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Thursday, May 08, 2008
Dick Morris and  Eileen McGann :: Townhall.com Columnist
Hillary Won't Adopt the Huckabee Option
by Dick Morris and Eileen McGann
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OK, so Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) is staying in the presidential race despite losing among elected delegates, facing a slimming lead among superdelegates, losing the popular vote and behind by 2-to-1 in the number of states carried. She slogs on, hoping against hope for a sudden turnaround in the race.

Apart from the psychological reasons for her stubbornness, is there a more subtle political calculation going on?

Is she continuing her race so as to have a platform from which to continue to bash Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in the hopes of so damaging him that he can’t win the general election? Is she doing this to keep her options alive for the 2012 presidential race?

Hillary is obviously entitled to keep running until Obama has secured the votes necessary for the nomination, and it is certainly understandable that she would want to run until the last popular vote is counted. But must she run a negative, slash-and-burn campaign? Must she use her time on the platform and on television to belittle, mock, deride and try to destroy the man who will eventually be the candidate of her own party?

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) felt similarly justified in staying in the race for the Republican nomination until Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) reached the majority threshold required for nomination. He contested the Texas primary vigorously, even though his earlier losses in South Carolina and Florida made it most unlikely that he could win the nomination. But he chose to run a positive campaign. He didn’t knock McCain. He just articulated the case for his own candidacy.

But Hillary won’t avail herself of that option because it does not serve her long-term fallback position: a shot at the nomination in 2012. If Obama is elected this year, he will seek reelection in 2012 and Hillary would have to face taking on an incumbent in a primary in her own party if she wanted to run, a daunting task. But if McCain wins, the nomination in 2012 will be open. And it might be worth having. McCain will be 76 years old and the Republican Party will have been in power for 12 years. Not since FDR and Truman has a party lasted that long in power. When the Republicans tried to do so, in 1992, they fell flat on their face.

Hillary is using white, blue-collar fears of Barack Obama to try to stop him from getting nominated or elected.

She is playing on his “elitism” by hammering him on blue-collar issues and is mincing no words in painting him as a stranger to blue-collar white America.

Hillary is attracting the votes of cops, firefighters, construction workers, union members. Are they in love with Hillary? They can’t stand her. But they are terrified of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers and the various influences to which Obama seems to be subject. By playing on those fears, Hillary is undermining Obama’s ability to get elected.

This is not a byproduct of her continued candidacy — it is the goal. She, the consummate realist, must know that she has no practical shot at the nomination herself after her numbing loss in North Carolina and her paper-thin margin in Indiana. But she welcomes the opportunity an ongoing candidacy offers to bash Obama and to drive a wedge between him and the voters he must have to beat McCain.

The question is how long Democratic primary voters and the party leadership let her go on hitting their ultimate nominee. Will they bring Hillary up short and speak out about the harm she is doing to their party’s prospects by way of her refusal to recognize reality?

Hillary doesn’t have to pull out. She is entitled to run in the remaining states. But she should curtail her negative campaign and adopt the Huckabee strategy: Maximize your own vote share, but don’t beat up the party’s nominee. Unless, of course, that is her goal all along.

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About The Author
Dick Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race. To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to www.dickmorris.com
 
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Obama Damaged Obama
Hillary is in the race because she knows Obama is toast in November. Because of his 23 year association with an anti-American, racist church, America will reject Obama in November. Being anti-white racists is going to finally hurt the Democrats.

Hillary might not win in November but she has a lot better chance of winning than Obama. You will hear her "I told you so's" forever.

Morris flatters Huckabee too much
The difference between Hillary and Huckabee is that Hillary has a possible path to the nomination. Huckabee had no path, it was mathematically impossible for him to get the nomination. Yet he stayed in and only his ego can explain why. He was derided and laughed at because he stayed in. I know because I was one of those laughing.

Hillary still has a chance. The Democratic race is close. Huckabee was never close. IMO, this comparison is silly.

Um, Dick
The GOP held the White House for 12 years in a row starting with Reagan's two terms and GHWB's one term...just before the Clintons came to town. I know that GHWB wasn't mich of a conservative, but he was most certainly a Republican!

