow's bums.

Several hundred thousand years of
temperature vs. CO2 measurements show conclusively that changes in CO2 follow changes in global temperature by about 800 years. Thus it is higher temperatures that cause higher CO2 levels--not the other way round.

Which just totally destroys the entire global warming argument.

Ridiculous
It is beyond bizarre that anyone tries to claim recent years as the warmest in the record.

As I have stated earlier, this claim is based on the corrupt surface data used by NOAA, HadCrut, and GISS.

When you are honest enough to review the data credibility issues with this data set you can see that about the only thing that can be done with it is to print it and line your bird cage with it.

Siting issues, station dropout, absurd attempts at UHI adjustment, procedures for "estimating" missing data, adjusting raw data and then adjusting again the already adjusted data...and so on, and then complete resistance to providing any source codes or algorithms to those who wish to examine and attempt replication of the results. If any scientist did this sort of thing in any area other than climate science they would be brought up on charges of scientific dishonesty. The fact this is all being done with taxpayer money with complete disregard to various data integrity requirements borders on criminal.

Anyone who looks at these issues and then still tries to ignore it and make ridiculous claims cannot in any manner be taken seriously.

Lon, LoneRules and Other
Global Warming fanatics and idiot liberals ...

Unlike you, the brain dead, I am capable of checking facts myself and ascertaining temperatures. Just this week there was a story about the Antarctica glaciers "melting" much faster than "expected" http://townhall.com/news/sci-tech/2009/02/25/antarctic_gla ciers_melting_faster_than_thought ... which examined glaciers on the Western Peninsula of Antarctica which has experienced some mild warming. Near the very end of the article, it presented a fact posted from the scientific journal "Nature" which stated the AVERAGE temperature in Antarctica is MINUS 50 degrees ... a mere 82 degrees from even STARTING TO MELT!

I checked temperatures myself using a web site that gives the temperatures at what appears to be ALL Antarctica weather stations ... http://www.wunderground.com/global/AA.html ... most of these stations are on the coast where it IS warmer, but also a tiny fraction of the land area of the entire continent. Still, there are few temperatures above freezing and those are BARELY above freezing and, bear in mind, that's it's late SUMMER there, the hottest time of the year ... in the vast interior, temperatures are as cold as 60 BELOW ZERO, again in SUMMER. Think there's a chance in hell the entire ice cap will soon melt ... IDIOTS!

One more observation ... here in central Illinois, we have had 13 consecutive years without a SINGLE 100 DEGREE DAY ... despite it supposedly being the hottest decade in recorded history ... 20 years ago and earlier, I can assure you, by direct experience [which I know you fools distrust, preferring an ideological driven "expert" to tell you what to believe] such 100 degree days were NOT rare! Wake up MORONS!

Natural Variability Controls the Climate
The sun, and the oceans which are the primary resevoir of solar energy, are the dominant forces in climate.

Land quickly radiates away the solar energy it absorbs during the day. In contrast, oceans, comprising 70% of the earth's surface, take solar energy into reserve. Currents and winds distribute this energy around the earth providing for the respective climates.

IR from the greenhouse effect can only penetrate the top 2mm of the ocean's surface (a distance equivalent to the thickness of a dime).
UV from the sun penetrates to a depth of almost 100 meters. Clearly this demonstrates that changes in solar intensity become quickly amplified (up or down) based on the direction of change. This stored energy serves as a lagging effect of the sun. Its process has been described as being similar to a thermos bottle.

People claim that changes in solar intensity are not enough to explain climate change and that the sun's energy dropped off about 10 years ago. Isn't it striking that temps haven't increased in 10 years.

Lon
Lon, I am indifferent as to whether the earth is warming or cooling. Whether the ice caps are shrinking or expanding. The bottom line is the earth has been much much warmer at periods in the past before the industrial revolution. It is incumbent upon the scientists to prove their theory before we trash the economy to save us from something we are only beginning to understand. The policy is based on junk science. The policy is exactly what one would expect from socialist control freaks even if the earth was encased in a protective wrapper and kept an absolute temperature forever. They are always looking for an excuse. They are currently using the recession but, they know those things end eventually. They can be prolonged but, not indefinitely. Global warming is the be all answer.

