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Monday, December 10, 2007
Donald Lambro :: Townhall.com Columnist
Bank on an Improved Economy
by Donald Lambro
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The administration harbored political motivations as well. No one wants to head into the 2008 elections with thousands of home foreclosures roiling the economy, which would hand the Democrats a deadly issue to use against the Republicans.

As for the larger economy in all of this subprime-credit turmoil, well, it is still growing, despite forecasts of its decline. U.S. manufacturing expanded last month as a result of increased orders. The Institute for Supply Management, an industry trade group, said its manufacturing index was at 50.8 last month. An index below 50 points suggests contraction.

"Manufacturing continued to grow during November, a trend that is now in its 10th month," ISM reported.

A survey of the Business Roundtable's top corporate executives found that they expected sales, capital investment and job hiring to remain at current levels and even improve over the coming months.

Other signs suggest that the economy is weathering its housing troubles. The Labor Department said that worker productivity continued to rise, thus lowering business unit costs, which should help lower inflation, which should help the Fed to cut interest rates again.

The news on the jobs front was encouraging, too. A report from ADP Employer Services, which tracks hiring, said businesses last month added 189,000 jobs to their payrolls, triple the number forecast by economists.

Meantime, oil prices have fallen, the stock market was sending signals of a year-end rally, U.S. exports were growing at a healthy pace and fixed-mortgage rates were dropping, a sign that homebuyers will begin to come back to the market next year.

The central economic signs, contrary to the doom and gloomers, are fundamentally sound. As financier J.P. Morgan once said, "Anyone who bets against the American economy will lose."

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About The Author

Donald Lambro is chief political correspondent for The Washington Times.

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Lambro's Cheerleading again

"The Washington Post, in a story about the administration's mortgage-relief plan, reported last week that, 'Lending, which had boomed for years, ground to a halt.' That has been the myth reported ad nauseam...

"Bloomberg financial news service said last Wednesday: 'Mortgage applications in the U.S. jumped last week by the most in more than three years,' according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, 'led by a surge in refinancing as long-term interest rates dropped to two-year lows.'

"That doesn't sound like the mortgage business has ground to a halt or even slowed to a crawl."

Is Lambro so dense that he doesn't understand that these two statements do not contradict each other? The Post quote was quite clearly providing background (look up the article). And since the current credit market squeeze dates to July, it's certainly possible (and, in fact, true) that mortgage lending effectively stopped for a time.

In mid-August, when mortgage companies were failing and stocks plummeting, many lenders were simply unable to raise the funds they needed to finance mortgages. Jumbo loans, those larger than $417,000 that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are statutorily prohibited from purchasing, were practically unavailable. Even now, many lenders are not offering jumbo loans.

"President Bush's plan is merely an extension of the housing industry's preliminary, voluntary response in an effort to halt the growing fears wreaking havoc with our financial markets and, potentially, with the economy at large."

If it was a Democrat's plan, you can bank on the idea that Lambro would be lambasting it as an unnecessary interference by the government in the market.

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2-Did illegals contribute to the bubble?
Contractors basically had the gas pedal to the floor, earning as much money as they could in a cut-throat competition, to earn as much as they could while it lasted until the car crashed, which has caused permanently lower wages, and short term impossibility of getting a job in those trades that we will have to live with for God even doesn’t know how long in the future, until they start building again. Had this pedal to the metal mentality been restrained by more realistic labor market forces of fewer legal US citizens demanding a higher wage, would having a limited supply of US workers with high wages extend the waiting time for new houses would this have slowed the crash, and the higher wages for US workers caused higher price for the houses would have attracted less foreign money and money from US investors using this as an alternative to wall street after Enron and others destroyed confidence in investing there, and how many people are owning houses for reasons other than it being their home driving the investment in real estate less would these conditions have been less of a factor in driving the market? Now we have a bunch of houses so expensive the laborers who built the houses can’t afford to live in them at the slave labor wages they earned to build them, and the illegals just follow the carrot to wherever someone will offer them a slave labor wage. But all I have is my perspective.
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