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Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Ed Feulner :: Townhall.com Columnist
In Iraq, a "Surge" Of Success
by Ed Feulner
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Are we succeeding in Iraq? Look no further than the front page of your daily newspaper. What had been a steady barrage of bad news has now slowed to a trickle.

Our military’s success on the ground is changing public expectations as well. A recent survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that most Americans (53 percent) now think “the U.S. will ultimately succeed in achieving its goals” in Iraq. That’s up from 42 percent in the fall of 2007.

Why the improvement? We can thank the “surge.”

A little more than a year ago President Bush announced he would be sending more U.S. troops to Iraq. They deployed over the course of several months, and were all in country by June. It was a bold decision. His party suffered a humiliating defeat in the mid-term elections, and the Iraq Study Group had recommended a troop withdrawal. Plus, opinion polls showed the public had soured on the war.

Still, more American troops flowed into Iraq under a new commander, Gen. David Petraeus, with a new counterinsurgency strategy that puts a premium on protecting Iraqi civilians and dispersing U.S. troops more widely to create areas of security. The results have been breathtaking.

In December 2006, there had been more than 1,600 sectarian killings in Iraq. Within six months that number had been more than cut in half. Before the surge, Anbar province was under al Qaeda’s control. “We haven’t been defeated militarily but we have been defeated politically -- and that’s where wars are won and lost,” one Army officer said in the fall of 2006.

That, too, turned around in just a few months. “I think, in that area, we have turned the corner,” Marine Gen. James Conway told reporters after visiting Anbar in April 2007, barely three months into the surge.

Things turned around fast because the surge convinced many of Iraq’s Sunnis to stop fighting the Iraqi government and join us in fighting al Qaeda.

Now, al Qaeda in Iraq has been decimated as a fighting force. Iraq’s interior ministry announced late last year that three quarters of its terrorist network had been destroyed. But all this progress is, as yet, fragile.

“I did run into anxiety among many Iraqi officials about talk of a precipitous American withdrawal from Iraq,” Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., reported after a recent trip to Iraq. “Regular Iraqis on the street see the vital and critical importance of a durable American presence, at least in the near term. And people understand the American soldier, combined with the cooperation of Sunni and Shia Arabs in this country, is the pathway toward stability and a successful free and democratic Iraq.”

This support is critical, because the United States cannot simply wash its hands of the Middle East, no matter how much we might want to. As we learned on Sept. 11, the oceans no longer protect us against the pathologies of a handful of religious extremists.

The U.S. needs to engage Muslims and encourage them to settle peacefully the differences within their faith. We’re seeing that today in Iraq, where Sunni Muslims increasingly are working with Shia Muslims to put an end to violence. This is the best way forward.

It was five years ago this month that the United States led a coalition into Iraq to, finally, remove Saddam Hussein and defend the international law he’d flouted for decades. In the years since, we’ve enjoyed successes and suffered setbacks. Predictably, opinion polls have moved up and down over the course of the war.

But the bottom line is that the surge is working.

“He conquers who endures,” the Roman poet Persius once wrote. That’s true in Iraq as well.

If we press on in helping to pacify that nation and bringing Muslims together to battle al Qaeda and other terrorist groups, we can make the world a safer, more secure place. A worthwhile goal, to say the least -- even if the news doesn’t make the front page.

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About The Author
Dr. Edwin Feulner is president of The Heritage Foundation, a Townhall.com Gold Partner, and co-author of Getting America Right: The True Conservative Values Our Nation Needs Today .
 
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Iraq Surge
My question to General Petraeus:



Are those former Sunni insurgents and ex-soldiers of Saddam Hussein’s Republican Guard fighting on our side because they have seen the light and now embrace the ideals of a free and democratic government akin to ours, or because we are paying them?



If they are doing it just for the money, then there’s no reason to trust them or to think that the Surge is working.



Carlos Navarro

Davidson, NC

michigander
says"

All I can tell you is we've been in Korea for 58 years; we've been in Japan and Germany longer than that. So, yes, I would say the American people will be willing to stay in Iraq for 50 years if that's what it takes to maintain stability.

Not a good idea to use this comparison. Japan or German didn't take 5 years to gain stability. Our soldiers weren't shot at everyday, they also didn't have roadside bombs threatening our troops. Mostly because the Germans and Japanese were united countries. You don't see this in Iraq. Kurds, Shites, and Sunni's competing for power of the country and our soldiers in the middle of this fiasco.

