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Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Donald Lambro :: Townhall.com Columnist
From Bad to Worse: Obama's Math Doesn't Add Up
by Donald Lambro
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WASHINGTON -- Even economists who agree with Barack Obama that we need another stimulus are questioning his exuberant predictions that his spending plan will produce or save 3.7 million jobs.

That number was contained in the upwardly revised job-creation figures that economic advisers Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer came out with this week in an effort to boost congressional support for Obama's costly stimulus package amid growing skepticism that it will work.

But buried in the news accounts of the new, hard-to-believe estimates -- or ignored altogether -- was a caveat that Bernstein and Romer slipped into their memo to the president-elect: "It should be noted that all of the estimates presented in this memo are subject to significant margins of error," the two advisers wrote.

They also warned that there's a limit to how much money the federal and state bureaucracies can effectively dish out to public-works projects in the two-year time frame that Obama has set to have a significant impact on the recession.

His advisers have justifiable reasons to be leery of their own numbers. Other economists, even those who believe another stimulus is needed, are questioning Obama's huge job numbers and the availability of shovel-ready projects that can begin putting people back to work.

"There's not enough shovel-ready (projects), so to speak. I'm skeptical of how you're going to do that in a two-year period," UCLA Anderson Forecast senior economist David Shulman told the Washington Post.

At the same time, budget analysts are beginning to voice similar doubts about the economic viability of dumping more than $500 billion into public-works projects and the long-term harm a looming $2 trillion deficit could do to the credibility of the dollar, the bond market and our financial system.

Even moderate fiscal watchdogs who see the need for some additional stimulus now question whether Obama and the Democrats are using the recession as a ruse to unleash the big-spending plans that eight years of Republican rule have prevented them from making.

"When we are talking about an $800 billion package on top of a $1.2 trillion deficit, it is necessary to draw a distinction between what constitutes stimulus and what is business-as-usual government largess," said Maya MacGuineas, the fiscal-savvy president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, in a statement last week.

"If we think about massive deficit spending as medicine for a sick economy, we also need to recognize that too much medicine can ultimately kill the patient," MacGuineas said.

"Almost all economists agree that we need stimulus, but overlooked is the fact that almost all economists also agree that the country's long-term finances are completely unsustainable. We have to tell the world how we plan to pay for this," she said.

Indeed, the threat of monster deficits stemming from Obama's FDR-style experimentation with large amounts of borrowed money is beginning to sow growing doubts about the size and cost of his proposal and the risks it poses to America's fiscal stability.

"We have to be careful that we don't do things which aggravate significantly in the out years this country's fiscal strength," said New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg, the Budget Committee's ranking Republican, in a major Senate speech last week that warned lawmakers to proceed with caution.

"And what is very critical is that, as we address trying to get the economy going by using a stimulus package, we've got to be very careful that we put in place programmatic activity that doesn't add to the long-term debt of the nation," Gregg said.

But the Democratic-run Congress, at Obama's urging, is getting set to spend another $350 billion to bail out businesses and mortgage holders who bought big, expensive homes they couldn't afford. Then it will follow that up with an $800 billion spending bill to pay for Obama's Spend Our Way Out of This Recession plan.

That will add $1.15 trillion to this year's projected $1.2 trillion deficit in the space of a month, and they're only getting started. Democrats have a long line of other social-welfare spending bills stacked up in the Capitol that they are itching to pass in the coming months that President Obama, presumably, will sign.

Do the math. The January-February spending spree alone will push the deficit to about $2.35 trillion. The federal government this year will rake in about $2.3 trillion in tax revenues. Obama's government will be spending way beyond its means.

Then throw in the fiscal tsunami that is fast approaching when 77 million baby boomers will soon begin showing up at the Social Security offices around the country demanding their Medicare and retirement checks.

"We're talking about $60 trillion coming at us. That's debt coming at us, and that doesn't count the debt we're putting on the books today to deal with this economic slowdown," Gregg told his colleagues.

George Bush's numbers and GM's bleak financial conditions will look like the epitome of probity and frugality by comparison.

That raises this frightening fiscal question posed by Maya MacGuineas: When will too much medicine kill the patient?

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About The Author

Donald Lambro is chief political correspondent for The Washington Times.

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The Teeter will Totter
If you step back and actually look at what is about to happen, you couldn't be blamed for running away in stark terror. The expectations that are being heaped on the Obama presidency are so high and so completely unstable that it cannot sustain its own weight.

At some point and I believe that point is upon us, this whole cardboard cutout, make believe fantasy world of the government spending us into prosperity is going to crash in a very horrible way.

The only thing good to come out of it will be in not having to endure the smug, moral superiority attitude of the liberal mental midget morons.

DanNV
While you are correct in your assumption that the Obama/Pelosi/Reid prescription will likely wreck the economy, I doubt that the news will quiet the left-wing folks of whom you speak. They'll just blame it all on the current administration and call for more spending...with the knowledge that the economy is not their prioirty, it is the solidifying of their power.

"Significant margins of error" eh?

