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Sunday, October 15, 2006
George Will :: Townhall.com Columnist
The economics of baseball
by George Will
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Sins can be such fun. Of the seven supposedly deadly ones, only envy does not give the sinner at least momentary pleasure. And an eighth, schadenfreude -- enjoyment of other persons' misfortunes -- is almost the national pastime.

Speaking of baseball, two Saturdays ago old Dodger Stadium was reverberating with fans' excitement. It might seem odd to call "old" a ballpark that opened in 1962, but it is tied with the Nationals' RFK Stadium as the National League's second oldest, behind only the Cubs' Wrigley Field (1914). (A riddle: What do the Cubs and Cardinals have in common? Neither team has won a World Series in its new ballpark. Of course, the Cardinals' new park opened in April.) Anyway, shortly before their Dodgers were beaten by the Mets in the National League Division Series, Angelenos emitted animal roars of approval as they watched, on the giant screen in left-center field, the Tigers defeat the Yankees in the ALDS.

Some Dodgers fans still nurse a grudge they inherited from Brooklynites when the Dodgers decamped for California after the 1957 season. But rooting against the Yankees is as American as a microwaved wedge of frozen apple pie topped with a slice of processed cheese. Such rooting often is the unlovely underside of the democratic ethos -- envy of excellence. But there also is resentment of the Yankees' financial advantage that has been inimical to baseball's competitive balance.

That, however, is a diminishing problem, for two reasons: Major League Baseball has implemented more redistribution of resources, and a new breed of general managers (e.g. Oakland's Billy Beane and Minnesota's Terry Ryan) are using new player-evaluation metrics to wring more baseball value from fewer dollars.

The Yankees' payroll of $206.4 million (not including the almost $30 million tax paid to MLB on the portion of the payroll over $136.5 million) is 2.4 times the Tigers' payroll. The Yankees' third baseman earns 68.7 times the salary of the Mets' all-star third baseman (Alex Rodriguez, $25.7 million; David Wright, $374,000). The shortstop makes approximately what the Marlins' team makes (Derek Jeter, $20.6 million; Marlins, $20.68 million). But the 2006 Yankees did baseball -- and the rest of America, if it learns the larger social lesson of the story -- the favor of demonstrating the steeply declining utility of the last $100 million of payroll.

New York, the world's financial capital, takes money very seriously. And New York has been the intellectual epicenter of political liberalism, which has consistently preached, and has consistently disproved, the efficacy of pitching large sums of money at social problems. In the city where America's welfare state was first imagined and implemented, the entitlement mentality bred by the welfare state includes the assumption that the Yankees are entitled to be in the World Series, which they have not been since -- gasp -- 2003.

There still are revenue and spending disparities between baseball teams that are impossible between NFL and NBA teams because those leagues have salary caps and more centralized revenue sources. Nevertheless, when the Tigers dispatched the Yankees that Saturday, baseball was guaranteed its seventh different World Series winner in seven years. There never have been seven consecutive Super Bowls, or seven consecutive NBA championships, won by seven different teams.

Baseball's supposed "golden age" of the 1940s and 1950s was not so golden outside New York. In 1947 the Yankees won the American League pennant and beat the Dodgers in the World Series. In 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952 and 1953 the Yankees were World Series winners over the Dodgers, Phillies, Giants, Dodgers and Dodgers, respectively. If the Phillies had not beaten the Dodgers in the 10th inning of the last game of the 1950 season, every World Series game for five years would have been played in New York. And if 103 wins, which usually are enough to win the pennant, had sufficed in 1954 (the Indians won 111, an American League record for a 154-game season), the Yankees would have won 10 pennants in a row, because they also won in 1955, 1956, 1957 and 1958.

Great Yankee teams have been good for baseball. In the 1930s, one of every four tickets sold to an American League game was for a game involving the Yankees. And this year, when the Yankees were drawing 4,200,518 fans to Yankee Stadium, they also played in front of 3,080,290 million on the road. But improved competitive balance is one reason why, for the third consecutive year, MLB set an attendance record (76,043,902), and why today is MLB's golden age, even west of the Hudson River.

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About The Author
George F. Will is a 1976 Pulitzer Prize winner whose columns are syndicated in more than 400 magazines and newspapers worldwide.
 
