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Monday, March 19, 2007
Donald Lambro :: Townhall.com Columnist
Subprime shakeout just a rough patch
by Donald Lambro
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No one can know for sure what the precise impact of the subprime-mortgage-market collapse will be, but it is not going to deeply affect the long-term growth of our overall economy.

The reason: Our economy is too big, too resilient and its fundamentals too strong to inflict any long-lasting collateral damage to our economic infrastructure.

The number of subprime-mortgage bankruptcies and delinquencies is no doubt substantial, as last week's industry data survey showed, and we don't know how deeply that could dig into the larger mortgage companies. But reporting on this story, which rattled stock markets here and abroad, left out the financial context in which all this is occurring.

The subprime market's bubble burst -- as many predicted it would -- at a time when the economy overall was on solid ground. Corporate profits have been spectacular overall, small-business growth has been strong. A low unemployment rate (4.5 percent) has pushed total employment to nearly 150 million (the highest in our history), and wages have continued to rise.

Wall Street's doom and gloomers, who see a recession around every corner, are myopically focused on trade deficits, budget deficits and the housing downturn, while ignoring both United States and global economic growth.

Somewhere in this story it may be a good idea to remind Americans that economic growth, as measured by the gross domestic product, increased by a robust 3.3 percent rate last year, and it will likely be in that range this year, too, said Fed chairman Ben Bernanke.

He is not alone in that forecast. Bear Stearns economist David Malpass, among others in the financial markets, said he expects "solid economic growth" this year and he thinks the housing slide and the subprime-market fallout won't be the disaster that hysteria-mongers predict -- for a number of reasons:

"The 2006 decline in housing starts and the shakeout in subprime mortgages came at a time when real interest rates were low and liquidity high, limiting their damage," he said in a recent economic analysis for Bear Stearns clients.

"We expect consumer resilience to continue in 2007, helped by job and wage growth. We don't think housing, which we expect to remain weak for several more months, has as big an impact on the consumer as the consensus view," he added. Another reason why the economy's foundations are not in danger of cracking is its sheer strength and size. The subprime shakeout is a story measured in millions and billions in an economy measured in tens of trillions.

Malpass pulled together some breathtaking statistics to give us a better understanding of the economic landscape in which the subprime story is playing out.

-- The Federal Reserve Board recently released its "flow of funds" data showing the breadth of the nation's household balance sheet in the fourth quarter. It showed household net worth rose to $55.6 trillion. Financial net worth increased to $28.8 trillion.

"Rather than 'running on empty,' it shows brimming U.S. liquid assets in both the household and corporate sectors. Household net worth in December was 7.4 percent higher than in December 2005, with financial net worth up 8.1 percent," he said.

-- The Fed estimated corporate profits rose to an annual rate of $1.67 trillion in the fourth quarter. That's up by nearly 20 percent over last year. Recessions happen when profits are plunging or at least stagnant. Quite the opposite is happening.

-- Fed data reported continued high levels of household and corporate liquidity. Notably, it showed that, at $28.8 trillion, U.S. households "have more net financial assets (savings) than the rest of the world combined." This "contradicts the negative savings-rate assumptions which underlie many of the recession outlooks," he noted.

-- The jobs picture remains strong -- 9.5 million new jobs created since 2001. Malpass thinks the jobless rate will fall below the current 4.5 percent, "helped by solid economic growth, especially among small businesses.

The gloomy numbers coming out of last month's economic activity data, showing a downturn in consumer purchases, were in large part to due the nasty winter weather that engulfed much of the nation. But that will turn around with the improved spring weather.

Measuring our economy's health on the basis of one month's numbers is a risky business. Consumers buy in cycles, which decline when they pause to pay their bills, before plunging into the stores again.

That is what's happening in the housing markets, too. After a record-breaking housing boom, the industry is in a period where it must reduce its overbuilt inventory before new housing starts later this year when interest rates may be a bit lower to lure homebuyers back into the market.

In short, the subprime-mortgage problems have caused some turbulence in the stock markets. But we'll get through this rough patch, as we always have before.

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About The Author

Donald Lambro is chief political correspondent for The Washington Times.

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Real Estate ReFis fuel the economy
The Housing market does not stand alone. Prosperity is ours only as long as appraisers can continue to look themselves in the face as they mark up housing values. Theirs is a simple task. They have to find comparables from PAST sales to justify new values and get paid.

Banks encourage this and the amount of real negative equity increases. Those that have developer loans on their books look favorably at the conversion to home loans, which they can peddle to agencies and securitize, getting rid of their risk.

The Real Estate Industry exists on a wing and a prayer. And the secondary market.

The fewer the ReFi the slower the economy.

Sub-prime loans
What have you been smoking?

Dream on
Well... this probably depends on where you live. In a market where appreciation of prices has been realistic (e.g. St. Louis), this probably is true. In the suburban DC area, I could see prices tumbling 40% from 2004 levels. Wage growth there has not kept pace with price appreciation and there is a real affordability problem.

Commercial real estate has a similar overpriced/overcapacity problem and is due for a serious correction.

