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Thursday, August 21, 2008
Dick Morris and  Eileen McGann :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Presidential Race That Hasn't Started
by Dick Morris and Eileen McGann
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Poll
Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


In following a presidential race, the most important way to understand what is happening is to follow voter responses to open ended questions. Those are questions which ask "What do you like the most about Barack Obama?" and "What do you like the least about Barack Obama." These questions, which let voters tell pollsters what they think in their own words offer the best way to figure out what is really going on.

Fortunately, the Fox News tracking polling for the election has now included these questions and the results offer an excellent insight into the current state of the race.

Oddly for a race that has been going on for two years and holds the nation rapt in attention, the contest is still in a very, very primitive phase. Voters' level of awareness of the issues or of the candidates is quite limited. Neither campaign has done much to project its issues or its message and the attacks on one another, which increasingly dominate the dialogue, show little resonance among most voters.

Overwhelmingly, the thing voters like the most about Obama is that he is new, a fresh face, for change, intelligent, inspiring, a good speaker, outspoken, and charismatic. 57% of all voters use one of these phrases to describe him, including 48% of Republicans and 55% of Independents. But only 13% of all voters cite any specific position of Obama's including his signature opposition to the war in Iraq. Only 2% mentioned the war in citing what they liked about Obama and only 1% cited the economy and jobs. So Obama is still a personality running for office and the voters have yet to identify him with any policy or proposal. And the one identification he used to have -- opposition to the war -- has faded. But Obama has vast potential appeal. Even though the Fox News poll gave him only a three point lead over McCain, four voters in five cite something they like about Obama in open ended questions (including 66% of Republicans and 78% of Independents).

Opposition to Obama is also centered on fears of his youth, inexperience, and lack of qualifications. 31% of all voters, 33% of Independents, and 29% of Democrats cited this concern in open ended questions. But just as Obama's positive ratings do not include much in the way of specific mentions of his issue positions, so his negatives don't either. Only 19% of all voters said they disliked his liberalism, connection with Rev Wright, radicalism, religious views, elitism or even said they disagreed with him about anything. Another 8% disliked his flip flops on issues. =2 0But the potential for Obama to fall apart is also enormous. 78% of all voters, including two-thirds of all Democrats and four-fifths of all independents cited something about Obama that they did not like.

So everybody basically agrees that Obama is a new fresh face who advocates change but is too inexperienced and lacks some or all of the qualifications needed for the job. The question of which part of this statement outweighs the other is the issue on which the election hinges.

But just as Obama has not succeeded in identifying himself with any specific issue, idea, or proposal (and voters might be asking, as they did of Gary Hart, "where's the beef?) so McCain and the Republicans have failed to link him to extreme liberalism, radicalism, Rev Wright or any of the identifications they have been trying to pin on the Democrat. Both campaigns have almost totally failed to move past square one on Obama.

For McCain, it's pretty much the same story. 33% of all voters see him as experienced and qualified (including 26% of Democrats and 34% of Independents). 10% like his military record. 7% praise his honesty. And 9% say they approve of how he would handle foreign policy.

But McCain's negatives are the flip side of his positives. 24% of all voters and 26% of Republicans and 20% of independents say he is too old. And another 23% feel he is too conservative, too close to Bush, or too supportive of the war. 4% criticize his flip flops.

So Americans of all parties have reached a consensus that Obama is young, charismatic, intelligent, articulate, and in favor of change but also that he is too inexperienced, possibly too liberal, and less qualified than they would like

And they also have come to a common agreement, also cutting across party lines, that McCain is experienced, able, an heroic veteran, and honest but also that he is too old, possibly too conservative, and perhaps too pro-war.

Just as 80% of all voters find something to praise in Obama and 78% find something to criticize, so 80% have something good to say about McCain and 82% have some criticism to make.

This broad agreement on the pros and cons of each candidate and the willingness of even their partisans to consider their negatives and of their enemies to concede their positives is highly unusual and underscores why the race is so close.

But it also suggests that it is very volatile. Either campaign can paint the other with issue negatives if they start going about it effectively.

It is a glaring omission that only 1% cite Obama's tax positions as a negative and that nobody mentioned his opposition to offshore oil drilling.

Likewise, how odd that only 15% cited specifically McCain's support for the war and his connection with Bush as a negative.

