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Monday, July 17, 2006
Donald Lambro :: Townhall.com Columnist
We turn now to the American economy ...
by Donald Lambro
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In fact, the economy has been growing over 18 consecutive quarters, averaging 4 percent per year in inflation-adjusted terms. That's far better than the post-World War II yearly average of 3.4 percent.

A brighter jobs picture: The reason you don't hear Democratic leaders talking as much about jobs anymore is because more people are working than ever before. The Labor Department says 5.4 million new jobs have been created since August 2003, producing an unemployment rate (4.6 percent) that is lower than the average rates of the previous four decades.

Critics attacked last month's 121,000 new jobs as anemic, a figure that comes from business payroll surveys. But they ignored the government's separate "household survey" which showed that 387,000 new jobs were created last month. -- following a 288,000 increase in May.

The Wall Street Journal quotes economist Michael Darda of MKM Partners who says the average of the two surveys produces a gain of close to 250,000 in June "which is much closer to the reality of America's very tight labor market."

Thus the biggest challenge in today's Bush economy is finding enough workers, a problem they would love to have in Western Europe where unemployment remains close to double-digit levels.

No one expects the kind of growth we have seen in the first quarter to continue its torrid pace. The Fed's relentless interest rate hikes and the rise in oil prices will slow things down, but I think all this talk of a much cooler economy in the second half of this year has been overdone.

Economic growth rates will be lower but still respectable, barring any catastrophe here or in the global markets. Bear Stearns economist David Malpass says we should "expect solid 3.4 percent to 3.8 percent second half growth."

That's the kind of forecast that should keep the American economy on a growth path for the rest of this year and maybe beyond. Stay tuned.

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About The Author

Donald Lambro is chief political correspondent for The Washington Times.

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NONE OF THE PREVIOUS "COMMENTERS" GET IT
In the past 2 years my business, auto A/C and HVAC, has exploded. Because more people have money in the bank, due to lower taxes, they are spending more money on "comfort items" than ever before. Because I am making more money, in part due to lower capital gains and other taxes, I was able to hire 6 more people so I can continue to provide the level of service my customers are used to. These people pay taxes on their wages as well. They also have more money to spend on the things they need to live, due to lower taxes. They pay taxes on those purchases, thus more revenue for our local, state, and yes, the federal government. If any of you were in business for yourself you would understand the math. My payroll has increased 32% in the last 2 years. Using pre-2003 numbers the amount of taxes I was required to withhold would have been the same 32%. But, because of President Bush's tax cuts, withholding has increased only about 28%. This means more money in my employees pocket, both prior and new, and that is their money to spend, save, whatever, instead of giving it to the government. And, I will not hire illegal aliens. I won't even hire anyone that is not proficient in English. It is too important to my business to have un-educated people dealing with my customers.

Life is good. So, instead of whining about gas prices or the war against terrorism (there hasn't been another 9/11 style attack has there?) get off of Dubya's back. He is doing as good a job as he can considering the Congress and House we now have. People should also think about getting off their butts and do something for themselves instead of boo-hooing. The opportunities are there if they would just reach out and grab onto the golden ring.




Wanna bet?

Quick commment:

"The Office of Management and Budget reported last week that the [deficit]... is on track to fall to $188 billion in 2008 or 1.3 percent of GDP."

I'll bet $1,000 that the deficit for FY 2008 is more than $188 billion. My guess is that Mr. Lambro won't take me up on this; he likely knows that he's selling a bill of goods provided by the CBO.
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