Also its been 5 years, look at what this war has done. Its wrecked our prestige abroad and caused our economy to sink like the Titanic. Can you image what another 10, 30, 50 years will do?

Take a picture from the pretty side
One poster says"

Another major reason why the surge is working is that Muqtada al Sadr has extended his cease-fire for an additional six months.

And how many millions did we pay Al Sadr for the original cease fire and now an extention? Bad news, anytime we payoff our enemies.

Wrong Timing
Mr. Feulner said:

"Things turned around fast because the surge convinced many of Iraq’s Sunnis to stop fighting the Iraqi government and join us in fighting al Qaeda."

The "Awakening", as the Sunni movement against Al Qaeda is called, started in September, 2006, a few months before the "surge" was even announced.

Surge Fact
The International Committee of the Red Cross has issued a new report on the humanitarian crisis in Iraq (pdf). It says in part:


' Five years after the outbreak of the war in Iraq, the humanitarian situation in most of the country remains among the most critical in the world. Because of the conflict, millions of Iraqis have insufficient access to clean water, sanitation and health care. The current crisis is exacerbated by the lasting effects of previous armed conflicts and years of economic sanctions."

Eddie
Um Ed... Petraeus just this week said the relative peace our troop have brought has not been used by the Iraqi gov. to bring about the objective of the surge.

defining success down
Given that we were never going to pull out while Bush is in power, the surge has been a success in the sense that fewer American troops will die while we are waiting for a better policy in Iraq. But when Bush announced the surge, he gave a list of things the surge needed to accomplish to be a success, and by that standard the surge has been an abysmal failure. And the evidence so far suggests that we have gotten the violence as low as the surge can get it, and it will likely drift up (and more than drift up if either the Sunnis or the Mahdi army decide they are tired of waiting for things to go their way without violence).

An interesting story about McCain's trip to Iraq. Last time he went to a popular market and pointed to its safety as evidence things were getting better. He forgot to mention that he could not have made the trip without 100 soldiers keeping threats away from him. It would have been interesting seeing a return trip from him this time, but apparently it was considered too dangerous. The market is now under the control of the Mahdi army, and despite their cease fire, it is still considered to dangerous to put a valuable Americian target where they could get to him.

Here's some news
We are still spending $9,000,000,000 to $12,000,000,000 (that's billions) a month.

Current tab today if it stop today, $1,000,000,000,000 (that is trillion).

The tab by 2017 will be as much as $2,700,000,000,000.00 (that is still trillions).

We are about to break the 4,000 dead solder mark.

30 soldiers die a month. Down from the peak of about 147 in one month. YEA! ?

There are about 20 to 30 thousand wounded soldier, many of these have severe disability and will be on government disability for the rest of their lives. Besides multiple amputees many have severe head trauma.

YEA YEA for the success, lets stay forever!

It is so petty and childish and stupid when conservative pendants Gloat and say SEE THE MEDAIA IS NOT REPORTING IT! (meaning its going so good.)

Well there is some truth that bad news sells. However gas prices, stock market, layoffs, dollar devaluation, US budget deficit.......is distracting.

I BLAME IRAQ AND BUSH'S decision to attack and occupy a country that was not a threat to the USA, with dubious intel or really just obfuscation and lies.


Iraq is WHY our economy is bad and why GAS prices are high and why their is an uprising in Anti-American hate.

We are fighting a wrong war (occupation / civil war) to bankrupcy. Even the GAO head says in about 5-7 years, at this rate, we will be totally bankrupt. FACT DEAL WITH IT.

WHERE ARE the genius Conservatives, fiscal conservatives that are Soooooooooo smart? Iraq is STUPID. Iraq will never be pro West or give us their oil for free, nor can we steal it.

Iraq is good for defense contractors and Halliburton and KBR their spin off. (Did you know Hall and KBR don't pay US tax and moved Corp offices to Dubai!)

Patheticv Progress
Who is credited for the following statements regarding Al-Qaida in Iraq?
"Al-Qaida in Iraq, which did not exist as a coherent group before U.S. troops invaded in March 2003, probably now numbers no more than 6,000, according to U.S. intelligence estimates. It may have been closer to 10,000-strong before the severe pummeling it took last year, when it lost its main bases of Sunni Arab support."
Prior to yesterday the maximum number of Al Qaida in Iraq was reported to be 6000 and in January of 2007 just before the "SURGE" the number reported was less than 2000. So what am I to believe? Are there 4000 more bad guys in Iraq now than before the "SURGE"? When did the number of Al Qaida in Iraq reach 10,000? According to the news reports the "SURGE" has resulted in the capture or killing of about 1000 Al Qaida in Iraq. Does that mean there were 7000 Al Qaida in Iraq in March of 2007?
If the "NEW" numbers are accurate we have 165,000 Allied Troops and 400,000 Iraq Security Forces battling 7000 bad guys for a year and has only managed to eliminate 1000. Now I understand the Generals comment that they will “NEVER” be able to eliminate them all implying US Troops will be needed FOREVER.

