In Iowa and New Hampshire — the first two tests for the presidential nominating process — Hillary Clinton is faltering badly.
When you average all the polls in Iowa, her lead has dwindled and is now eradicated:
| Hillary vs. Obama in Iowa |
| |
Hillary |
Obama |
Hillary Margin |
| October |
30 |
23 |
+7 |
| First half Nov. |
28 |
22 |
+6 |
| Sec half Nov. |
26 |
28 |
-2 |
| December |
28 |
30 |
-2 |
And, Hillary has suffered an even greater slippage in New Hampshire, where the last poll, by Rasmussen, has Obama ahead by three points. Here are the averages of all the polls for these time periods:
| Hillary vs. Obama in New Hampshire |
| |
Hillary |
Obama |
Hillary Margin |
| October |
41 |
22 |
+19 |
| First half Nov. |
36 |
23 |
+13 |
| Sec half Nov. |
34 |
23 |
+11 |
| December |
31 |
29 |
+2 |
But curiously, Hillary remains in the national lead and her margin has not dwindled appreciably:
| Hillary vs. Obama National |
| |
Hillary |
Obama |
Hillary Margin |
| October |
47 |
21 |
+26 |
| First half Nov. |
45 |
23 |
+22 |
| Sec half Nov. |
45 |
23 |
+22 |
| December |
45 |
24 |
+21 |
Hillary Clinton is tanking and Obama is surging in New Hampshire, gaining a net of 17 points. In Iowa, Hillary is dropping and Obama is also moving up, gaining a net of nine points. But nationally, there is almost no change since November 1. Throughout the country, Obama has gained only five points in three months.
Why the difference?
Obviously, New Hampshire and Iowa are markedly different states with little in common demographically. But, what they do have in common is prolonged exposure to the candidates and to their paid media advertising. These two states have been through what we will all go through before Election Day. They have seen Hillary and Obama campaign day after day. They have watched the candidates — with the advertisements on television, heard them on radio and have focused on the more intensive news coverage they are receiving in the local media. The conclusion is inescapable: the more voters come to know Hillary Clinton the less they like her and the more they get to know Barack Obama the more they like him.
In the abstract, Hillary is a captivating idea. The first woman to run for president, she is the living reminder of the better economic times and international peace of the Clinton administration. But, up close and personal, she is far less attractive. As the rest of the country is exposed to the former first lady, if they emulate the voters in Iowa and New Hampshire and revise their opinion of her, the results will not please the Clinton camp. Continued... |