"It should be noted that all of the estimates presented in this memo are subject to significant margins of error," the two advisers wrote.

Yeah, like 3.7M jobs, plus zero and minus 10 million.

We'd pull through okay if Washington DC got nuked. Otherwise we are going to be in a world of hurt. Meddling idiots.

That many just to FIX GOP Damage !

3.7 million jobs?
NO PROBLEM!


=====================

Start with our CRUMBLING highways for starters.

What was the last BushCo estimate?

1 of every 7 miles of roadway DON'T PASS INSPECTION.

1 in 4 bridges should be CLOSED as SUBSTANDARD.

Or was it the other way around?

-------
Hey, now that the Democrats put such a LARGE SPOTLIGHT on the GOP backed oil speculation scan and oil prices are down.........
MORE petrochemical "bang for our buck" in roadway dollars!


Lone
Do you have any idea how much asphaltum (a petro-chemical) goes into a single mile of a single lane of roadway?

Charles, SO WHAT! WHO CARES?
Your remark is just INEPT!

THE ROADS HAVE CRUMBLED UNDER GOP RULE AND NEED FIXED, NOW!

PLUS...

Asphalt road surface is the most widely recycled material in the US, 80% of it is reused.

++++++++++++++++++++++++=

Try and find a REAL COMMENT that makes a bit of SENSE.

Social Security and Medicare
In response to Lone, our highways will become miniscule problems when the Baby Boomers start drawing the Social Security and Medicare dollars for their care. The substandard care they will receive will become bigger problems in comparison to the highways and bridges that will REQUIRE maintenance after being repaired. How will the states maintain them? TAX US!!! The Baby Boomers will be taxed into poverty, and Generation X and upcoming generations will become poor over being overtaxed. The Congress is just dumping their pork on us. The Rooster Who Saved the Day had the robber say his greeting for the day so the morning sun would come up, and refused to hear him. We need to do the same-refuse to hear the Congress' excuses, and see the morning sun come up!!

Response to Lone
The roads will not be the only thing crumbling, how about our budget?

DanNV
Do you happen to remember who has been in the WH for the past 8 years and who controlled the entire Congress from 2000 until 2007?

Or do they all get a free pass in your pass-the-blame game?

Response to Dan NV
The Congress for the past 4 years has been Democratic, and President Bush tried to warn the Democrats about the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fiasco! The entire mortgage mess has been a fiasco that brought the house down. I do not think any Congressman gets a free pass at all.

Wrong Candace
The Congress was controlled by the GOP until after the 2006 elections.

Obama's numbers have never added up
Unfortunately, Obama and the Democrats are using this bad financial crisis to expand their programs and government. This debt worries me a great deal, because we are going to undervalue the dollar to an all time low if we keep borrowing. Big government does not work! I happen to know quite a few people from Europe and they will you tell big government does not work. Too many countries in Europe constantly have a 10% unemployment rate, and I believe Sweden was around 17% back in the 90’s. Moreover, FDR’s the New Deal didn’t get us out of the depression, but his programs are still hurting us today. What we need to do is buckle up, cut taxes and try to expand businesses. This is the best fix to this financial crisis.

Also, this recession is not just the working of Republicans. It was Clinton, who expanded home ownership for the poor and Dodd and Frank were in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s pockets.

Tom and Dan NV
From 2000 to 2006 the deficit increased by $2.6 trillion. The Republicans overspent and were rightly kicked out because of it. Now, in the two years the Democrats have been in charge the deficit has grown by $2.4 trillion before all of this mess came about. So, in one more month, by Obama's own figures the deficit under the Democrats will increase by almost $5 trillion or twice the amount in Bush's first 6 years. The figures about were taken from the U.S. Treasury website.

Deficit
We continue to plunder the treasury to keep the public from having to go back to being financially responsible and live within their means. We don't even think about the generations yet to come who will have a lower standard of living because we are loading them up with debt that they have no say so in. We have done a poor job in planning for this countries future and this loan instituiton infusion is only to get everyone back on the borrow and spend merry-go-round. It is the exact model that the government uses. They borrow money in huge amounts that they know will never be repaid in their lifetime thereby sticking future generations with the bill for our wastefulness.

Doesn't Add Up?
Kind of like Treasury Secretary-nominee, Tim Geithner's original tax returns.

Hello to HYPERINFLATION
The Republicans spent like drunken sailors during 2001-2006. The Democrats then upped the ante during 2007-2008. Now we're faced with an Obama-Pelosi-Reid Triumvirate (the "axis of OPRah") which will spend three or four times more! (Not counting Obama's likely Afghanistan folly.)

When Congress starts passing additional strict environmental regulations and fees, the economy will sour even more. America will, in total, be producing fewer goods and services. At the same time, Obama will be printing money like crazy to fund his foolish programs.

What happens when you have two trillion more new dollars chasing fewer goods and services? INFLATION. Who will inflation hurt the most? The low-income people who thought Obama would be their saviour.

