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Wednesday, June 03, 2009
Donald Lambro :: Townhall.com Columnist
Numbers Don't Add up for Obama's Health Plan
by Donald Lambro
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Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


WASHINGTON -- Nearly four weeks after President Obama met with health-industry officials touting a "watershed" cost-cutting agreement, the goal of slowing the sharp rise in medical-care spending is elusive as ever.

*** Special Offer ***

Appearing with executives of six industry groups on May 11, Obama announced what he called a "historic" and "unprecedented commitment" by the medical-care industry to "cut the rate of growth of national healthcare spending by 1.5 percentage points each year" that would yield $2 trillion in savings over 10 years.

The story got front-page play and nightly news coverage across the country. However, after American Hospital Association president Richard Umbdenstock returned to his office, he was besieged by calls from AHA members opposing such large cuts in spending. Days later, during a conference call with 230 members, he told them that the 1.5-percent-a-year savings touted by Obama was a gross exaggeration.

The agreement with the White House to slow the growth in healthcare costs had been "spun way away from the original intent," Umbdenstock told his members, according to an account on the Politico Web site and other reports. "There has been a tremendous amount of confusion and frankly a lot of political spin," he said.

"It's been spun -- or misunderstood -- that these six parties would save all $2 trillion. Not true. We can't do this. We don't represent the whole supply side of the equation, and we can't do it without the American public being involved on the demand side of the equation," he said.

Instead of 1.5 percent a year in cost savings for the next 10 years, the groups had agreed to cut expenditures by up to 1.5 percentage points over 10 years, not by that much each year. That meant that the healthcare groups had agreed to a much smaller reduction in future healthcare costs that would add up to only a small fraction of the president's imagined $2 trillion savings.

Annual healthcare spending is estimated to grow by an average of 6.2 percent a year over the next 10 years to $4.4 trillion by 2018, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.

Needless to say, reports of AHA's revision of what Obama announced did not get the same front-page coverage as the original announcement. A few newspapers ran stories (on the inside), and several blogs wrote about it.

The White House seemed unsure how to handle the contradiction in Obama's original story and Umbdenstock's charge that the agreement had been exaggerated beyond its original intent.

Nancy-Ann DeParle, White House Office of Health Reform director, "said 'the president misspoke' Monday (May 11) and again on Wednesday (May 13) when he described the industry's commitment in similar terms," The New York Times reported on Friday, May 15. But then DeParle "called back about an hour later on Thursday (May 14) and said: 'I don't think the president misspoke. His remarks correctly and accurately described the industry's commitment,'" the Times reported.

Days later, after testy discussions that went back and forth between the White House and the six healthcare groups, the organizations issued a statement, saying, "We are committed to working together to bend the healthcare cost curve." But no details were offered as to how the cost savings would be achieved.

"This thing looks like it was thrown together as a photo-op event. They made claims for $2 trillion worth of savings over 10 years that had no credible basis in econometric analysis," said Robert E. Moffit, director of the Heritage Foundation's Center for Health Policy.

"When the photo op took place, they spoke in terms of generalities, like standardization of forms, use of health-information technology and administrative simplification. Unless you have some kind of detailed explanation of how the initiatives would be implemented, there is no way you could arrive at such a figure," Moffit told me.

Then on Monday, the health-industry officials took another stab at the elusive cost-savings figure that Obama sought from them, but apparently they still fell way short of the White House's goal by several hundred billion dollars.

The groups identified several general areas for savings -- from vague administrative efficiencies and standardizing claim forms -- which they said could total $1 trillion to $1.7 trillion in a decade. But they did not say how much the savings would accrue to the government instead of the healthcare system at large. Also missing: any annual percentage.

Each group offered its own proposals but did not say how much they would save because they didn't know.

"Clearly, this cost-control plan was not well thought through and reflects the administration's difficulty in finding a way to pay the $1.5 trillion price tag on its health-reform plan," said Grace-Marie Turner, president of the Galen Institute, a healthcare-reform group.

Obama hoped to bankroll his plan with his cap-and-trade energy taxes and placing limits on mortgage interest and charitable deductions, but both of those proposals are dead. A value-added tax, a national-sales-tax idea, is going nowhere, either.

Between the failure to find specific, measurable savings and attainable tax revenues, prospects for Obama's healthcare plan are looking kind of shaky right now.

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About The Author

Donald Lambro is chief political correspondent for The Washington Times.

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Guess that show's
just how the spin doctors will go to make O-man look good. Even to the secretary lying twice to make it seem that the health companies had agreed to the savings he quoted she then lied again and said he misquoted! Does his cabinet ever stop lying? From errant taxes to his promises of transparency and then closing the doors on the immigration reform to all outside ears it goes on and on!!! I guess he's protected from truth in advertising right?

Excuse me,
that was the White House office of Health reform Director, not a secretary. Hey, I could get a job as a spin doctor for him! No wait, I still have this problem with honesty!

Libs Are Wrong! - I

Especially, will and lilly.

I have told you before that the spending and the printing of dollars by the Federal Reserve are both unsustainable and neither of you believed me.

Well, now the first evidence is coming in that bears out what I have written.