On the other hand, neither Obama's health care nor McCain's energy proposals have registered with the voters and few can name any specific issue position for either man of which they approve.

For a campaign that has been going on for two years, how odd that voter opinions of the candidates are still so unformed and general.

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About The Author
Dick Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race. To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to www.dickmorris.com
 
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Tell them China will drill 4 mi from FL
A vote for Obama is a vote against Bush. Folks I talk to don't really understand the issues. They are emotional occassionally but without real facts. Internet folks are by far the better informed. Black guilt, young voters, national debt and change is what Obama has going. What he does not have going is staying power.

His verbosity is like listening too long to a Coyote yelp at night. Fascinating at first but a little bit goes a long way. You can ever anticipate his pauses and emphasis. It is sort of like he is speaking to a rather dim group of followers. He is speaking to his lessers. Hillary is boring in her fund raising and you can see the incincerity in her face and eyes. He will amaze the world and choose her for VP.

Candor and integrity will win the day and the election. Something that is not in Obama's bag of tricks.
Don Jones
PoeSpirits.com

morris has it wrong agin
to such a high percentage have a positive view of the messiah why is he dropping in the polls.

It doesn't pass the smell test that the public doesn't know the issues the messiah is running on.

But polls are notoriously wrong. My understanding that in order to be polled a land line for a phone is required. Since growing numbers of people only use cell phones they are amongst those never called.

Extropolating a poll of several hundred persons has frequently been wrong in predicting political outcomes. And the idea that there are daily polls discussing the candidates and the issues I find it hard to believe so few people don't know about the most devisive election process this country has ever seen.

But many also say that most voters don't start to tune until after both conventions are over. And many pay little attention until days before the election.

That in mind the real fun and games hasn't started yet. But reports that b hussein has been spending more money to tell the public who he is than mccain is raising does raise the question of what exactly is he buying and what message is being heard. The polls seem to indicate either indifference to the messiah's campaign or those undecided is in the neighborhood of less than 20% of voters and even this number isn't being swayed

Of course they don't know anything.

People get their political information from Jay Leno's quips, John Stewart's unfunny a and misleading attacks, lectures from liberal actors spewing century-old fascist rhetoric playing fictional hyper-liberal characters in TV dramas and movies with liberal fascist themes.

School teachers, blacks, hispanics, "bush lied, kids died" believers, union members, people who buy "organic", losers of all sizes, shapes and smells, malcontents, anarchists, "one-worlders", and assorted violent peaceniks will vote for whatever Democrat Furher is put before them regardless of any stance on any issue -- even if it would radically harm them. And thus, they do not need to know anything about the candidate.

One third of Republican voters will vote religiously for any candidate who is anti-abortion (but not Mormon) even if he would openly say that he would cause the price of gasoline to rise to $100/gal.

Another third of Republicans will vote for anyone who promises to place 1,000,000 troops on the Mexican border and/or if the candidate will use the word "monetarism" in a sentence.

In all of the above cases, the people do not need to know any issues to feel that they know who to vote for.

The 20 million or so informed and rational people listening to Rush Limbaugh and frequenting sites like this one, know the issues and the candidate's stances on them and abhor them all and do not answer pollster's phone calls.

So of course, pollsters are drawing blanks when they ask open-ended questions of people who answer their home phones when the caller ID shows "Private Number".

Our two choices
The statistics that Morris cites are indicative of the weakness of the two candidates that we're stuck with. It also punctuates the ignorance of Americans when it applies to politics. How did we wind up with these two guys as our only viable choices? How does Reid, Peolsi, Shumer, Kennedy, Murtha, Kerry and many other Washington elites continually get re-elected?

IGNORANCE

Hey, Gus - I noticed!
Morris was a big wheen in the Clinton administration. He "got a case of the jaws" against the Clintoons and "worked tirelessly" to defeat Hillary when she appeared "inevitable"

Now, he has BHO and and doesn't know how to defend/support him. "BEWARE WHAT YOU ASK FOR - YOU JUST MIGHT GET IT".

So what does he do? He invents poll rubbish and "nuanced" rhetoric to prop up the empty suit.

Lector or Speaker?
Obama is a good speaker?

Mr. Morris or Mrs. McGann, whichever of the two of you that wrote this article.

Do you know the difference between a lector and a speaker?
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