Given this, why the rush to judgment? Why can't we wait for more evidence? Why the fearmongering. Rahm Emmanuel can answer that. A simple oops thirty or forty years from now will not make up for the reduction in living standards and lost liberty thrown away on junk science when the earth continues to warm and we discover there is nothing we can do about it and our carbon dioxide is not the cause but rather solar output, earth orbit eccentricities, and many other factors.

To buy into this crap, one has to think that physics was able to predict black holes thirty years after the apple fell on Newton's head. The morons are comparing sea ice to a twenty year average starting in 1979!! We are talking about climate changes in geologic time spans using models derived from data collected over a five minute period.

You are buying a used car from a salesman that shows you a picture for a split second and assures you it is in superb condition but, refuses you the option to look at it yourself or drive it even around the block before making your decision. I would not buy it but, you have already written the check. I sure hope it serves you well. It sucks that I have to ride in it also.

First time poster here
I just wanted to say a quick hello to the regular posters here on TH. The whole global warming.. um excuse me "climate change" thing set me off. I will refrain from commenting on posts by a few people. Lon, Lonerules..etc could easily be destroyed, but I think a few regular posters have already taken care of that.

Everyone have a great weekend. Off to bring in a bunch of wood to burn Sunday night ( 22degree low for Sunday and Monday). Btw.. the thermostat will be set at 72 for the rest of the house. I LOVE MY CARBON FOOTPRINT!

Global Warming
This subject has a history in the NYT that goes further back than the 70's. I read (I believe in a TH commentary) that the NYT ran stories in the 1930's about global warming, and again in the late 1800's or early 1900's about global cooling. I don't know if this is true - but it should be checked, and if so, reported widely. It certainly coincides with natural cooling and warming cycles over the last century (and does not correlate with the consistent rise in atmospheric CO2 levels over the same time period).

DUMBOMBA Jokes
Friday should be a day to laugh at DUMBOMBA and his 'gay' followers - especially the obombniacs that haunt this blog ... :-)

*The maid in charge of the wardrobe at the White House is arranging Obama's suits. "Black suit, brown suit, blue suit, gray suit, empty suit... Oh! I'm sorry, Mr. President!"

*Michelle Obama fuming over pictures of Her Husband knee-deep in the Hawaiian surf: "All the pictures of Him walking on water, and CNN had to run the one where He fell in!...

*"Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit Obama's national debt."

*Based on his performance in office so far, President Obama should do just fine on his future tax returns. After all, he will be able to write off his second term.

*It's too bad that we can't buy stock in the federal tax system. With Obama as president that will be only thing sure to go up.

*President Obama is angrily calling for more federal tax increases. He just heard from his advisors that some American taxpayers weren't completely broke yet.

*The best things in life are free but President Obama's tax advisors are working hard trying to solve that problem.

Uba-bama-bama-bama-ding-ding
**Barack Obama isn't planning on buying TurboTax®. Obama can turbocharge our taxes all by himself.

**President Obama's tax return should list Bill Ayers and Reverend Wright as dependents.

**President Obama plans to start printing income tax forms on Kleenex, so it will be easier for us to pay through the nose.

**President Obama has just announced that he has a new plan to simplify the tax code. From now on only the Republicans will have to have to pay any taxes.

**Q. Who should be listed as the most expensive dependent on your tax return?

A. President Obama.

**President Obama will make it a lot easier for most people to do their income taxes next year. No jobs, no income.

**Under Obama everyone in America will be working for the government. Democrats will be on the payrolls and Republicans will be on the tax rolls.

**In the interest of full disclosure, President Obama's should declare all of the fawning media coverage he's received so far as a gift on his tax return.

**Despite what some people are claiming, this country is just as free under the Obama presidency as it ever was . . . unless you happen to be a taxpayer.

**If President Obama listed free enterprise on his tax return, it would have to be listed as a liability. That's because he just writes it off.

**Today the IRS released new guidelines on how to avoid audits while Obama is the president. Number one - Don't list excessive deductions. Number two - File your return on time. Number three - Register to vote as a Democrat.

