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Friday, June 20, 2008
Diana West :: Townhall.com Columnist
At Last, Common Sense on the Economy
by Diana West
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Will the Dems' health care Christmas Present to America be an improvement or detriment to our health care system?


WASHINGTON -- An unlikely, man-bites-dog story recently appeared on the front page of one of our nation's most liberal newspapers, asserting that the U.S. economy is not as bad as people think.

The Washington Post, a left-leaning newspaper that persistently paints a gloomy picture of the country's economy, even before its descent into the subprime debacle, underwent a conversion of sorts last week. It decided to take a fresh look at the fundamentals of our economy and concluded that comparisons to past recessions and depressions were exaggerated, if not downright silly.

Readers of this column know that I have long railed against the gloom and doomers, while championing our economy's inexhaustible resilience, exuberance and competitive spirit, as well as its ability to recover against any and all challenges. That's why Washington Post reporter Neil Irwin's story last Wednesday came as a breath of fresh air. It's a gutsy, against-the-grain reexamination of the biggest election issue in the country that puts the numbers into a sharper and more honest context.

Under the headline, "Why We're Gloomier Than the Economy," Irwin ridicules the sky-is-falling view held by most Americans that the economy is "not just bad, it is run-for-the-hills terrible."

The polling numbers on consumer confidence are now the lowest in three decades. Gallup's surveys find that the number of Americans who think the economy is getting worse has risen to 87 percent. Liberal Democrats, Wall Street critics of the administration and economic bloggers on the Internet routinely make comparisons to that mammoth economic disaster of the 1930s, the Great Depression.

"But the reality is different. According to the most broad measures of how the economy is doing, it's not all that grim," Irwin states flatly. He's right. Yes, the economy is soft. Yes, the growth rate has slowed. Yes, the financial markets have been rattled by the housing and credit crunch, and the spike in oil and gas prices.

But with everything that has been thrown at it -- the subprime housing collapse, the subsequent credit crunch, skyrocketing oil prices and record fuel costs at the pump -- this economy is holding up much better than it has in previous recessions. Unemployment remains historically low by most measures (far below past recessions) and, all but overlooked by critics, the economy is still growing by nearly 1 percent in the first quarter. To make any serious comparisons with the Great Depression in the 1930s, when more than one-third of the workforce was unemployed and the economy was shrinking, is patently absurd.

As for any comparisons to recent recessions, one need go back to the spring of 1980 when Jimmy Carter's economy was heading south and the unemployment rate had risen to 7.5 percent and inflation was 14.4 percent. The national jobless rate today is 5.5 percent (between 4 percent and 5 percent in many states) and inflation is at 4.2 percent, with the core rate (minus volatile energy and food prices) at less than 2 percent.

The decline in housing values is perhaps the biggest culprit making Americans increasingly pessimistic about the economy. That has fed fear that as relative net worth has declined, so will overall consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy. But it doesn't affect it at all, as Irwin aptly notes, citing a study by Wellesley College economist Karl E. Case, who compared spending habits with changes in housing values. Homeowners, feeling wealthier, will spend more as those values rise, but they don't spend less when they fall.

Wall Street economists David Malpass, is a realist with an optimistic outlook who sees economic problems ahead of us as well as, more importantly, opportunities for growth. He worries about inflation through 2009, even if the dollar rises. The impact of tax increases on labor, dividends, capital gains, inheritance and the alternative minimum tax that are due to expire in 2010 is a huge concern, too. Still, Malpass foresees "a reasonably solid global expansion in 2009," noting that the U.S. economy "has an underlying sturdiness" because it is "driven by small businesses and a flexible labor force.

He thinks "the current rebound will have legs and the heavy investments made globally in recent years will pay off." How much of a rebound? Expect 1 percent to 2 percent growth in the second quarter and 3 percent in the second half of the year.

