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Monday, July 17, 2006
Donald Lambro :: Townhall.com Columnist
We turn now to the American economy ...
by Donald Lambro
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WASHINGTON -- We interrupt your usually depressing news to bring you some developments that will give Americans cause to be optimistic about our economy.

I know this runs against the grain of the fear-mongering we have been hearing from Wall Street and the whiners and complainers in Washington, but several things happened last week that suggest this country is definitely moving in the right direction.

The government reports that tax revenues are significantly higher than anticipated, cutting the budget deficit much more deeply than was forecast. Unemployment has fallen to a low 4.6 percent after 34 consecutive months of continued job growth. The economy was growing at a blistering 5.6 percent rate in the first quarter, and the U.S. Treasury reports that total worker compensation (including wages and benefits) grew by 7.4 after inflation during the current expansion.

Not surprisingly, the Gallup Poll also reported last week that President Bush's job approval rating, which has been in the low 30s for months, has risen to 40 percent. That's still way below his peak of previous years, but a sign that he is turning his presidency around in his second term.

Let's take some of these developments one at a time because they fully deserve more attention than they have been getting in the national news media.

The budget deficit: It's big, wasteful and mostly unnecessary, but it's a product of many things, including unanticipated events like Katrina, economic downturns and the huge defense costs in the war on terror. Much of it is also due to excessive discretionary spending and runaway entitlements.

One way to shrink the deficit is to boost economic growth by cutting the tax rates on work, investment and savings -- and that's what is happening in the economy right now, despite predictions to the contrary by naysayers who said the tax cuts would worsen the deficit.

The Office of Management and Budget reported last week that the fiscal 2006 deficit will be 30 percent lower than expected. The new estimate -- $296 billion or 2.3 percent of the nation's gross domestic product -- is on track to fall to $188 billion in 2008 or 1.3 percent of GDP.

The reason: "Overall tax revenues are growing at the fastest pace in 40 years," says Brian Riedl, the Heritage Foundation's budget analyst. In fact, since Bush's tax cuts were fully accelerated in 2003, tax receipts have risen by over 34.6 percent.

These increased revenues are the result of several things going on in the economy since Bush enacted his across-the-board tax rate cuts. More Americans are working and paying taxes, more investors have had capital gains from the sale of assets that have produced much higher cap gains tax revenue (even at the lower 15 percent rate), and more businesses have had higher earnings and thus have paid more in taxes.

Stronger economic growth: We keep hearing that the U.S. economy is slowing down, but too little about how the economy speeded up in first three months of this year.

In a revision of first-quarter growth, the government said the economy was expanding much faster than they had reported -- at 5.6 percent pace, instead of the previous 5.3 percent estimate.

In fact, the economy has been growing over 18 consecutive quarters, averaging 4 percent per year in inflation-adjusted terms. That's far better than the post-World War II yearly average of 3.4 percent.

A brighter jobs picture: The reason you don't hear Democratic leaders talking as much about jobs anymore is because more people are working than ever before. The Labor Department says 5.4 million new jobs have been created since August 2003, producing an unemployment rate (4.6 percent) that is lower than the average rates of the previous four decades.

Critics attacked last month's 121,000 new jobs as anemic, a figure that comes from business payroll surveys. But they ignored the government's separate "household survey" which showed that 387,000 new jobs were created last month. -- following a 288,000 increase in May.

The Wall Street Journal quotes economist Michael Darda of MKM Partners who says the average of the two surveys produces a gain of close to 250,000 in June "which is much closer to the reality of America's very tight labor market."

Thus the biggest challenge in today's Bush economy is finding enough workers, a problem they would love to have in Western Europe where unemployment remains close to double-digit levels.

No one expects the kind of growth we have seen in the first quarter to continue its torrid pace. The Fed's relentless interest rate hikes and the rise in oil prices will slow things down, but I think all this talk of a much cooler economy in the second half of this year has been overdone.

Economic growth rates will be lower but still respectable, barring any catastrophe here or in the global markets. Bear Stearns economist David Malpass says we should "expect solid 3.4 percent to 3.8 percent second half growth."