I've been saying this for 3 years and I'll say it again - on the coasts, I wouldn't touch real estate with a 10-foot pole. In the midwest, things probably are OK.

Mad_Mike,
You might want to make an exception for the Detroit Metro area.

---

Clearly, credit was too loose. Someone I know closely bought a $600,000 home with a borowwed downpayment, on less than $50,000 in income. I assume he had an interest only mortgage with an ARM. Now, if home values keeps going up at 15%/yr, then in two years he'll have 30% equity. No problem. But as soon as he got his loan I knew a shakeout was coming.

Demand for interest-bearing mortgage backed instruments helped drive the supply of loans, and a steady upward trend in housing prices made lenders less risk-averse. As the value of bad loans are repriced, investors may be hurt, but the underlying assets still exist.

If national production is not impaired, then national income should be okay too.

It's another industry "bailout"
Hold on to your wallets people. Sub-prime lenders are about to take it in the shorts due to their own poor business practices. Enter the lobbiests, the campaign contributions, and the predictable shtk about having to save the "economy" from recession. It's all about bailing out the lending industry under the guise of helping the little guy. (I wrote about this last week) http://drilldown.townhall.com

It isn't this year that is so bad
We are doing good. But as Bernanke warned Congress. We are in the "calm before the storm."
Check out the spending chart from Heritage Foundation for spending from 2000 to 2050. Note the black line that represents tax revenues even with tax cuts removed (bad idea since it would actually make things worse unless they get better tax reform like Ireland used).
http://www.heritage.org/research/features/BudgetChartBook/charts_P/p5.cfm

The other problem is the weakening dollar. Subprime lending is just another symptom of many greater problems. Check out our lagging care for infrastructure on the Financial Sense website.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2007/0310.html
quote:
the American Society of Engineers have issued several reports, and what they said is that America's infrastructure is crumbling. For example, aviation they gave a D+ in terms of gridlock on America's runways. It’s eased from crisis levels early in the decade due to a reduced demand and recent modest funding increases. However, air travel and traffic have reportedly surpassed pre-September 11 levels. Airports are facing challenges of accommodating increasing numbers of regional jets, and new super jumbo jets. Bridges are given a C rating. Dams are given a D rating. Since 1998 the number of unsafe dams has risen by 33% to more than 3500. Drinking water is getting worse. They give drinking a D-. America faces a shortfall of 11 billion annually to replace aging facilities, and comply with safe drinking water regulations.

Energy – our power grid has fallen to a D. They're talking about the transmission system is in urgent need of modification; growth in electricity demand and investment and new power plants has not been matched by investment in new transmission facilities.

Hazardous waste a D. Navigable water ways – and you're talking about barge and the nation's river systems – has fallen to D-. You know, we're right next to F, John.

Public parks are C-.

Our rail system in this country – they are listed here for the first time since World War II – limited rail capacity has created significant choke points and delays. This problem will increase as freight rail tonnage is expected to increase at least 50% by the year 2020. So rail is down to C-.

Roads are D; schools are D. Security an I. Solid waste systems, or recycling systems, a C. And transit systems are D+; and waste water D-.
===========================
From the time Saddam started selling oil in euros until we took over and returned sales to dollars, the dollar lost 24% to the euro. After that, other nations saw the damage it could do and have been moving away from the dollar and now the euro is 60% higher. From 83 cents when Saddam showed the way, it is today $1.33. That means everything we buy from Europe or any nation tha that has rising Currency (China only about 7% higher so far) costs more and reduces the buying power of every paycheck.

The shake out from the lending is not the dollars in the loans that count. It is the rising interest payments of the ones not in default that are dangerous too. For every point the ARMS rise and they have several more increases to go due to limits caps had placed on the move and frequency, the spending by consumers is cut.

We were and are running on deficit spending not just by government but by consumers. The depression they are worried about will come from less spending by consumers, not the sup-prime loans themselves. They are a blip. The loss of buying power by rising interest on ARMs isn't just a blip because it is carrying over to other loans and restricting those loans which means people will have less to spend.

Still, it might be reversed but then add the costs of higher taxes if Congress acts on Social Security admin. request to increase taxes 16% on S.S. or reduce benefits 13% immediately and to at the same time, increase Medicare tax 121% or reduce benefits 75% immediately. That is from the Governments own web site.
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/trsummary.html

Then we have the problem the almost 100% of the growth in spending has been funded by foreign governments and foreign investors buying U.S. debt. That appears to becoming less popular and could mean either raising interest rates and risking a recession or lowering rates to offset lower spending and causing those investors to sell the dollar off causing more inflation.

We have a year or two and then all bets are off. Most analysts aren't too gloomy on this year but starting next year the 78 million boomers start leaving the work force and drawing social security and then at 65 drawing Medicare. Their solution is, of course, immigrate 67 to 100 million depending on what the new immigration reform bill comes up with. That means we need 1/3 more schools, roads, hospitals, prisons, government services, etc. Who will loan us the money we need for all that?
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