But right now, Neil Irwin's excellent article notwithstanding, Americans remain as gloomy as ever. That mood is unlikely to change anytime soon as long as oil and gas prices keep rising and the Democrats continue to block GOP proposals to produce our way out of this mess. Obama-smitten Democrats still think that Americans are opposed to drilling for more oil in offshore fields and in wilderness areas and that they blame U.S. oil companies for higher gas prices.

But Americans know better. The latest Gallup poll finds that they support such drilling by 57 percent to 41 percent and those who blame big oil has plunged from 34 percent to 20 percent.

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About The Author
Diana West is a contributing columnist for Townhall.com and author of the new book, The Death of the Grown-up: How America's Arrested Development Is Bringing Down Western Civilization.
 
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Trust the Government?
As I read one post that said, I paraphrase, define the economy by what corporations say. My gosh, I would trust what they say over the government everyday of the week. The Cooperation has self-interest in doing well and establishing a truth with the public, and the investor. Government has self-interest to be re-elected by any means possible, which permits "Spin" to glean votes from each person that has a squired view due to ignorance and reading the MSM.

Ropati
Your salary is double, but can you buy twice as much? Don't lie now! Inflation suckz

Reply to tgwWhale
Of course, you are one hundred percent right.

As a libertarian, I believe the free market should be free to choose whatever forms of energy people want to use. The beauty of freedom is that it is also efficient; free people tend to choose energy sources that make sense economically.

I am an advocate of freeing up the approval process for nuclear power plants. The technology is very straightforward and has been used safely for decades. Of course, if the free market determines that we should develop oil, coal, natural gas, and nuclear, then we should allow that to happen. The same goes for so-called "green" sources of energy (wind and solar), though those sources are just too limited to power a modern world economy.

As a libertarian, I often say (stealing a phrase from Ernest Hancock), "Freedom's the answer; what's your question?"

Paolo
You are right about building nuclear plants -- yes, we should be building hundreds of them -- and yes, we should drill for our own oil, but wrong in saying that is all. The great problem we have with energy now is one two-letter word: OR. That is: the libs want renewable energy sources (wind, biofuels), but no nukes and no fossil fuels. The free-marketeers seem to think that we can solve the problem simply by opening ANWAR and the offshore drilling tracts. You think that we can solve the problem with nukes only.

The correct solution is in a three-letter word: AND. That is: nuclear plants by the dozen AND oil drilling all over AND coal liquefaction (we could solve the entire gasoline/diesel problem in a couple of years by exploiting our mammoth coal reserves and off-the-shelf liquefaction technology) AND shale oil extraction AND wind AND biofuels AND AND AND AND AND...

The world's appetite for energy is so huge, with India and China growing rapidly and most of the rest of the world growing at least somewhat, that there is no way we could produce too much energy. AND AND AND AND!!! Remember AND. Forget OR.

AND all of these things would be boons for our hurting economy, which is what Ms. West's article is about.

I only know one thing for sure
My present salary is nearly double my salary five years ago, and I'm still working in the same industry. Tell me how bad I have it.

Lolo1
Someone offered President Chavez a plan which would destroy the Dollar.He refused,saying;Why should I help the Americans.It's that bad.I won't discuss the "Particulars",you wouldn't understand.SORRY...

The reality
is the economy has absorbed the shock of all that has been thrown at it.

Another reality is I think Washington Post is waking up to the market and is learning unlike the NY Times that you can fool some of the people some of the time but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

old progrmr
There is no victory in surrender.

What nonsense
Anyone who eats or drives can feel the gathering economic storm. The lending problems that the banks still refuse to disclose have only just begun. All of the "happy talk" by Wall Street and the government about how we are "in the 7th inning" and so on are just whistling past the graveyard. We are in the midst of a banking panic (have you been watching the stock market lately?) because the global economy is looking more and more like a house of cards built on undisclosed amounts of unregulated debt. It's what we don't know that is terrifying everyone and the fact that the big banks won't disclose the details and size of those nasty off balance sheet investments is sending the worst signal possible. If everything is ok, why all the government bailouts? Why the continuing printing of money at the speed of light? Believe me, the smart money is spooked for a good reason. We are about to witness a few bank collapses and their is growing unease that it might cascade into something bigger than a few banks. The credit default swaps amount to $63 trillion (bigger than the entire world economy of debt, does that scare you?) and nobody has a clue about what it would mean if the counter parties were forced to settle. There is reason to fear and it doesn't help that our entire government seems to be populated by crooked incompetent weasels who can't see beyond November.