And why shouldn't Hillary keep on running and running hard? Her job at this point is not to polish Obama's image, but to make him unpalatable to voters so she can win now. I know you no longer like the Clintons, but for gosh sakes man, let it go! They fired you because you became an embarrassment to them, and your are heading that way for TH with every one of your articles seeming to be devoted to the destruction of Bill and Hillary. Isn't there something else you could spend your time writing about...like which toenail polish tastes the best?

Lori
Your definition of "mathematically impossible" needs to be revisited. Gov. Huckabee was certainly in an improbable position, but certainly not "impossible."

But go ahead and keep on laughing...

The Clintons are close cousins
of Lazarus and are waiting for a miracle to save them.

It could be MI and FL delegates. She'll go to court in June. She'll prob. pick up Puerto Rico and another Western state by the end of the primaries. She has a good argument that she has carried all the big states except Obama's own IL.
She will maintain that only she can attract the blue-collar and former Reagan Dems. in the general election. But the Dems. will have to go with Obama.

Obama may not be toast in Nov., but a major NJ Dem. pol who worked for Florio and McGreevy says the Dems. are stuck with Obama because blacks are coming out for him up to 90%, and they don't dare diss that constiu4ency, even if it brings electoral defeat.

My professional pol friend believes that whatever pol. persuasion, when people get in that voting booth in November that they will not vote of Obama--regardless of his goofs and corrupt personal associations--because Am. will not vote for a black pres.

Dems. have backed themselves between the rock and the hard place. They have cultivated special interest groups based on victimology and hate for decades and are about to reap the whirlwind.

it says here that
Hillary is quits but won't make it official until the last primary. She will make a good concession speech urging unity yada yada yada and will help campaign for bo. She is already thinking 2012.

1 more thing
Morris' hatred of the woman is obsessive to the point of being scary.

They Wrote The Rules
Do the Clintons have some sort of Ace up their sleeves? It is either that or they know of a way to win that is only known to them. However, they wrote or had great influence on the way the Democrat system is set up now so they will hang around with the hope of stealing the prize.

My guess is they will unleash everything they have on Obama about a week or so before the Democrat convention. Due to some hidden bylaw in the platform any committed delegate can switch their vote if needs be. Since Obama will be so damaged Hillary will be standing there ready to go and will take the nomination.

the other difference is...
that neither candidate is going to have the delegates to win before the DNC

Huckabee knew it was mathematically impossible for him to seal the deal because McCain would have the delegates needed. Thats a big difference.

Sheese
They stay in to garner bargaining chips.

Beyond that, Mrs. Clinton has had quite strong reasons to stay in, aside from the math and the vote counts, it looked altogether possible that Mr. Obama could have been done in by any number of things (like the Howard Dean scream, it can happen all of a sudden). Might still, though looking less likely.

As for Huckabee, he was enjoying the whole thing, the celebrity, the playing whatever it is he plays on TV (guitar?). He wasn't working like Mrs. clinton is. He was playing.

I thought you understood Hillary?
Dick,

Once again I have to tell you that there is NO 2012 for Hillary! 2008 is her last hope for getting back to the White House. She is doing the slash and burn and hoping that Obama will provide some more self-inflicted wounds to make him un-electable in the fall. If, and when, that happens, she expects the Supers to turn on Obama and give her the nomination. She knows she won't be offered the VP spot and won't be viable in the future, so she is willing to go down in flames to win this year.

The Cyclist
I wouldn't be at all surprised if you're right that the Clintons have some kind of "October surprise" on Obama (which they've already hinted at) that they plan to drop in August just before the Democratic convention and hope to peel away the necessary delegates already pledged to Obama that would give Hillary the nomination. The problem is, by that point, since Obama would have already clinched the nomination, even if the bylaws of the Democratic Party fully allow delegate-switching (as I guess they do), if the nomination were taken away from Obama AFTER he has mathematically clinched the nomination rather than BEFORE, the Democrats could kiss off the black vote in November - and not for just this presidential election cycle, either, but for the next several.

