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Monday, February 19, 2007
Donald Lambro :: Townhall.com Columnist
Success stories fly under the radar
by Donald Lambro
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With unemployment at 10.2%, what will happen by the end of Obama's first term?



If this is the winter of America's discontent, our troubles are largely overseas where the Iraq war overshadows so many positive, even breathtaking advances here at home.

None of the really good news received much attention last week, at least on the nightly news shows that focused on the war and the vicious Arctic weather that engulfed much of the nation. So perhaps this is as good a time as any to warm our collective hands on what else was happening.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave the U.S. economy a clean bill of health without the usually gloomy caveats. Wall Street remained in the midst of a Bush rally that was pushing the Dow to new records almost daily, fattening middle-class 401(k)s and IRA pension funds in the process. The S&P 500 was trading at its highest level in six years.

Meantime, oil was falling into the $57-a-barrel range, signaling cheaper gas prices, and the federal-budget deficit was dropping sharply, without raising taxes as the Democratic presidential candidates are proposing to do if they win back the White House in 2008.

Bernanke's testimony before House and Senate committees must have been especially welcomed at the White House, as it was by the financial markets here and abroad. The economy was growing nicely, and it would continue to expand at a moderate rate this year and next, he said.

Inflation appeared to be within a tolerable range, too, a stronger signal that the Fed has no plans to raise short-term interest rates that sent a huge collective sigh of relief through the markets and the business community.

Contrary to all the worrying and hand-wringing over the budget deficit from Democrats and insecure newspaper pundits with too much time on their hands, Bernanke said he expected deficits to continue their sharp decline this year and next.

This remains one of the major, underreported success stories of the Bush administration. After all those nightmare scenarios about the nation being plunged deeper into a sea of red ink because Bush had the temerity to cut taxes, well, just the opposite is occurring.

Last year, the projected deficit was essentially cut in half as a result of an explosion in tax revenues from healthier corporate profits, more capital gains and millions of workers being put on the nation's payrolls.

The deficit in the first four months of the fiscal year has fallen sharply "as the government continues to benefit from record levels of tax collections," the Associated Press reported last week. Indeed, tax revenue coming into the Treasury from October through January was up by nearly 10 percent from the same period a year ago.

This was further proof that all those Democratic complaints in last year's election about Bush's tax cuts mortgaging our future were nothing but hot air, signifying nothing. Continued...

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About The Author

Donald Lambro is chief political correspondent for The Washington Times.

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Fergus
For clarification, when I wrote "First, The gains created by the tax cuts are nearly dollar per dollar offset by the increase in the deficit," I am referring (probably too cryptically, I admit) to statements posted on TH by others, including Lame-bro on his Mar 17th 2006 post. He writes, “President Bush has not received enough credit for one very important policy reform: the nearly $2 trillion in tax cuts he pushed through Congress in his first term.” He later states, “But I think Bush's $2 trillion in tax cuts over a 10-year period has to be factored into the spending equation, something his critics refuse to do.

So let’s compare. In six years Bush has added 1.506 trillion to the deficit. In four more years he will have “saved” us nearly 2 trillion in tax cuts. Hmm. Add the future deficits we know are coming, and it sounds like a one-to-one wealth transfer to me.

Ultimately what we are discussing is the Laffer curve. What level of taxation maximizes federal revenue? It is apparent we are near the apex of that curve. When Republicans take office and cut taxes, deficits increase. When Democrats come in and raise taxes, deficits decrease. Under both, tax revenues increase. Under both the GDP grows. In short, neither party pushes us down one side of the curve enough to dramatically impact revenues.

It is not a miracle that revenues went up under tax decreases. The same happened under Reagan. However, look at the deficits posted in his administration. They are among the worst ever in terms of inflation adjusted dollars. This just follows the trend as I have described it above.

Undoubtedly there has been a particularly robust bounce in tax revenue over the last two years, just as you have stated. But can it really to be attributed solely to the Bush tax cuts? That is most likely an oversimplification and a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. Pent up economic activity caused by uncertainty after 9/11 is probably making up for lost time. We were due for resurgence. Never underestimate the power of the American economy. It is almost President proof.

We can at least both agree spending has to be controlled. Under Clinton (I know TH folks...booo...hisss...place your invective here) federal spending increased 10.7% in his first six years. Under Bush, spending has increased 42%. Forty two fricking percent. If you review the previous link I posted, you will see Bush has set into motion dramatic entitlement spending programs that are poised to explode even more on future generations. It is a trait that seems to be consistent in the Bush administration...let future generations deal with it.

All my figures come from the below link:

http://www.cbo.gov/budget/historical.pdf

Derek Leaberry, Limited Focus?
The article was about "Success stories flying under the radar". So the omission of what in the country is in decline is by design. Otherwise is would have had a different title, i.e. "good economic news but declines in other areas. Besides it is an article not a book.
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