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Comments
First of all, there's a hidden message in this column, supposedly written about baseball. A brilliant message about communism and capitalism. As Will pointed out, Baseball, unlike football and basketball, has NO SALARY CAP (though admittedly the "tax" on salaries above $136.5 million is a step in that direction). A salary cap is something that professional sports leagues put in place to "level the playing field", so to speak, so that one team with a huge fan base, and consequently huge revenues, can't buy up all the best talent in the league and run roughshod over all the other teams.

Though you may consider this a good idea from the standpoint of competition, from an economic viewpoint, it's out-and-out COMMUNISM. (For that matter, so is "revenue sharing", which is rampant in the NBA and NFL, but not in MLB.) So I applaud MLB for holding true to the capitalist ideals of the nation that has accepted baseball as its national passtime.

But an important point here, that Will made, but did not, in my opinion, emphasize enough, is that, even without a salary cap, the last seven years have seen seven different World Series winners. While in basketball and football, which DO have salary caps, this has never happened, not in any seven-consecutive-year period in the history of either sport. The lesson here is that SALARY CAPS DON'T WORK. In fact, on empirical evidence alone, the case can be made that salary caps actually work the opposite of the way they were intended. I know this is contrary to the theory, but hey, when you go messing around with communism, who the heck knows what's going to happen?

Another point - though I generally like Will, and admire his knowledge of and passion for baseball, I have to take issue with his use (misuse?) of statistics. He said, in the last paragraph of his column, "In the 1930s, one of every four tickets sold to an American League game was for a game involving the Yankees." To the reader who doesn't think this through clearly, it might seem that 25% of all baseball fans were Yankee fans, or that the Yankees can claim credit for one fourth of all tickets sold.

But that's not true. In every game, there are two teams, and SOME of the people who buy tickets came to see the OTHER team. Now, I don't know how many teams there were in the American League at that time, but I'm positive it was less than the 14 that currently play in the AL. I suspect it was 10, max, and may have been as few as 8. If there were indeed, 8 teams, with every game featuring 2 teams, if you look at each team's figure for ticket sales to games involving that team, the league average is 25%, EXACTLY THE SAME as the "one in four tickets sold" that Will credits to the Yankees. So, with 8 teams, the Yankees are no better than average. In fact, since the league average is just that, an average, it can be presumed that there were some teams higher than that avearge and some teams lower than that average, and therefore, at least one team had a better percentage than the Yankees.

If, on the other hand, there were 10 teams in the AL in the 30's, then the league average is 20%. And the Yankees' 25% of ticket sales is just 5 percentage points above average. Moreover, again pointing out that the 20% is an average across the league, it is still possible, even likely, that at least one team had a better percentage than the Yankees.

For example, keeping the numbers simple, say the Red Sox and (Philadelphia) Athletics each had 30%, the Yankees and White Sox 25%, and the other 6 teams had 15% each, adding to a total of 200%, which is accurate for the nature of these statistics since each game involved two teams. The Yankees would then have just the third best percentage of league ticket sales. Of course, I suspect that they did, in fact, lead the league in this percentage, but my point is, you can't PROVE it with the statistics Will provided.

And my other point is that Will's "one in four tickets", whether intentional or not, is misleading in that, to the unthinking reader, it overstates by a factor of two the fan base of the Yankees. Which just goes to prove what Mark Twain said: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

All that said, I hate the Yankees with a passion (but not quite as much as I hate the Braves), and in general root for the National League over the American League (don't get me started on the designated hitter rule). But for the last 10 years, I've been a much bigger fan of COLLEGE baseball than MLB. It's a crying shame that, even during the College World Series, the best a college baseball game rates on TV is ESPN2, the network that is PROUD to bring you the X Games. And regular season college games, and even NCAA regional and super-regional games, rarely get on TV at all. I guess there's just not that many fans, and that's a crying shame.

Regards,
Trevor

Greatest 3rd Baseman
Anyone who looks at both offensive and defensive prowess as well as his cntribution to team success can doubt that Schmidt was the greatest of all third basemen, althougg Brooksie was better defensively and Mathews was a terrific clutch player. But Schmidt was the heart and soul of the Phillies. 500 homers before the age of the restricted strike zone, the advent of the band box ball field, and the wisdom and modesty to retire before he embarrassed himself all add up to a greatness that transcends modern day baseball. And this from a dyed in the wool Ron Cey fan And who can forget Ron Santo clicking his heels as he ran on the field?


As for ARod, He is undoubtedly a great player. But his defensive output over the last year highlight the fact that he is playing out of position. He may very well out home run Schmidt, but he will never carry a team on his back.
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