Jim Frego

For one thing...
"Are we succeeding in Iraq? Look no further than the front page of your daily newspaper. What had been a steady barrage of bad news has now slowed to a trickle."

I thought the MSM was not to be trusted, so right off the bat this guy is lying. For another, perhaps, just perhaps, the sudden and staggering collapse of our economy pushed the war toward the back. The only thing trickling these days is Bush' popularity rating.

60 Percent Of US Think Iraq War

60 Percent Of US Think Iraq War Was Mistake, Want Timetable

How will this play out in the run for the White House?

USATODAY…The survey finds the 40% of Americans who want to stay the course in Iraq are relatively united — confident the invasion was justified and the consequences of withdrawing too soon disastrous.

However, the 60% who call the invasion a mistake and want to set a timetable to get out are fractured into four distinct groups, a USA TODAY analysis of public opinion toward the war concludes.

They include those who want U.S. troops out immediately and others, like Tease, who argue America has an obligation to improve Iraq’s stability before going. Such divisions have complicated efforts in Congress to force a change in President Bush’s war policy….

READ MORE

http://controlcongress.com/uncategorized/60-percent-of-us-t hink-iraq-war-was-mistake-want-timetable

The cost of victory
Looking back on casualties, we have lost between 1 and 1 1/2 platoons per month since this war began, KIA. Unmentioned are the 2 to 2 1/2 platoons additionally lost as WIA, permanently disabled. We have permanently lost, on average, A company of warriors per month.

Our economy is in shambles, credit is non existent, and we are on the verge of another round of stagflation. More money has been wasted in Iraq then lavished on all the welfare queens of Reagan's myth.

When someone with a competent accountant gets into the White House, expect the troops to be withdrawn and taxes raised.

This idiot talks about the success of the surge.

"A few more victories like this and we shall be undone".

Michigander
"All I can tell you is we've been in Korea for 58 years; we've been in Japan and Germany longer than that. So, yes, I would say the American people will be willing to stay in Iraq for 50 years if that's what it takes to maintain stability."

So where was Japan after 5 years of US occupation? Was there electricity, potable water, sewage systems that worked? Was Japan suffering from attacks on civilians as well as on US military personnel?
How about Germany? Did the US reform, train and arm a national army as well as a police force?

Stay 50 years? The spirit is willing but the wallet is weak. This war has turned this country into a second class country. We'll be lucky until we have to borrow in yuan.

The Smell of Defeat in the Morning
The pessimism in these posts is breathtaking! Regardless of the extent of a victory in Iraq, we can't help but lose with the attitudes expressed here. I don't like the "smell of defeat in the morning."

Peace
Look around Ed. Do you see peace anywhere in the world where Sunnis and Shiites are living together. Sunnis dominate and dictate EVERYWHERE they seek power except Iran and we all should know why that is.

We believe people can live in peace because our CHRISTIAN nation was conceived upon Biblical prinicipals (see wallbuilders.com if you don't know any better) by men under God's authority (not the Church of England, Catholic Church, or anyother CHRISTIAN church). In our naivety, we believed the ex-patriot Iraqis who conned our VP and hence Pres. & Congress into an unjust war. Even Christian pastors were supporting this farce from the pulpit.

The US will ultimately succeed. . goals . . Never. Our goals in Iraq are as unrealistic as our "goals" in Israel.

Ed, you and your ilk are like the prophets of old (Jer. 8:ll). Our own country is split down the middle. See Silencingchristians.com.

The results have been breathtaking. .Oh really. How long have you and your family been living in Iraq? How are your children doing in school? Where do they play after school? Is it safe to go to church? How many of your friends and family have been killed, kidnapped, tortured in the past 6 years? Are you afraid to go to the market? Can you feed your family? Is your bakery/business safe from vandals and murderers? How breathtaking indeed.

If your organization is so brillant, tell us why we have been so patient with leadership in Iraq that seems to only want our protection for their continued corruption. What chumps we are. There will ALWAYS be 3 very distinct factions in Iraq. Who are we to judge that they must get along together. Just as we were deceived in the beginning of this mess, they are playing us again. Shame on us.