Time for a Change
I am beginning to change my mind about the coming election. I must admit that the Dems and the far leftists have won, at least the political battle of 2008. The Dems are the beneficiaries of the most incompetent and worst communcating GOP administration in history. The MSM and the Dem propaganda machines (the very best the world has ever seen, Goebbels would have been proud) have reduced Bush to the most disliked individual ever to occupy the Whitehouse. The disasterous recent GOP Congress committed suicide on the alter of K Street lobbyists and needed little help in their demise.

We independents and Reagan conservatives must accept that the Dems have won this round. The country must pull itself out of this funk and get on with solving the problems in front of us. Our country, collectively, needs a positive view to take action. We do need CHANGE, and, although he is a radical leftist, Obama's election and a solidly Dem Congress can help. The negative propaganda and world markets manipulation will end with his victory and the funk will dissipate. We can only hope that more moderaate forces will keep Obama from implementing too much of his socialist agenda and, with a more positive environment, we can move toward solving our many problems, real and imaginary.

Just look, Spain, France and Germany are throwing off the yoke of many years of socialism and big government which is reigniting their free market economies. We can also recover from 4 years of Obama and his radical friends. In the meantime, we can be rid of the incompetents who populated the Bush admin and that loser GOP Congress.

Reply to "None"
"None" writes:

"What did the Democratic Carter admin do to get us free from middle-eastern monopolization of the oil market? What did Clinton and Mr. Earth (Gore) do during the 90s? What has the Dem-controlled Congress done since 2006 other than cry about Iraq war funding and try to impeach Bush?"

How did you leap to the fantastic conclusion that I am a supporter of Democrats? My post was titled "A Libertarian View."

The point of my post was that Republicans sometimes spout free-market eyewash, with no intention of ever following through on it. My proof lies in the Bush Administration from 2002 through 2006, when the Republicans had control of both houses of Congress, plus the executive. They did NOTHING during this time to free up the economy.

"None," you are suffering from "Bipolar Disorder", a disease characterized by belief in the nonsensical idea that there is a difference between Republicans and Democrats. Both are big-government parties, through and through. The alleged differences between them are just different window-dressings decorating the same house.


Retired Geek
Is your Grandfather your father?I understand, that "Incest" was once a major problem in Virginia.The Republican party has had a war on drugs since Vietnam and today "US" have more and better "DRUGS".It so sad to see an old,bitter person turn into a hate filled "FOOL".So SAD...

Polls
I have participated in several of these polls and the question as asked would always result in a negative response due to the current political situation.
Question:
Do you feel that you will be better off in the coming years than you are now?
Answer:
No - but left off of the equation - if we continue with liberal philosophies of tax and spend I see that I will have less of what I work for to use for my own use, so no, I don't think I will be better off when considering with current political climate, we will be ruled by the tax and spend consortium.

True tax reform
We the people pay all taxes, and we are the sole ultimate source of all tax revenue. Regardless where government initially collects the money, all tax money ultimately comes from us, the people, even though business has to pay thousands or millions of dollars at one time, and get it back from us one dollar at a time.
Since we the people are the one and only source of all tax revenue:
There should be only one tax to collect all tax revenue.
It should be a single, simple, fair, direct, graduated, individual, full-income tax levied on living persons for each level of government: One Tax and Done.
The best thing that government can do to help the country, the people, and even government, is to repeal all of the many hundreds, or thousands of existing taxes, fees, and charges. These taxes are the federal deficit. These taxes are the high price of everything. These tax eliminations are spending cuts. Every tax that is eliminated is a tax that we the people no longer have to pay. These taxes are the difference between the price we pay for health care and everything else, and the price we would pay if these taxes were repealed. Eliminating these taxes will remove them from the price paid for everything by everyone, including government.
One Tax and Done will provide many benefits to all, even government:
One Tax and Done will end government-caused recessions because governments would cut off their only source of tax revenue.
One Tax and Done will stop reductions in tax revenue because people reduced their use of water, sewage, and other governmental services.
One Tax and Done will reduce the price paid for everything by one-third.