**Judging by his wild spending so far, President Obama has apparently decided that it is easier to trim the taxpayers than to trim federal spending.

**Don't think of it as paying more taxes. Think of it as giving Obama a big tip.

**Thanks to President Obama we will become a more honest people. Once we're all jobless there won't be any point in lying on our tax returns.

Uba-tuba-booba-rooba!
*** Q. Why did Obama change his name from Barry Obama to Barack Obama?
A. He thought “Barry” sounded too American.

*** What do Miley Cyrus and Barack Obama have in common? They both attract young people with mindless verses

*** A teacher asked her 6th grade class how many of them were Obama fans. Not really knowing what an Obama fan is, but wanting to be liked by the teacher, all the kids raised their hands except for little Johnny. The teacher asked Little Johnny why he has decided to be different.

Little Johnny said, 'Because I'm not an Obama fan.'

The teacher asked, 'Why aren't you an Obama fan?'

Johnny said, 'Because I'm a Republican.'

The teacher asked him why he's a Republican.

Little Johnny answered, 'Well, my Mom's a Republican and my Dad's a Republican, so I'm a Republican.'

Annoyed by this answer, the teacher asked, 'If your mom was a moron and your dad was an idiot, what would that make you?'

With a big smile, Little Johnny replied, 'That would make me an Obama fan.


Some multivariate thinking, please
Both many proponents and opponents of AGW seem to rest content with arguing back and forth about whatever single factor which which they happen to be enamored. Why can't it be the case that a full explanation of global warming will have to bring together a variety of long-term cycles in global climate change that includes attention to changes in solar output, variations in Earth's orbit, natural sources of greenhouse gases, and human sources of greenhouse gases? I guess thinking like that is just too darn liberal for conservatives. Unfortunately, Al Gore doesn't get this either.

As a mere political scientist, I'm accustomed to having to develop multivariate models for complex phenomena. This is also done in the physical sciences. Debates about AGW could benefit from a little real-world complexity, but I'm doubtful if either side is willing to acknowledge that it might not be successful in sticking to just one factor to explain everything.

OBA-HA-HA
**** Q. Why won't Obama release his real birth certificate?

A. He's deciding which of his names (Barack Barry Hussein Obama Soetoro) to put on it.

**** Q. Why won't Obama release his real birth certificate?

A. The ink isn't dry yet.


**** Q. Why won't Obama release his real birth certificate?

A. He accidently smoked it.

**** Q. Why won't Obama Messiah release his real birth certificate?

A. It got mixed in with his Rezko mortgage records and shredded.

**** A Christian, a Jew and Barack Obama are in a rowboat in the middle of the ocean. Barack Obama says, "This joke isn't going to work because there's no Muslim in this boat."

Reality
The really sad part of all of this is that the feds are about to pile on to our economic problems with cap & trade to "save the planet."
Look, if it's really the disaster the proponents say it is, why do they (liberals) cherry pick things that must be curtailed or eliminated in order to "save the planet?"

Doesn't it make sense that if there is a monumental problem, you address anything and everything you can to create a solution.
Yet, nobody, not Al Gore, not BHO, nobody, that I have heard has called for curtailing and/or eliminating any part of the entertainment industry. Do we really need 30 + baseball teams playing over 160 games per season, and that's just the majors. And there's all of those other sports including NASCAR. And how about fans traveling to the games, the electricity for night games, and TV broadcasts. Not to mention recording artists on tour. There's more, but you get my drift. Just what is the carbon footprint for the entertainment industry? We like it, but we don't need it. If climate change was truly a crisis, surely someone, somewhere would call for at least scaling something back, don't you think?

Al Gore is a Leg Humping Moron
If Global warming is a fact then so is global cooling a fact.

The rest is just taxes and taxes have nothing to do with the orbit the earth takes around the Sun or the tilt of the earth which determines how much of the suns energy the earth absorbs.

If global warming could be solved with taxes wouldn’t it make more sense to down size the Government and reduce the government’s carbon foot print while reducing taxes?

Al Gore is the kind of fool that would stand in front of a volcano and demand higher taxes to prevent the volcano from blowing its top.