Along with inflation will be increased unemployment. What businessman in his right mind will expand operations when Obama is stuffing carbon taxes down his throat and doing everything else wrong to cause consumer spending to tank?

Obama's "stimulus package" will do nothing but give freshly-minted money to union supporters, through construction projects and school upgrades. Sorry, but the NEA members don't need new espresso machines in their teachers lounges, and the bridges could be rebuilt for a lot less with non-union (and non-mob) labor.

What should the feds do to help the economy? NOTHING AT ALL... and do that as quickly as possible!

http://www.colony14.net

It's a good thing...
...all that big yellow heavy construction equipment gets tremendous gas mileage, or Al Gore would oppose the stimulus package!

Jobs
All the American people need is good paying jobs. When you send millions and millions of good paying jobs out of the US what in the hello do you think is going to happen to the economy?

Voodoo Math?
Does anything of Obama add up?

Who was it that popularized the phrase "voodoo math" in a prior Presidential campaign?

Yeah, right, we are well past the campaign now. So it is past time also for things of Obama to start adding up.

H20skier
Are you saying that the Bush policies are not responsible for most of what is going on right now?

Do the math!
The Democrats' proposed stimulus plan runs to $800 Billion (assuming they don't lard it up with pork for that Party's many special interests). Pres.-elect Obama was saying it would save 3 million jobs (2.4 million in the private sector, 600,000 in the government). P-E Obama's economists have now revised this upward to 3.7 million. (No clue as to whether they were pressured to get better numbers.)

But $800,000,000,000 spent to save 3,700,000 jobs works out to $216,000 _per_job_saved!

Another way of looking at this is to observe that the U.S. has roughly 100 million households. So $800 Billion could just as well be spent by sending an $8,000 check to every household in the country. Now _there_ would be a stimulus!

(Or maybe not. In the U.S., we, the people, _are_ the government. So that $800 Billion that comes from the government will, in fact, come from we the people. We'll only be receiving our own money. (Minus, of course, a small fee to have Washington transfer it from our right pocket to our left. Have to pay for the Shipping & Handling, ya know.))

But then, siphoning the working man's money into the bank accounts of the government bureaucrats is what phony Liberalism is really all about, anyhow.
What fools we mortals be.

Memo to Tom in Wisc.
You seem to have some confusion on the branches of government and their duties. To be simplistic, #1 is the Executive Branch, which is, of course, the President and Vice-President. #2 is the Legislative Branch, which is Congress. #3 is the Judicial Branch which is the court and legal systems. Where your confusion seems to be is with #2. Congress controls ALL spending programs and priorities. Spending bills originate in the House of Rep., then move on to the Senate, Not from the President. He can recommend, but the bills do not originate from him. The President can veto a spending bill but it can also be over-ridden on this veto by Congress with a 2/3 majority vote to over-ride. Yes, I know it is complicated, but very fascinating. All citizens should understand how this works. Yes, I think the current administration spent too much, but actually the Democrats took control of Congress in 2006, which was the beginning of our fiscal catastrophe. Prior to that period, the US had 57 months of unparalled growth, even counting 9/11. It is all in the public records. Look it up.

Memo to Judith from MN
First of all, I have no confusion at all about the duties and responsibilities of the three branches of government.

But you do seem to be confused about how our mid-term elections operate. You said that the Dems took control in 2006. I had previously indicated that the GOP was in Control of Congress until 2007.

You are incorrect.

The mid-term elections were help in Nov. of 2006. Those elected took office in 2007, and that was when Pelosi was voted Speaker of the House. This is standard operating procedure.

It is fascinating but not really all that "complicated" as you said.

However, considering that it took your state about two months to simply count the votes in a recent election, we will give you a free pass.

Judith
Just noticed that you are actually listed as from MI. My bad.

But you still get the free pass based on your state's terrible economic situation. :)

INCENTIVE PACKAGE
INCENTIVE PACKAGE:
The notion of "Stimulus Package" has been grossly overworked. There exists zero evidence big projects; Saw Mill River Parkway, George Washington Bridge, Empire State Building, or the Grand Cooley Dam formulated what would be determined to be "Economic Recovery". Did those unionized workers ignite the manufacturing sector or hold steady affordable commodity consumer production stimulation and pricing?

The gimmacks that came from the Grand Old Ivy types failed miserably until World War Two when Victory was the grand national incentive covering all segments of the economy.

The Clinton Bubble was a computer in every pot, the Bush Bubble was a home in every pot, and the Obama Bubble looks to be a doctor in every pot when the true solution is for the government wizards to get off pot. They smoke their own LSD laced ideas gobbled up by the economic genies with degrees in journalism.

Pay workers gross (Zero Withholding)one month and see what happens, pay workers gross another month and see what happens, do it a third or fourth time in a year and see what happens. Demand based on real incentives will shoot through the roof with worker production and awards holding down inflation.

Dan from NV
OK, maybe I was wrong about the control of Congress, but I am not wrong about the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fiasco that the Democrats brought about during that time frame. Maxine Waters, Barney Frank and Chris Dodd all contributed to this mess during this time.
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