Democrats and Baby Alex
Democrats have been funding and sending 'troops' to the Democrats "War on Poverty" for over 40 years now with no end in sight.

The Democrats "War on Poverty" is an abject failure and there has been hundreds of thousands of casualties.

The Democrats "War on Poverty" built 'Government Crime Centers' to concentrate those they are at war with that even the police are afraid to go into.

These Democrat 'Crime Centers' produces illegal drug distributors, killers, prostitutes, child abusers, hundreds of thousands babies killed through abortions and tens of thousands of rapes.

The Democrat funded 'War on Poverty' has succeeded in increasing poverty, crime, drug addicts, 70% illigitamcy rates and the highest prison population in the world.

Democrats want to increase funding for their own 'personal war' and leave the bill for baby Alex to pay for it.

Economics 101
It is common knowledge that the American public has no knowledge of economics 101. They think the economy is sinking when the company they work for is having difficulty; however, businesses have always had downturns and they go broke all the time. That is perfectly normal because business leadership is and always has been notoriously incompetent.

They think inflation is raging because they are paying outrageous prices for gasoline, but I notice very little price increase in what I generally purchase other than in the case of some food items that I don't have to buy unless I want to.

The theoretical value of my home now makes no difference to me since I am not interested in selling it. But even if I were selling it, home prices in my area are holding firm or going up because I live where Jerry Jones is building the new Cowboys' football stadium and Arlington is booming big time. The real estate markets vary greatly from region to region in this country and even within the various sections of a large state like Texas--as has always been the case.

The economy could nose dive at some point in the future, of course, but we have not come to that point as yet in spite of all hysterics to the contrary. "We have nothing to fear but fear itself"--and another major terrorist attack.

We are Gloomy because
of the pathological hatred of Geroge Bush, a feeling which, as a life-time Republican and non-neo-con, I can understand even if I do not share it. This administration has been peculiarly bad at conveying its message, from Iraq (huge mistake) to amnesty (bigger mistake) to its tax cuts (wonderful), all we get are tounge-tied cliches and smirks. Even if the MSM shares some of the blame, they have set the tone, and it has been one of obfuscation, missed opportunities and a systematic repudiation of traditional small government conservatism. We are in a funk to a large degree because of the disconect between the ruling class, business and the people. Now we face two nadirs, McCain and Hussein - why would anyone be depressed with such prospects?

Small Businesses

I think this author should look at how small business are doing, both discretionary and non-discretionary goods and services.

Small businesses, at least the weak ones, are closing up shop. Discretionary spending like beauty salons are down in many areas 15 to 25%and I suspect there will be more consolidation of businesses.

Non-discretionary is soft or down as families and individuals shed excess assets like second cars.

See auto sales and the financial service industry performance. Residential construction and all connected to it are adjusting to the slow down as unemployment slowly rises.

Limiting options for illegals aliens is helping legal workers find employment - for now.

I beleive it is IMPERATIVE that we keep taxes low as individuals and small businesses adjust and reinvest in their homes and businesses in order to reduce the cost of energy and provide services that our clients will need with less disposable income.

I heard a rumor there will be an increase in the capitalization rate which will devalue commercial property and impact valuation and commercial property tax. However, I think this is just a rumor among small business who just got another tax increase they can't afford.

