Clinton 11%

Biden 6%

Dodd 1%

Again, caution, this is not a scientific poll of anything, but it does serve as a warning indicator that Hillary may be alienating the left in her bid to stay close enough to the center to win in the general election.

To finish in fifth place among leftist activists - behind Richardson and Kucinich certainly isn’t a good showing for the Democratic front runner.

Obama and Edwards were the top choices, and one of them will likely get the support and endorsement of the group. That will be worth a lot because of their organizing and fund raising abilities.

Good News for Edwards

While other candidates have been getting more media attention, Edwards has been quietly building a lead in Iowa. Virtually every poll shows him in first place. And, in New Hampshire, he and Obama are tied for second place behind Clinton.

He's still in the top tier and can't be ignored.

Edwards' second place showing in the Moveon.org vote, a few points behind Obama is also interesting. Obama’s indication on the Letterman show that he would likely be satisfied to vote for a war funding bill without a withdrawal schedule but with fuzzy language about the need for a political and diplomatic solution to the war may alienate the Movon.org crowd. That language won’t appease the left by a long shot. The Moveon.org vote indicates that Edwards might be ideally positioned to move to the left of Hillary and Obama over the war funding issue and pick up even more support.

Obama and Hillary both face a crucial decision when the war funding resolution comes to a vote. If they vote for the fuzzy language compromise that Obama appeared to endorse on Letterman, they open the way for Edwards. With his domestic message of protectionism and anti-globalism not selling, Edwards could become the anti-war candidate and get back into this race if the two front runners oblige him by shooting themselves in the foot over the war funding resolution.

What Makes Obama Gain?

Obama's fund raising success and his growing standing in the polls begs the question: Why is he moving up?

The key reason is that he is the opposite of Hillary Clinton. He not only gets the votes of anyone who doesn't like Hillary, he benefits by the contrast with her.

In fact, Obama's personality and characteristics might be dull and boring in another time in another contest. He might, without Hillary, be a reincarnation of Al Gore, notable for his failure to keep his audience awake.

But now he excites the voters not just as the first black candidate but also as the opposite of the characteristics we find negative in the former first lady.

He is cool to her hot. He is mellow to her stridency. He ponders problems and issues intellectually while all we get from Hillary is straight ahead advocacy and rhetoric. She is scripted. He appears natural and spontaneous. She comes across and calculating and opportunistic. He seems to be sincere and open.

While she voted for the war, backed it, and now twists herself into a pretzel explaining her past and current positions. But Obama was always anti-war and still is, plain and simple. Most voters think Hillary read the polls before she speaks. Obama seems to shoot from the hip and read his conscience.

Hillary is part of a very old story while Obama is brand new. Hillary's marriage has been the stuff of national news and controversy for more than a decade. Obama’s private life is still private. Hillary left Washington one step ahead of the sheriff carting the White House china with her. Obama has never had a serious brush with ethics (apart from an ill considered land deal in Illinois for which he apologized).

Hillary flaunts her firstness, constantly citing the fact that she may become the first woman to serve as president. But Obama, just as dramatic a first, rarely alludes to it and lets voters draw their own conclusions. Hillary's campaign strategy appears to be rooted in demographics while Obama's is more conventional and is not based on his black support.

It is everything about Obama that seems to contrast with everything about Hillary. And that is his strength.

The Three Dimensional Primary

If, as we suspect, Rudy faces off with Fred Thompson in the Republican Primary and Hillary takes on Obama in the Democratic contest, it's important to see the primaries not as separate and distinct, but as one combined primary.

At least half the states, including California, allow independents to vote in either party primary. With more people identifying as Independents than as either Democrats or Republicans, their presence in the primaries is crucial.

So the fact is that each of these four final candidates is running, not just against his or her party opponent, but against all three other potential nominees. In 2000, for example, Bill Bradley, running for the Democratic nomination, and John McCain, fighting for the Republican nod, both out polled Gore and Bush among Independents. In fact, the only reason McCain was able to win in New Hampshire was his overwhelming support among Independents. Bush beat him handily among Republicans.

In 2000, in a sense, McCain beat Bradley in their unspoken and informal Independent Primary and attracted more Independents into the Republican primary to vote for him than Bradley could attract into the Democratic contest where he was a candidate.

But next year, it may not be a question of which candidate Independents like the most but who they like the least. The primaries may break down into a pro-Hillary and an anti-Hillary contest in which Independents are more concerned to stop the former first lady in the Democratic primary than they are with whether Guiliani or Fred Thompson are the Republican nominee. Since neither of the Republicans incites much antipathy, but Hillary does, it is very likely that lots of Independents will choose to vote in the Democratic primary for Obama so as to stop their bete noire from getting elected.

In some states, even Republicans can vote in the Democratic primaries (and vice-versa). Even dedicated GOP voters might switch into the Democratic primary to stop Hillary.

So each candidate in the semi-finals has to pay attention to the entire field, not just to their specific primary. That will make strategizing this race very, very interesting.