Throw a Net Over Al Gore
Al Gore is a Bronze Age witch doctor that wants to increase the size of government and the government carbon foot print while forcing us to sacrifice to the sun god.

Is there no end to the foolishness of our leaders in Washington D.C.?

What happened to separation of church and state?

Will Was Essentially Correct
There has been no warming for the last 10 years. The models used to "predict" warming are so famously flawed as to be worth less than the average horoscope.

Looking at the models used by the IPCC in 1998 you will see increases in temperature ranging from .25 to .45 degrees/decade. The actual number is below the lowest prediction.

The famous "Hockey Stick" graph produced by Mann, Bradley and Hughes purporting to prove that the 20th century was the hottest in a thousand years was shown to contain gross statistical errors.

The modern warming was real, it has stopped. The hottest century of the last thousand years was likely during the Medieval Warm Period about a thousand years ago.

Will warming continue? Yes, but due to natural factors. We are approaching the top temperature portion of the modern inter-glacial period which means that within 50,000 years the seas will rise 200 meters as the temperature will climb 6-10 degrees C.

No one alive today and no one of the next 100 generations will live to see it. Stop worrying about global warming and live your life. If that isn't good enough for you then move to Minnesota.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJUFTm6cJXM

"Scientists say..."
Whatever their government sponsors want them to say,to advance their wicked Cap-n-Trade scheme!

Two facts about global whatever
Anyone with the slightest ability to have a logical thought should consider two facts before jumping on the global warming insanity bandwagon.

1)The earth in its’ recent history has experienced a number of ice ages. I guess the emissions from those cave man SUVs and coal burning power plants caused ancient global warming that melted the ice.
2)The earth’s climate has been constantly changing for the billions of years that it has existed. Why should these horrible two legged creatures that have been around for a comparative instant think all change should stop forever because they are here?

unbelievable
I honestly have no idea whether AGW is taking place, and whether or not humans impact global macro-trends, but it is absolutely unbelievable that this has turned into a paritsan issue....but hey you gotta believe, and argue on behalf of, the theories your party collectively has settled on, right? or not...meaningless and continious arguments, I agree with Gestell...

"Why can't it be the case that a full explanation of global warming will have to bring together a variety of long-term cycles in global climate change that includes attention to changes in solar output, variations in Earth's orbit, natural sources of greenhouse gases, and human sources of greenhouse gases?"

and I support anyone who is working on those aforementioned multivariate models...which would not include by any stretch or anyone's imagination, the author of this piece..

FairnessMan
I certainly agree that the warming/cooling trends before man any ability to impact them whatsoever are undisputable....however, this is not to say that man cannot accelerate these changes...or deccelerate, either way.

Do you also think that wolrd's clean water supplies, which some would argue are decreasing rapidly, cannot be altered by man in a way inconsistent with its prior trends?

The truth
It's funny to see all the arguments about whose date is correct and who's the idiot.

Here's one irrefutable fact.

Al Gore has a cause. He gets a bunch of ignorant libs to take up his cause. He's getting rich from investments in green energy, speaking tours, cap and trade, etc.

He's laughing all the way to the bank, while his loyal followers get stuck with the bill.

And that is the one guaranteed fact

Why does anyone report on the NYT???

Mr. Will,

The New York Times may be a big factor in your journalistic life but not in mine. I don't read it. Never have read it. Never will read it. In fact in my 56 years, I have never seen a copy of it.

What I do hear and see is others reporting all the misleading reporting in the New York Times.

So if the New York Times is so bad, why are you and others so focused on it? It appears to be a not journalistic entity. It no longer reports news and facts and informs the public. You might as well spend your time reporting on the lastest Spiderman comic book.

Kenley and all others
Yes, I guess man can have some affect on climate change, just as I can have some affect on the level of the ocean by taking a pi$$ into the ocean. Obviously, I am saying that man does practically nothing to change the climate cooler or warmer.

We can solve this problem
First, you can't call it global warming anymore because we are into another cooling cycle. It's now climate change which oddly enough is supposed to explain warming and cooling.