I'm just wondering what will happen when small businesses take another look at their bottom line in the coming months.


killer?
You wouldn't know the truth if it wore a name tag. The message is that in spite of overhyped real problems, as a whole the economy is doing better than the MSM would have you believe. To wit: I live in the county with one of the highest unemployment rates in a state which spearheaded the current slowdown(thanks Gov Granholm). I have a job in manufacturing. The plant I work in had some layoffs last winter, but now everyone and more are back and we even work overtime occasionally. Also, malls and restaurants are buzzing with activity. Yes, people are out of work but that is always the case. Yes, home prices are down, but mostly in high growth markets that were aggressively overbuilt until supply exceeded demand, kind of like a mirror image of the oil market. I know people are hurting, but not all of us. I've been unemployed and it sucks, but rather than have a pity party for myself, I got off my butt and found a job.

Dear killer and Talent Scout
Your ignorance of economics is exceeded only by your arrogance.

Killer, perhaps you shouls start looking for the facts and the truth, rather than Truth. It will make life easier.

Talent Scout;

The measure of an economy by how well business is doing is, in fact, the only measure that makes any sense.

But before we go any further with a discussion, it incumbent upon me to inform you that businesses are not social programs. They exist to make a profit. As a by-product they provide jobs to people who then go about their daily lives making decisions as to what they will expend the earned income from those jobs on.

This is the interdependant nature of the economic engine.

Now then, another thing to realize. And this one is the most important, is the fact that poeple do not buy products to give other people jobs, they buy products to have those products. And, of course, these purchaes impact the bottom line of...

That's right, business!

So either way, the score card comes out in the corporate bottom line.

Just because some people are buying a 32 inch plasma rather than a 65 inch plasma doesn't define the situation as a recession.

jd


Paolo...
What did the Democratic Carter admin do to get us free from middle-eastern monopolization of the oil market? What did Clinton and Mr. Earth (Gore) do during the 90s? What has the Dem-controlled Congress done since 2006 other than cry about Iraq war funding and try to impeach Bush?

Gimme a break.

A Libertarian View--
Sometimes, as if by accident, Republicans stumble on some ideas that are actually correct. Of course, if you want to fix the economy, you need to free up land to oil exploration. Of course, if you want energy independence, you need to simplify and streamline the process in building nuclear power plants--hundreds and hundreds of them.

Of course, Republicans do not really mean it. They are just providing eye-wash for their core constituency. They will never--repeat NEVER--follow through.

In the long run, as Petr Beckmann used to say, there really is no alternative to nuclear power. It is the only energy source that can provide gigawatts of power, with a safety record far superior to that of oil and coal, and (though I don't buy the silly global warming arguments), without adding any carbon to the atmosphere at all!

It is possible, right now, to equip cars with electric motors that could run off a cable or rail installed in or over roadways--much like electric trains in Europe. Nuclear power plants could provide the gigawatts of power necessary to run such a system, at a very reasonable cost. Develop such a system, and the price of oil would plummet overnight as demand evaporates. Use off-the-shelf breeder reactor technology, and nuclear power could easily provide power for the next several million years.

But Republicans won't touch that. Too controversial. Gosh, they might lose an election! (Actually, if they argued the points exactly as I have, they would win--but that's another story).

From my libertarian perspective, as always, freedom is the answer.

But liberals
need for our economy to be bad. They need for us to lose in Iraq. That's the ticket for their re-election hopes. Their constant pessimism, lies and whining have as much to do with these problems as anything else.

Socialism and Marxism
suck. I cannot comprehend why seeming rational people still think we should give socialism, or government control of industry, a try. It has ALWAYS failed. It cannot exist without tyranny. Socialist policies mandate that people do and behave as a few elites (the government in power) dictate. This is tyranny, no matter how you twist the language to label it. Socialist policies, by their very nature, must tell people what to buy, when they can buy it, and what kind of job to hold. And it always, always, always drives production down. Look it up.

Free market economies prosper. Not in a straight line upwards, but a general upward trend. Free people are free. Free to choose what to buy, when to buy it, what kind of job to seek and do. It is only when government gets its hand on it and try to influence it does an economic system develop problems that cannot be fixed (with more government intervention).

American became the greatest economic engine - BY FAR - in the world's history, bar none, because of FREE ENTERPRISE. The voluntary and peaceable exchange of goods and services. Look up the definitions of these words to understand this sentence.

