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Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Ed Feulner :: Townhall.com Columnist
An Economic Fate We Can Avoid
by Ed Feulner
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It’s not always enjoyable to look in a mirror. But we can learn a lot when we do. Perhaps it’s time for the United States to give it a try.

As the nation’s economy struggles, with new reports of job losses, bank failures and shaky consumer confidence, our mirror should be Japan, a country that’s also battling a fading economy.

In fact, President Barack Obama has already encouraged Americans to consider Japan’s experience a warning. Speaking on Feb. 9 about the recession, he said, “We saw this happen in Japan in the 1990s, where they did not act boldly and swiftly enough. As a consequence, they suffered what was called the lost decade, where essentially, for the entire ’90s, they did not see any significant economic growth.”

But as Asia expert Derek Scissors points out, Japan’s struggles have been going on longer than that. Japan’s been sinking for some 17 years. In current yen (the country’s currency) Japan’s economy appears to have been smaller in the fourth quarter of 2008 than it was in the fourth quarter of 1995. Further contraction is predicted this year.

Scissors notes that some of our biggest problems mirror Japan’s. For decades, the government in Tokyo encouraged exports to boost economic growth. Meanwhile, in recent years the American economic boom has been fueled by inexpensive imports and even imported savings. Much of Washington’s ballooning debt is financed by Treasury bills sold to foreign investors, led by China.

“If the U.S does not fundamentally change its tax, spending and regulatory policies,” Scissors and co-author J.D. Foster warn in a recent paper, “this nation risks replaying Japan’s two lost decades, with all that entails.”

Unfortunately, we’ve already taken a step down the wrong path, by mistakenly copying Japan when we ought to be moving in the opposite direction.

The near-trillion dollar stimulus package Washington passed last month is comparable to the big infrastructure programs funded by Japan’s government throughout the 1990s. Japan is now a country littered with “roads to nowhere,” but all that concrete failed to drive an economic turnaround.

Unfortunately, American leaders such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are already hinting they may throw even more “stimulus” money around this year. There’s a better approach.

The U.S. government unintentionally encourages imports because of its tax policies. Washington maintains the second-highest corporate tax rate among industrialized countries. That makes American companies less competitive and encourages them to move production and even headquarters overseas. That, of course, leads to lost jobs and lost revenues.

Further, the U.S. tax code discourages savings by applying high marginal tax rates on every dollar stashed away. That’s a key reason Americans save less than people in other industrialized countries, and it explains why we need to import so much investment capital.

“Whether it’s Japanese trade surpluses or American trade deficits, large, persistent international trade imbalances are truly unsustainable,” Scissors and Foster conclude. That’s the message our leaders need to hear, so they can change American federal policies and make our economy more competitive.

There was a time, not long ago, when books were written about how Japan would dominate the planet someday. Yet while the country remains wealthy, it can no longer aspire to global economic leadership.

That’s a fate that the United States must avoid. We’ve been the engine driving the global economy for decades. For our own sake, and the rest of the world’s sake, we must retain that role.

A good, long look in the mirror -- and taking the right steps now -- will allow us to do just that.

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About The Author
Dr. Edwin Feulner is president of The Heritage Foundation, a Townhall.com Gold Partner, and co-author of Getting America Right: The True Conservative Values Our Nation Needs Today .
 
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The same ol, same ol, same ol...
Living as large as we can while the uneducated live on charity but too proud to do meanial tasks so several illegals come here to do the work for those on charity and create a charity of their own. Then the Arabs who only want more and more finally broke our bubble with four dollar gas and the whole thing came unraveled. Then of course we did not know we had a foreclosure cancer brewing and it is the result of no change in our lives except spend.

Maybe we will change now....

TownhallPlus.com

Engine Driving the Global Economy?
We WERE the Economic Engine when we dominated Manufacturing. We've been living on borrowed money since OUR ENGINE started to sputter in the 60s-70s. Our wealth never came from Wall Street or from the Government. We were wealthy because we were the only nation making things to sell to the world.

The Japanese briefly held that position, but are losing their position too to the Chinese. The Japanese have a society and a manufacturing sytem that is difficult, if not impossible, to change. Like us, they are stuck with old manufacturing ideas.

We have a manufacturing system that can be changed. We can vastly increase our productivity to complete against low-wage countries. Wonder if someone in a position of authority or power will ever figure that out.

Crucial Omission
One thing I know from experience is that the economy will not just return to what it was. Excesses will be trimmed and redirected to previously unseen opportunities. I was working for a 200 year old corp with the largest direct sales force in 1990. By 1995 that was dismantled and Encyclopedia Britanica went to HSN.
If I were Barak Obama I would put all of my effort into human capital. Instead of worrying about school windows and computers in classrooms I would attack the drop out rate. If he wants to build from the bottom up, he needs to build up the people at the bottom.
We are in the middle of huge demographic shifts from both the retiring of baby boomers and fromm global migration. Economists who ignore that seem inadequate to me. Hugh prison populations, illiteracy, and illegal immigrations are big drags on an economy.

Considering that military might
is dependent upon economic might, we need to start thinking what the world is going to look like when the U.S. is not the lone superpower.
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