Gasoline prices are up over 19 cents in 2 weeks.

Yields on 10 year bonds and 30 year T-bills are way up because the government must make them pay enough to attract investors.

The dollar is plummeting.

The Chinese laughed at Tim Geithner and Obama need $1.9 trillion dollars before the end of October to fund his new spending. The Chinese are not interested.

Geithner has admitted to monetizing the debt, which will cause hyperinflation.

And, what does Obama and the Democrats do?

They want to hire another 47,000 federal employees AND

Enact universal health insurance, which will lead to higher unemployment, rationing, and fewer scientific breakthroughs.

Plus, he is considering a 25% VAT on all consumer purchases.

Income tax rates will be:

If you are in the 10% bracket, you will see your tax rate increased to 25%.

If you are in the 25% bracket, your income tax rate will go to 67%.

For those in the 35% bracket, taxes rates will mushroom to 88%.

And, the income tax revenues will still not pay off the deficit and national debt.

Good grief! Even the Washington Post, no Conservative newspaper, agrees with me.

Libs Are Wrong! - II
"The Social Security Trust Fund" doesn't exist. LBJ started raiding Social Security during The Great society and it will be bankrupt in 2016

"The Medicare Trust Fund" doesn't exist and Medicare will be bankrupt in 2017.

"The Medicaid Trust Fund" doesn't exist and Medicaid will also be bankrupt in 2017.

"The Highway Trust Fund" does exist and will be bankrupt in August.

The Automotive Task Force does exist and it full of people without automotive experience. The head of the ATF, Brian Deese, is a 31 year-old Yale Law School dropout with no economic, business, manufacturing experience. He did work for two "Think Tanks," including one funded by George Soros.

I can't wait to get a look at the who's who of the Healthcare Task Force!

If you still TRUST Government, you are a fool.

Saving health care costs not possible...
...until we go to a single payer plan. All these sham meetings with all the wrong people are doing nothing to help reduce costs, and nobody is convinced. Single payer must be the way to go, and the sooner Obama and Congress recognize it and move in that direction, the better.

foxylady

Have you ever looked at the socialized medical programs in Europe and in Canada?

All are rationed, with long waiting periods, bureaucrats that make the medical decisions, and denial of medical care and drugs.

Further, in the EU for instance, the average growth rate in GDP is 1.9% because of their entitlement programs and medical systems.

In Canada, if you want a MRI, you can either come to the US or go to a veterinary clinic.

Look at WHY health costs so much!
Why doesn't anyone look for the source of costly healthcare? The list includes but is not limited to: the cost of medical school + the cost of the board exam + the cost of malpractice insurance, which for one specialty can be as high as $500k per year even without any discrpancies! + overhead which includes employees (which includes people hired specifically to make sure insurance companies pay what they are contracted to pay!), office space, utilities, phone service, answering service, hospital dues, continuing education, accountants, and the list goes on. After all of that, we get into the people who feel that the physicians make enough money so they should not be required to pay their bills, or they are UNABLE to pay their bills, or some will get money from an auto carrier and SPEND IT without paying their bill, and the illegals (and many legal visitors) who are seen as emergencies, having high cost surgeries and returning home without paying a penny, and I could go on and on. If the general public knew how hard it is to get money from ANY healthcare plan, especially government run, they would think twice about wanting a single government run healthcare plan! And the reimbursement from the current government run plans are ridiculous for the amount of work and liability the doctor takes on. If we go to a national healthcare system, who is going to pay the malpractice insurance and other overhead? And just so you know, the physician's abiltiy to treat his/her patients the way they know is right will be regulated by criteria set by non-medical persons and national averages instead of individual personalized care.

Nothing adds up with Obama
We should just know that things won't add up with Obama, as described here http://theblacksphere.blogspot.com/2009/05/obamas-fuzzy-jo bs-math.html A FUN read!

The best way
to reduce the cost of healthcare - and everything else - is to remove all the taxes from it. Replace the hundreds or thousands of existing taxes with a single efficient tax levied on living persons for each level of government. This will reduce the price by one-third (1/3) immediately.

The reason healthcare costs so much.
Three other reasons for the high cost of healthcare in the U.S.

1. The cartel known as the American Medical Association limits the number of accredited medical school slots, and thus the supply of doctors. (If medical school slots had expanded as much as law school slots in the past 40 years would we have more, or fewer malpractice suits, or how many people went into malpractice law because they couldn't get into medical school?)

2. The structure of employer provided insurance gives no incentive to the consumer to control demand.

3. This is really related to number 2 above, but the need for, billing experts to code bills submitted to insurance companies to maximize return to the health care provider. This practice resulted in employing individuals by both the insurance and healthcare providers, whose role it is to negotiate and contract rates of reimbursement. Bottom line is that the more people with their hands in the healthcare pot, the bigger the pot has to be.

This would all be alleviated by
1. Increasing the supply of doctors by expanding the number of accredited medical school slots.

and

2. Change the nature of health insurance to return most of the responsibility for payment to the patient, through the establishment of tax deductable health savings accounts, and "preventative/catestrophic only" insurance coverage.