And why in all that is reasonable and just do we still have troops in Germany and Korea? at what cost to our country in dollars and good will?

God help us. Shalom




Jerabaub
If the war were the only issue facing americans I think you would probably be right about McCain. But it is goingt o be hard to watch billions of dollars poured into that rathole every month while americans lose their homes and jobs. I think the next election is going to have alot to do with the length and depth of the recession/depression. \also, up to now MCain has campaigned pretty much as a one-trick pony, other than the war he has just indicated that he plans to keep everything the same as the last 8 years.

I don't think that will win many votes.




It is unlikely
that the improved security in Iraq has anything to do with the surge so much as it is the result of putting sunnis on a payroll to keep the peace, at least for now. It also seems pretty clear that the "peace" will last so long as we continue to pour money into their duffle bags, a situation which could keep us there for years and years.

We are not buying peace, we are just stalling for time.

McCain surge.
The "surge" is working, thanks in part to American funding of $300 per month to 88,000 Sunni insurgents who a year ago had been targeting our forces.

They now target Al Qaida.

So, yes, it is good news.

Another major reason why the surge is working is that Muqtada al Sadr has extended his cease-fire for an additional six months. Shia militias were causing most of the deaths.

The surge has taken what had been a catastrophic failure of the Bush administration and turned it into a more manageable "negative". Americans still don't think the campaign was worth the cost. And I doubt that perception will change.

But the surge has turned a catastrophe into a mere negative. So it is good news.

The bad news is if the economy worsens, which seems more likely than not, Bush will not only be blamed for that, but Americans will question why so much money is spent on Iraq at a time when our own economy is worsening...especially when it was not Iraq that attacked us.

And while they can't vote against Bush, they can vote against his heir-apparent, McCain.

But the really good news is what Jeremiah Wright did to the Obama campaign, or, more correctly, what Obama's incredible lack of judgment did to Obama.

And with Hillary's high "negatives", the election now is probably McCain's to lose.

Don't get me wrong. I ain't a fan of what Bush is doing on Iraq.

But I am reading the tea-leaves here. And this benefits McCain.

Do I hear an "Amen"?

The Surge is Helping - But No Success
There is no disputing that the surge under General Patreus is making military and security progress. But this is a relative success. We are down to 2005/6 levels of violence. SO although there are improvements, it is still not safe, especially for Americans.

But is the calm what we think. Are the insurgents just laying low? We do not know.

But the people here at TH so conveniently forget that the purpose of the surge was to bring some security so that a political process can take place. This is not happening. The political leaders are not able to reconcile their differences. This is as quoted by Patreus himself.

So praising the military for doing their job is fine, but it is not enough. Until there is political reconciliation, the surge is not a success.

chaka zulu, you wrote in part:
"Senator McCain is right. We will be in Iraq 50 years at the least. But will the American people be willing to stay that long?"

All I can tell you is we've been in Korea for 58 years; we've been in Japan and Germany longer than that. So, yes, I would say the American people will be willing to stay in Iraq for 50 years if that's what it takes to maintain stability.

Spinning the War
Ed Feulner can spin the so-called success of the “surge” all he wants. The fact remains it will take more than defeating al Queda to pacify Iraq. There are more than a half dozen armed groups and militias that have to be dealt with. The Shite cleric Maqtada Al-sadr and his Mahdi Army have not gone away. Anti-American Sunni militias we are bribing not to kill us still want us to leave. Armed criminal gangs taking advantage of the lawlessness control the streets. Fundamentalist groups, Shia and Sunni, are still hoping to set up their Islamic state, violently if need be. Senator McCain is right. We will be in Iraq 50 years at the least. But will the American people be willing to stay that long? Those on the Right still insist upon pursing this war in spite election defeats, public opinion, and continued troop deaths and casualties. Bring back the draft and increase taxes to pay the trillions of dollars the war is costing. Bring the pain and cost of this war to the American people instead of isolating the battlefield. As someone put it: “America is not at war. The Marine Corps is at war; America is at the mall." Chaka Z.

Even Hollyweird gets it now!
Want more evidence? Angelina Jolie, the UN ambassador for good will, went to Iraq as cynical as anyone else in her profession. Her statements on her return were in direct opposition to what's spewing from the Left Coast as a whole. The proof is that NOBODY is talking about it. At least not outside of Fox News and the NY Post.

Angelina may have just shown she does have a few working gray cells after all.

-Ray
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