China, even Communist China, is growing its economy. How? By enabling some principles of free market. We started free and are socializing. The opposite of the China model.

Careful with that Karl Case study
It looked at 14 countries in the 1980s and 1990s, a period in which we did not see the dramatic declines in housing values that we are seeing today. There was a housing slump in the early 1990s, after robust growth in real estate values in the 1980s, but it was not nearly as extensive as the steep decline in many markets today.

To suggest that people will not change their spending when they face an "upside down" mortgage situation is patently absurd. This situation is much more widespread now than in the last real estate slump, 15-17 years ago. Almost everyone who has bought in southern California in the last 5 years has seen either no increase or a decrease in the value of his home. One need not be in foreclosure to see the necessity of changing spending habits. Besides homeowners seeing the wisdom of paying a mortgage down faster, and shifting discretionary income into that effort, home equity is one of the biggest factors affecting home improvement spending, and major purchases like electronics and recreational gear. When there isn't any equity, people begin to restrict their spending for such items.

It is much financially scarier to owe $325K on a property in 2008 and have it be sellable only at $250K, than it was to owe $85K on a property in 1990, and have it sellable only for $78K. I know too many people who are, in fact, restricting their non-essential consumption today, and postponing home improvements, to accept evidence from the 1980s and 1990s that loss of home value doesn't affect spending at all.

But the key significance of real estate equity remains that it backs 80% of all small business start-ups and expansions, which in turn create 70% of new jobs. Real estate equity is not economically irrelevant from either the "supply-side" or the "demand side" perspective. Don't wish for people's homes to lose value.

One thing for certain,

the increase in gas and oil prices and in unemployment began when the Democrats gained control of Congress.

Doom and Gloom takes effort
This is simply saying what most americans really have to admit. There is no comparison to the great depression. Many people alive today may be too young to remember the end of Carter and beginning of Reagan. Whatever the reason for the doom and gloom crowd this was a good article. It was well researched, documented and supported.
Brian

Doom and Gloom takes effort
This is simply saying what most americans really have to admit. There is no comparison to the great depression. Many people alive today may be too young to remember the end of Carter and beginning of Reagan. Whatever the reason for the doom and gloom crowd this was a good article. It was well researched, documented and supported.
Brian

So one is suffering today
Under a manipulated economy that is under the control of a hand full of men, as long as Investors and manipulators like Soros make it big.

And while Middle Class Americans dare not complain about the debt, taxes, cost of living increases through an infationary fiat money system that enrich's bankers and government, else they are "gloom and doomers"

Want to see a more corrupt system?
Just take a look at any scam that rips off the old people, and there you have it.

Economical idiots today, or part of the scam is what we have.
And very few understand all the problems in America with debt, taxes, finance and inflation is all caused by the Federal Reserve banking THIEVES.

Honored by morons.

Sorry for this off the point
comment, but Diana, I would be curious as to your views about Pat Buchanan's column today.

The economy ...
If gas prices are so high, home values are going down and people feel the gloom and doom ...

Who are these people going to the movies and giving their money so that Panda Kung-Fu can open to $60M for the weekend?

Some might be using it as an escape but that is absurd behavior considering the "doom and gloom".

High and Lofty Views
Defining the economy by how well Corporations are doing makes me ill.

Anyone who speaks of the American Economy as praiseworthy because Wall Street is happy, is a liar.

Or the Economy is bad if Wall Street is sad.

The manipulation of the market and value of the "dollar" is a crime.
Even if it makes the bankers and the corporations super rich

Diana writes:
"Irwin ridicules the sky-is-falling view held by most Americans that the economy is "not just bad, it is run-for-the-hills terrible."
---
And to ridicule any person who is not leaping up and down for joy over the economy and is pointing out some truth of real problems, is just as stupid.

ok?

Diana
Each time I read your work, I search for the "Truth".It appears, that my search maybe never ending!I have decided not to discuss economics with Average Americans,so in your case I won't.But,what about "Ethics".Have we lost them,along with our wealth"?
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