About the time the DNC's memo was being circulated, a study by two academics ripped the Democrats' specious claims asunder. "Our findings show that no matter which party has the edge in nomination contest turnout, there is no resultant advantage in the general election for that party," writes Leonard Williams, a political science professor at Indiana's Manchester College, and Neil Wollman, a senior fellow at Bentley College in Massachusetts.

Going back several decades, the learned duo found no partisan advantage between primary turnout and the outcome in a general election, a rule that "holds true regardless of the region of the country examined and regardless of the time period studied."

"We are not trying to make any prediction about what will happen this year. What we are trying to do is test the conventional wisdom that we've seen in a number of news accounts that higher turnout for the Democrats is an indicator that they will win in the fall," Williams told me. "Our study shows, well, maybe, but don't get your hopes up. There is no necessary relationship between the two." he said.

The DNC also points to the estimated 3.5 million new voters recently registered, including voters who "are changing their party registration to participate in the Democratic primaries and caucuses" as further evidence of their party's growing strength. But Gans says, "I don't trust that figure. I don't know what it means in terms of population growth and a whole series of other things" that won't be clear until later in the year.

It was once believed that higher voter registration and turnout was bad for Republicans and good for Democrats, but that superstition has been disproved as well.

Still, Gans cautions that "there is a correlation" between recessions, the belief that the country is on the wrong track, and election turnout. With skyrocketing gas prices and higher food costs, "I would be shocked if we did not have a higher turnout this fall," he said.