This problem will be fixed as soon as congress passes the carbon taxes that have been driving this science since the beginning.

This debate, or lack of debate, has never been about science. It's about taxes and establishing more government regulation. Once that is accomplished everything will be just fine.

Debate

Good debate on youtube.

One guy has facts, figures, and actual data to test the global warming hypothesis.

The other has hot air.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACo2OCSJnBI

I recommend part 3, check out the graph at 6 min.

Sgt. Relic
Bingo! You earned a Commission on that one.

My Global Warming Theory
The left embraces AGW with both arms and both legs clinging tightly like a little monkey because they NEED a crisis, a monster in the closet or under the bed with which to scare themselves. This is their religion's evil to be overcome.

AGW fits nicely with their predisposition to believing that the earth would be perfect if only man were gone. Their 'original sin'

They also use AGW to support the Algore who they betrayed by voting for Nader and the Green Party in numbers significant enough to have caused the Algore to lose to Bush (or so they fear). They even have their own betrayer of their own Messiah. But unfortunately for the rest of us they will only get redemption if they sacrifice the non believers and create hell here on earth.

Oh well, I guess if you're going to be a corporate tool you may as well be GE's tool and it's nice that they'll be able to make Algore rich since they cost him so much in the election.

Reply #62
You have to understand that AGW has to be 100% our fault. That is the only way we can be guilty of destroying the planet, and therefore it becomes justified to take corrective action to encourage less use of fossil fuels. Since wind & solar, at this point in time, cannot possibly compete with petroleum on a cost basis, it is now necessary to raise the cost of petrol to even the playing filed. The end result will be higher utility bills for you & me, while the feds collect more money (cap & trade) to redistribute. If there were any natural or cosmic factors involved here, then they could not hold mankind responsible, and all we could really do is prepare as best we can for whatever, just as we now do when a hurricane or tornado is coming our way.

If this is really the crisis they say it is,paying carbon credits makes as much sense as a smoker who sends a check to the American Cancer Society, as he continues to smoke until the day he dies.

Feedfwd
Thanks for the correction-I knew the levels of CO2 were probbly more like 0.03% or something but chose to err on the side of the larger quantity.

At any rate, when someone has figured out just exactly what the temp on earth at any given time and in any given place is SUPPOSED to be, THEN I will believe that we'll have 'change we can believe in'.

Till then, I agree with the poster who called Algore a leghumping moron! :)

Al Gore Cult
I have long thoughy of global warming as the "Al Gore Cult" with millions drinking the kool-aid. A cut off of Middle East oil will bring America to it's knees. WE should be drilling now to secure our supply for our economic and national security. Work on alternative energy ? Yes. But drill now. For now America runs on oil. Besides, I like my SUV. I don't want a little car. Don't think we'll see Al Gore running around in a little car or giving up his private jet for that matter.

Sun Melts Enviromentalists' Brains
I get a boost to my ego every time I read the screeds of GW defenders. I think to myself, you may not have gone to Harvard or Yale but at least you know there's no way humans can affect global temperature. Now I would never debate with a volcano but that's part of Mother Nature. Wacko enviros want to control us, not the weather. That point will be brutally clear as the Messiah moves to control CO2 emissions with taxes on all kinds of energy, which ultimately will hit everybody's budget.

And most of us, if not all of us living today, will never know the truth because it will just fade away as another urban legend--grist for some future author writing about the foolishness of human beings.

Tom
I'm not disagreeing with you necessarily, but the analogy about the smoker doesn't seem like such a bad idea...especially if he is not forced to pay, but voluntarily does...won't this lead to more money to try to find a cure for cancer, so he can smoke all he wants, get cancer and then get treated, as a result of his own money partially funding the treatment??

FairnessMan
I know what you are saying and while I can't disagree with you because I have no clue what the truth is...you have to admit it is possible that there is a larger affect than you ascribe to man....what about the fresh water levels decreasing, is this not strictly because of man's overusage? but please don't lump me in with AGW advocates or whatever they are called because I have no clue and don't mind admitting it..