I lived in South Korea for several years, which has a pay as you go healthcare system. You could get a wide variety of levels of service from ultra cheap (open bays with curtain dividers) to inexpensive (by U.S. standards) private or semiprivate rooms in hospitals. They spend a lot less on healthcare as a percentage of their income.

The U.S. has not had a true free market healthcare system for a long time. The solution to the problem is to move toward the free market with consumer pay, instead of away from the free market with government pay.

Kevin in Mo.
thanks for the bog tip - Kevin Jackson is funny and the visuals are hilarious.

The figures are going to be far worse
The reason the UAW is pushing gov health care is so they can dump their private coverage and save their butts financhially. When they have this government plan set up how many more private companies are going to follow. Most will have to to save money because in the not so distant future the dollar will be absolutely worthless.

Yet, with the biggest coup in world history taking place under our very noses in our own backyard, we gleefully cheer on this fascist everytime his face shows up to read from a teleprompter or live the high life on broadway.

God help us all.

To St Denis
Re your 2:29 post, you name me then cite a dozen economic issues on which I have never posted. I try to stay away from subjects I don't know anything about. You might try it.

Heres what we do know.

Everytime Liberals say we need to invest in something now to reduce costs later they end up being wrong.

In 1964, 4 million Americans were without healthcare so we started medicaid & medicare. Today we now have 40 million Americans without healthcare. A ten fold increase without a ten fold increase in population. Healthcare costs going through the ceiling.

Liberals said children should not be without healthcare so we started CHIP and more recently the S-CHIP programs with no co-pays. Now we find out inner city moms would rather go to the emergency room then make an cheaper appointment with a family doctor and then actually show up on time at the doctor's office. They prefer to go to an Emergency Room where treatment costs are higher to the tune of millions of dollars each year.

Liberals said kids can't learn if they are hungry at school.

We started the school lunch program and grades declined, drop out rates increased, costs went up.

Liberals said we need recreation and education programs for people convicted of crimes.

We then began high school diploma and college diploma programs behind bars and crime rates went up. Prison population at all time highs. Gang violence behind bars up. Costs going through the roof.

In 1978 when 30,000 americans were believed to have HIV, Liberals said we shouldn't track or quarantine but should educate people about prevention. Today we have 3 million americans afflicted with HIV and the pain and suffering of HIV is affecting millions of american families. Costs are going through the ceiling.

So clearly Liberals have a very bad track record and should not be listened to.

Why should the numbers have to add up?
Obama and his cronies do not have to pay for it.

NOTHING ADDS UP IN THE OBAMA
administration except Socialism.

Repeal the laws of economics?
Obama wants to reduce Government spending on health care. Why should individuals who get their coverage independently of government reduce their health care? Health care providers are in business to provide these services, not to reduce them.

According to the laws of economics, Obama's choices are a) to ration health care, b) deny health care services they deem "cost ineffective" regardless of whether they are better or not or c) implement price controls for doctors and hospitals. These options will result in worse health care.

There is a better choice, and that is to get government out of the healthcare welfare business, something it shouldn't be involved in. If government provides healthcare, why not food, shelter and clothing - all are needed to live. Suggesting government provide healthcare, is to suggest government run our lives - and we'll be as prosperous and healthy as the communists.

I say those who support government healthcare, move to North Korea and enjoy theirs. I don't want you taking away my freedom and health.

One thing drives down prices while...
... raising quality and increasing options. That one thing is competition, or what Adam Smith called the invisible hand.

If you really want lower healthcare costs and better healthcare, remove or reduce the regulatory shackles and open the free market to do its magic. The results may not be perfect and some may even end up worse off, but generally, everybody will have a personal stake in keeping their health care costs low and searching for alternatives and the besat quality of care they can afford. Providers will have to innovate or reduce prices to compete.

In the specific case of healthcare, there is also an argument for tort reform that would have a large impact as well. The trick is to adequately compensate true victims of fraud and negligence without turning honest, but unfortunate outcomes into a lottery for trial lawyers.

Dan
"There is a better choice, and that is to get government out of the health care welfare business..."

Amen bro!, that's a good reason to never vote Republican again. The Republicans are unrepentant Socialist and corporate welfare-istas.

It was the Bush administration and the Republicans who added the $50 billion a year Medicare Prescription, Part D program, while absurdly claiming it would only cost $40 billion a year.

When someone in the Congressional Budget Office wanted to inform Congress that the program would really cost $50 billion a year, the Republicans fired him.

This additional spending program was a handout to the pharmaceutical companies, on the backs of the American taxpayer.

A year later, President Bush campaigned about the looming crisis in entitlement spending. What a joke, this just after the Republicans had tacked on yet another entitlement spending program, paid by dumping the entire cost onto the national credit card.

Do you think an American should be able to shop for drugs in Canada or

Zapdodat
Bush was off by a whole ten billion? How dare he? I mean that's what O-man is spending per day in office! It was in our paper the other day that O-man is spending about 10 billion a day! Now who did you say was the spend thrift?

Off course the numbers don't add up.

They didn't add up for FDR either. No matter, Obama like FDR will get the votes and another generation will get the bill.

John McCain calls it "Generational Theft".

Liberals call it compassion.
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