Renny is right, even if Obama clinches the nomination before the convention and then something comes out on him that causes the Democrats to have a case of "buyer's remorse", even if there was still time to deny him the nomination at the convention, the Democrats will have to stick with him because they don't dare diss a voting block that gives over 90% of its votes to Democrats even if it means certain electoral defeat in November. Better in that case for the Democrats to throw away ONE presidential election rather than the next SEVERAL. And I also agree with Renny that Obama will lose in November because, regardless of how unhappy they may be with the Republicans right now, there is right now, I believe, still too substantial a portion of the American populace that is just not ready to pull the lever for an ultra-liberal black man for president.

As long as the Clintons still have ANY funds to do so, Hillary SHOULD stay in the race; until the convention, why SHOULDN'T she stay in and who knows what may yet come out to kill Obama's candidacy just in time? What has she got to lose?

Mike
I also agree with YOU: either Hillary gets the nomination in 2008 or else her window of opportunity to ever be president closes for good after this year. As I've stated in previous posts in recent days, I think Hillary has just simply burned too many bridges within the Democratic Party in her attempt to get the nomination this year to be a viable candidate for president AFTER 2008. I think she senses this, too, and that's why she's fighting so hard. Once the American people get a taste of life under a president NOT named Clinton or Bush, a lot of the nostalgia for a Clinton return engagement will fade.

If Hillary never achieves her ambition to become president, in her later years, I'll think she'll look back and kick herself for not having tried for the nomination in 2004. That may well have been her REAL window of opportunity, because that year the Democrats' enthusiasm for her was as high and broad and deep as it's ever been for her and ever WILL be, and if she had pursued the nomination, it would have been hers for the taking: pretty much all political analysts seem to agree on this. Yes, she would have been taking on an incumbent president: but unless she wants to wait until 2016, she's facing that very real possibility in 2012 anyway if she's harboring any thought of trying it again - and I doubt very much she'll be anywhere close to the level of popularity to Democrats by then that she enjoyed in 2004.

Paul should go for veep
McCain needs better cons. bonafides and someone younger on the ticket.

If Paul just goes into the convention to be a spoiler, he has no principles at all.

Morris is not objective..
when it comes to the Clintons. Hillary is positioning herself for 2012 to run against McCain. I do not think Obama is electable, too many questions about his "friends and associates", he is too inexperienced and too liberal. I also think most whites will not vote for a black man for president.

Yesterday's news
If anyone anywhere was ever yesterday's news, it is Dick Morris.

I am so sick of seeing him here and on Fox News. Wish he would fade into the woodwork for 16 or 20 years.

Standshisground,

where will the black voters go if Clinton is the nominee? The black vote is pretty monolithic. Do you think they will leave the Democrat Party? That is what would have happen for the Dems to lose more than the 2008 election.

eddie too
If Obama is cheated out of the nomination - or at least is PERCEIVED to have been cheated out of the nomination - I expect the black voters who have been voting Democrat will pretty much stay home on Election Day, believing that now NEITHER political party cares about their interests, so why bother to vote at all. And I expect that of the ones who DO turn out who have been voting Democrat, a considerably bigger percentage than the slightly less than 10% the GOP has been getting from the black community in recent elections will vote for McCain just to spite Hillary. Dick Morris has been saying that if Obama doesn't get the nomination, it will spark a civil war within the Democratic Party that the party will be fighting for the next 20 years. Haven't some prominent black leaders in the Democratic Party, like Donna Brazile, already said that if Obama is denied the nomination this year, they'll leave the party? If Obama is seen to be cheated out of the nomination, the black turnout for Democrats will be WAY down in November - enough to make the difference in several states. And I think it would be many years, if this happens, before the Democratic Party can woo back black voter support to anywhere approaching its current level.

Title should be the "Romney Option"
Morris has his analogy wrong. Huckabee stayed in the race until it was mathematically impossible for him to win; he stayed in long after it was clear he had no chance to win.

Hillary can still mathematically win. What Morris wants her to do is what Romney did. Romney was ahead of Huckabee and of course could have won mathematically when he dropped out. But for the good of the party and to avoid wasting money on a hopeless cause, he withdrew.