Pravda & Izvestia More Credible Than NYT
I never thought this possible, yet today, Pravda and Izvestia, once the USSR's propaganda sheets, are far more credible than NYT, WaPo, CNN, NBC, CBS, etc.etc.
Can't wait until they also go bankrupt. We shouldn't have to put up with them much longer. Unless, of course, the Marxists in charge in DC decide to bail them out and subsidize them for ever, no surprise there.

meretricious journalism
I guess that means the old gray lady is no better than women of ill repute. Will owes these women an apology for comparing them to the New York Times.

reply to kenley #17
Unfortunately, political partisanship now extends to science and scientific explanations. Fanatic AGW supporters like Al Gore cherry-pick their science, and so do conservatives, from their ideological standpoint. I'm an old-fashioned believer in what scientific explanations involve and how science is really done. This is not, however, a viewpoint that is very popular right now.


Still Shocked your here.....
Well, I see things have not changed at the Old grey Town Hall....Good ole George is still here!
No, matter what you write it will have little meaning to me, though I am surprised you actually have anything bad to say about anything the left does, or has in the works...I mean you have this Love for Obama and what he represents that I thought he could do no wrong?
Yet here you are writting your worthless oppinion...Yeah, the Grey Old lady, T/H...the infestation runs deep even here, with the RINO Virus...but there is always hope you too will fade away some day...I hope.

kenley CA
I certainly am no expert on fresh water supplies on planet Earth. I don't think mans use of fresh water could have anything to due with climate change either since I salt water probably makes up a very percentage of the water on Earth. However, I also would think that with 6 billion people, we two legged horrible creatures certainly strain the fresh water supply.

Corrrection
In last post, very high, not very.

Ode to Global Warming-R Lefevre
For the Nobel Prize in literature, I submit my "Ode to Global Warming": However has it come to pass/// That 59 years I've managed to amass/// For in every decade I've been told/// I should not plan to ever grow old/// Life on earth it has been said to me/// Is about to come to an end, you'll see/// In the 60's, Zero Population Growth said/// From mass starvation, we'd all be dead/// In the 70's Newsweek told of scientists with sage/// Who were sure I was gonna freeze in an approaching ice age/// Reagan's election brought warnings without compunction/// Of my imminent vaporizing in Mutually Assured Destruction/// Later Jane Fonda warned no basement in my home/// Would stop me from glowing in the coming China syndrome/// And I really took in much asprin from Bayer/// When told of the hole in the ozone layer/// Next it was to be more human caused bedlam///When the clock struck midnight of the new millenium/// Now a new catastrophe-to-be is a forming/// My life could be cut short by global warming/// This latest threat is really more than I can take/// 60 candles now banished from my next birthday cake/// But wait, alas, things are becoming clear/// If the soothsayers were right, why am I still here?/// Endtimers thought warnings might spur a solution inspirer/// But they have a worse record than the psyhics in Enquirer/// As high living fearmongers' tree planting "carbon offsets" take root/// It's looking more like symbolism, do they really give a hoot?/// I hold no grudge for my senibilities made brittle/// For maybe they were convinced just like Chicken Little/// I now discount seriously the doomsdayers din/// I feel so much better without all that spin/// So when next the fanatics sound the alarm/// Be thee skeptical that it'll cause real harm/// Don't panic for you have this poem with rhyme/// Pause to remember and think a second time///

I never believed
their excuse that the satellites gave a defective reading.
What I do believe is the liberal insane monsters in charge of collating the data lied and crapped out their demonic liberal takeover codeworks, and were once again, CAUGHT RED HANDED - commie red handed...
So they blabbed out some idiotic excuse.
They lie as often as they can possibly muster, and we all know it's so the libtards running congress can feed them more and more granted billions to spew out the lies at an ever alarming rate - while they shriek that republicans ignore science and live in the throwback of the religious flat earth dark ages.
Yes, libs you are the dirty liars, constantly fudging the numbers, and now you've been caught, and more and more, your insane propaganda takeover plan will blow apart in your faces.
Of course we see it will be too late, and you'll just excuse yourselves claiming your obamamaniac green takeover of everything in the USA is "good overall for everyone".
I have absolutely ZERO respect left for you.
Stay away from me.
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