That's the kind of forecast that should keep the American economy on a growth path for the rest of this year and maybe beyond. Stay tuned.

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About The Author

Donald Lambro is chief political correspondent for The Washington Times.

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"America's tight labor market..?"
I thought labor was our largest import, Made in Mexico.

Oil != economy
The price of oil has nearly doubled over the past 5 years, yet the economy continues to grow. All sorts of "economists" (sorry, Dr. Krugman, but scribbling for the New York Times op/ed page doesn't make you an economist, no matter how many letters after your name you have) have been saying "eventually" bad things will happen because of oil. Well, if a doubling of price of crude isn't enough to shake the economy -- instead leading to a moderation of demand and further demand for alternatives to oil (read: creating more jobs in alternative industries) -- what will?

Free market capitalism has proven itself over history to be fully capable of reacting to the current conditions, evolving over time to adjust for the ups and downs of the economic conditions of the day. Let the price of oil go up, but also let capitalism do its thing. Then we'll see how terrible things are going to be. If there is money to be made, someone will figure out how to make that money, and everyone will be just fine.

economics
as usual a bush ass kisser ignors the facts (i should say all the facts) one reason the economy is increasing is all the money being spent by dumbya

Heh $296 billion budget deficit is good?
Planet bizarro, I suppose our 700 billion trade deficit is good news too.

And we should thank the rich for paying token taxes on the trillions they loot?

Taxes aren't based on GDP, GDP is irrevelent especially when you have no idea how many illegals rich folks have invited here.

The "rich" are liquidating our nation & inviting foreign invasion in the millions, it's becasue the "rich" we have Mexican invasion & billions in debt, we need to execute the "rich" for their treason.

Economy is not great, 296B deficit bad
We're bankrupt: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/07/14/cnusa14.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2006/07/14/ixcity.html

We don't need to thank the rich, the rich are the ones who invited the 35 million tax parasites here, the rich aren't even Americans but foreigners who hold US assets, everything is not OK, we're at the peak of boomber production, we should have record personal income tax revenues, NOT DEFICITS not declining personal taxes!

Taxes aren't assesed on GDP only income over a certain level (less than what it costs to live here).

We're heading the way of Argentina, it'll be interesting to see how our "rule of law" courts will handle our liquidation. Will the courst side with foreigners & law or Americans?

Wanna bet?

Quick commment:

"The Office of Management and Budget reported last week that the [deficit]... is on track to fall to $188 billion in 2008 or 1.3 percent of GDP."

I'll bet $1,000 that the deficit for FY 2008 is more than $188 billion. My guess is that Mr. Lambro won't take me up on this; he likely knows that he's selling a bill of goods provided by the CBO.

NONE OF THE PREVIOUS "COMMENTERS" GET IT
In the past 2 years my business, auto A/C and HVAC, has exploded. Because more people have money in the bank, due to lower taxes, they are spending more money on "comfort items" than ever before. Because I am making more money, in part due to lower capital gains and other taxes, I was able to hire 6 more people so I can continue to provide the level of service my customers are used to. These people pay taxes on their wages as well. They also have more money to spend on the things they need to live, due to lower taxes. They pay taxes on those purchases, thus more revenue for our local, state, and yes, the federal government. If any of you were in business for yourself you would understand the math. My payroll has increased 32% in the last 2 years. Using pre-2003 numbers the amount of taxes I was required to withhold would have been the same 32%. But, because of President Bush's tax cuts, withholding has increased only about 28%. This means more money in my employees pocket, both prior and new, and that is their money to spend, save, whatever, instead of giving it to the government. And, I will not hire illegal aliens. I won't even hire anyone that is not proficient in English. It is too important to my business to have un-educated people dealing with my customers.

Life is good. So, instead of whining about gas prices or the war against terrorism (there hasn't been another 9/11 style attack has there?) get off of Dubya's back. He is doing as good a job as he can considering the Congress and House we now have. People should also think about getting off their butts and do something for themselves instead of boo-hooing. The opportunities are there if they would just reach out and grab onto the golden ring.



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