So Morris wants Hillary to take the Romney option. But she is instead taking the Huckabee option -- staying in until it is mathematically impossible to win, which as other posters correctly pointed out, will not be until the convention, because of the superdelegates.

Damaged Goods
Hillary Clinton gave it her best shot. I for one believed she had it in the bag. I was aware of her negatives but was unprepared for the cold shoulder she got from her peers in Congress. Hillary has been bested by a naive junior senator with less than one term in the U.S. Senate, her options have run out.

The election for the presidency of the United States in 2008 will be a contest of the candidates the media created. Barack Obama, a media creation, has no credentials for the job. John McCain is a slick job of media manipulation.

The election for our nation's highest office has been reduced to nothing more that a marketing strategy. It is perpetrated by opportunists like Dick Morris. I suspect that Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States, a manifestation of packaging and sloganeering.

Some folks get it, unfortunately, most folks will buy the snake oil hawked by political hucksters, in it purely for their own self interest. I conjure a vision of Dick Morris as one who meets the criteria.

Whats the problem
I think her strategy is Spot On!! If I was running against Obama I would go for his jugular!!! Go For It HRC, give it to him!!!

Dick, I agree
Can you email this directly to her desk laptop and mark it urgent!?

Uncle Max
I wouldn't say Dick Morris has an obsession with the woman. I think it is more like that old song from the fifties...to know, know, know her is to loathe, loathe, loathe her.......

The Voters
Some don't even know who is running yet and what is going on. They don't follow anything.

Come Nov. someone will tell them who to vote for and they will vote for that person, if it doesn't rain that day.

Change will sound good if you haven't been paying attention.

Keep pushin', Hillary
While I agree with Flagwaver (Morris an embarrassment; although Bubba pretty much had no trouble humiliating himself, IMO) and Uncle Max (Morris obsessed), I'm waiting for Hillary to expose Obama as a communist.

During his formative years in Hawaii, O's surrogate father was Frank Marshall Davis ("Frank" in Obama's "Dreams of My Father), an anti-American, pro-Russian member of the Communist Party USA.

His "experience" (as noted here on TownHall, as I recall) was 143 days in the US Senate before beginning his run for prez as the most liberal member of the Senate, not exactly the best qualification for a "uniter"; at least Bush sucked up to Tedward "Get away with murder" Kennedy and named the Justice Bldg after RFK, the guy who instigated the FBI investigation of Martin Luther King (a Republican, BTW), which resulted in the tapes of King's motel room trysts with female admirers.

I would dearly love to see Hillary address the DNC convention and admonish the delegates: "I'm here to tell you that you're getting ready to nominate a communist for President. THAT'S why he won't wear an American flag button. Your nomination of this inexperienced, if fully-propagandized, candidate will mark the beginning of the fall of America."

I'll vote my usual straight-republican ticket (very few republicans are exposed as communists, as this is pretty much the exclusive province of the dems), voting AGAINST dems, not FOR republicans. The lesser of two evils as always.

Go for it, Hillary!

;>)

Conservatives: Don't ask why, just enjoy
Why spend so much time asking why she's doing what she's doing?

It's because she's a narcicist or she's running for 2012 or it's her last chance.

WHO CARES?

The point is, as conservatives, it would be nice to kill these two dodo birds with one stone(pardon me my liberal friends, two endangered dodo birds).

But they are killng each other, or is it more like a murder-suicide?

Hillary knocks b. Hussein Obama around so much he might just faint, along with the groupie "plants" he used to put in his audiences.

And at the same time, she PO's the MoveOn.org nutballs so much they wouldn't vote for her for dog catcher.

WHATEVER WORKS! Let's just all sit back and enjoy the festivities.

Hillary/Obama
I feel that this election John McCain will win the presidency by default.

Hillary and Obama each have quite the following as well as negatives. I don't see Obama followers voting for Hillary and Hillary followers voting for Obama. I do agree that this presidential election will shatter the Democratic party to it's core.

I feel that McCain will last one term. Let's be realistic here, I don't see him being able at 76 to last another four years. Two thousand twelve will be the election that we all should be watching carefully.
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